A multi-approach strategy in climate attribution studies: Is it possible to apply a robustness framework?

Attribution studies investigate the causes of recent global warming. For a few decades the scientific community generally adopted dynamical models – the so-called Global Climate Models (GCMs) – for such an investigation. These models show the essential role of anthropogenic forcings in driving the temperature behaviour of the last half century. In the last period even other (data-driven) methodological approaches were adopted for attribution studies. This allows the scientific community to compare the results coming from these different approaches and to possibly increase their robustness. For such a purpose, the paper explores the possibility of applying a robustness framework, so far used only in the case of multi-model GCM ensembles, to a strategy including models from different methodological orientations, assessing such an application especially in the light of the independence issue.     

Evaluating the sustainability of diets–combining environmental and nutritional aspects

This study examined two methods for jointly considering the environmental impact and nutritional quality of diets, which is necessary when designing policy instruments promoting sustainable food systems. Both methods included energy content and 18 macro- and micronutrients in the diet, the climate impact, land use and biodiversity damage potential. In Method 1, the content of different nutrients in the diet was normalised based on recommended intake or upper levels for average daily intake and presented together with the environmental impacts, which were normalised according to estimated sustainable levels. In Method 2, the nutritional quality of different diets was considered by calculating their nutrient density score, and the environmental impact was then expressed per nutrient density score. Three diets were assessed; a diet corresponding to Nordic recommendations, the current average Swedish diet and a lifestyle Low Carbohydrate-High Fat (LCHF) diet. Method 1 clearly showed that the climate impact was far beyond the sustainable level for all diets, while land use was within the sustainability limit for the recommended diet, but not the other two. Comparisons based on nutrient density scores depended on the score used, but the current and LCHF diets had more impact than the recommended diet (less livestock products) for all but one score. Over- and under-consumption of nutrients were clearly shown by Method 1 but not possible to distinguish with Method 2, as normalisation was not possible, making it difficult to evaluate the absolute scale of the impacts when nutrient density scores were used. For quantitative information on the environmental and nutritional impacts of diets as support in decision-making processes, it is important that data presentation is transparent. There is limited value in reducing results to a low number of indicators that are easy to read, but difficult to interpret, e.g. nutrient density score. Method 1 allows combined assessment of diets regarding environmental impact and nutritional intake and could be useful in dietary planning and in development of dietary recommendations and other policy instruments to achieve more sustainable food systems.     

Changes in mineral soil organic carbon stocks in the croplands of European Russia and the Ukraine, 1990–2070; comparison of three models and implications for climate mitigation

Three soil carbon models (RothC, CANDY and the Model of Humus Balance) were used to estimate the impacts of climate change on agricultural mineral soil carbon stocks in European Russia and the Ukraine using detailed spatial data on land-use, future land-use, cropping patterns, agricultural management, climate and soil type. Scenarios of climate were derived from the Hadley Centre climate Version 3 (HadCM3) model; future yields were determined using the Soil–Climate–Yield model, and land use was determined from regional agricultural and economic data and a model of agricultural economics. The models suggest that optimal management, which entails the replacement of row crops with other crops, and the use of extra years of grass in the rotation could reduce Soil organic carbon (SOC) loss in the croplands of European Russia and the Ukraine by 30–44% compared to the business-as-usual management. The environmentally sustainable management scenario (SUS), though applied for a limited area within the total region, suggests that much of this optimisation could be realised without damaging profitability for farmers.     

The impact of sea-level rise along the Polish Baltic coast

A DTM (Digital Terrain Model) map and the analytical powers of GIS (Geographical Information System) were used in deterministic and probabilistic methods for analysis of inundation of a coastal area. These methods were applied to evaluate the effects of a rise in sea-level on the coastal zone of the Puck Lagoon (Poland) over a period of 100 years. The analysis evaluated the following aspects: the threat to man-made objects such as buildings and roads; changes in the impact of the sea on the coastal environment manifested as the frequency of flooding of grasslands and marshland in the coastal depression, and the formation of a dune embankment. The analysis covered a ca. 5 km stretch of low-lying coastline, in which there are two rapidly growing villages and a nature reserve. The study showed that a sealevel rise of 40 cm would increase the frequency of flooding in the area and would probably cause the dune ridge vegetation to deteriorate.     

Rural vulnerability to environmental change in the irrigated lowlands of Central Asia and options for policy-makers: A review

Climate change, land degradation and drought affect millions of people living in drylands worldwide. With its food security depending almost entirely on irrigated agriculture, Central Asia is one of the arid regions highly vulnerable to water scarcity. Previous research of land and water use in the region has focused on improving water-use efficiency, soil management and identifying technical, institutional and agricultural innovations. However, vulnerability to climate change has rarely been considered, in spite of the imminent risks due to a higher-than-average warming perspective and the predicted melting of glaciers, which will greatly affect the availability of irrigation water. Using the Khorezm region in the irrigated lowlands of northwest Uzbekistan as an example, we identify the local patterns of vulnerability to climate variability and extremes. We look at on-going environmental degradation, water-use inefficiency, and barriers to climate change adaptation and mitigation, and based on an extensive review of research evidence from the region, we present concrete examples of initiatives for building resilience and improving climate risk management. These include improving water use efficiency and changing the cropping patterns that have a high potential to decrease the exposure and sensitivity of rural communities to climate risks. In addition, changes in land use such as the afforestation of degraded croplands, and introducing resource-smart cultivation practices such as conservation agriculture, may strengthen the capacity of farmers and institutions to respond to climate challenges. As these can be out-scaled to similar environments, i.e. the irrigated cotton and wheat growing lowland regions in Central Asia and the Caucasus, these findings may be relevant for regions beyond the immediate geographic area from which it draws its examples.     

Finding the Teachable Moment: An Analysis of Information-Seeking Behavior on Global Warming Related Websites during the Release of The Day After Tomorrow

This paper investigates how the mass media may influence information-seeking behavior through an analysis of how the release of the movie The Day After Tomorrow, a fictional depiction of global warming causing catastrophic natural disasters, changed the information-seeking behavior of the public on global warming related websites. A “teachable moment” of elevated information-seeking activity was found to extend from 10 days before the release date of The Day After Tomorrow to 19 days after the movie release date. Using Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average modeling, a significant positive correlation was found between changes in media coverage of The Day After Tomorrow and changes in information-seeking activity, although the correlation did not support hypothesized time lags. These results are discussed in terms of information-seeking models, and new research directions are proposed to link agenda-setting research with the information-seeking literature.     

Renewable electricity policies,heterogeneity, and cost effectiveness

Renewable electricity policies promote investment in renewable electricity generators and have become increasingly common around the world. Because of intermittency and the composition of other generators in the power system, the value of certain renewable – particularly wind and solar – varies across locations and technologies. This paper investigates the implications of this heterogeneity for the cost effectiveness of renewable electricity policies. A simple model of the power system shows that renewable electricity policies cause different investment mixes. Policies also differ according to their effect on electricity prices, and both factors cause the cost effectiveness to vary across policies. We use a detailed, long-run planning model that accounts for intermittency on an hourly basis to compare the cost effectiveness for a range of policies and alternative parameter assumptions. The differences in cost effectiveness are economically significant, where broader policies, such as an emissions price, outperform renewable electricity policies.     

A Strategic Framework for Responding to Coral Bleaching Events in a Changing Climate

The frequency and severity of mass coral bleaching events are predicted to increase as sea temperatures continue to warm under a global regime of rising ocean temperatures. Bleaching events can be disastrous for coral reef ecosystems and, given the number of other stressors to reefs that result from human activities, there is widespread concern about their future. This article provides a strategic framework from the Great Barrier Reef to prepare for and respond to mass bleaching events. The framework presented has two main inter-related components: an early warning system and assessment and monitoring. Both include the need to proactively and consistently communicate information on environmental conditions and the level of bleaching severity to senior decision-makers, stakeholders, and the public. Managers, being the most timely and credible source of information on bleaching events, can facilitate the implementation of strategies that can give reefs the best chance to recover from bleaching and to withstand future disturbances. The proposed framework is readily transferable to other coral reef regions, and can easily be adapted by managers to local financial, technical, and human resources.     

The challenge of knowledge exchange in national policy impact assessment – A case of Finnish climate policy

Impact assessment (IA) is one of the most widely applied instruments for generating policy-relevant knowledge. However, the step-wise process, logic of linear knowledge transfer and influence of IA has frequently been criticised. Current IA procedures do not adequately address complex and unpredictable policy processes, such as the preparation of climate policies. Drawing on a framework of science–policy interface problems, we analyse knowledge exchange in a national climate policy IA case and discuss the reasons for the problems. We demonstrate various problems in knowledge use and production as well as in the balance between the demand for and supply of knowledge, such as ignoring the knowledge involved in the policy process, the monopoly held by certain knowledge providers and models, insufficient scoping and framing of the IA, poor interaction with knowledge providers and users, and inadequate planning and coordination of the process. We highlight the need for adding context-sensitive and tailored knowledge exchange practices to IA processes to enhance the use of existing knowledge in climate policy.     

The climate's long-term impact on New Zealand infrastructure (CLINZI) project - a case study of Hamilton City, New Zealand

Infrastructure systems and services (ISS) are vulnerable to changes in climate. This paper reports on a study of the impact of gradual climate changes on ISS in Hamilton City, New Zealand. This study is also the first of its kind to be applied to New Zealand ISS. In the future, the CLINZI project will extend to other areas of New Zealand. Using historical climate data and four climate change scenarios, we modelled the impact of climate change on aspects of water supply and quality, transport, energy demand, public health and air quality. Our analysis reveals that many of Hamilton City's infrastructure systems demonstrated greater responsiveness to population changes than to gradual climate change.