Storm impacts along European coastlines. Part 1: The joint effort of the MICORE and ConHaz Projects

The current paper discusses the topic of marine storm impact along European coastlines, presenting results from two FP7 Projects currently focusing on this topic, one working on the physical aspects of the problem (MICORE) and the other one on the socio-economic implications (ConHaz).The MICORE Project aims to provide on-line predictions of storm-related physical hazards (hydrodynamic as well as morphodynamic). The ConHaz Project addresses the socio-economic implications should these (or other) hazards actually materialize. Together these projects aim to deliver crucial information for emergency response efforts, while realizing the practical limitations for information processing and dissemination during crisis situations.The MICORE Project has developed and demonstrated on-line tools for reliable predictions of the morphological impact of marine storm events in support of civil protection mitigation strategies. The project specifically targeted the development of early warning and information systems to support short term emergency response in case of an extreme storm event. The current paper discusses in detail the outcome of an activity of databasing historical storm data. No clear changes in storminess were observed, except for some storm proxies (e.g. surges) and only at some locations (e.g. northern Adriatic, southern Baltic, etc.).The ConHaz Project undertook a desktop study of the methods normally used for evaluating the impact of marine storms and the associated coastal hazards considering direct costs, costs due to disruption of production processes, indirect costs, intangible costs, and costs of adaptation and mitigation measures. Several methods for cost estimation were reviewed. From the review it emerged that normally end-users only evaluate direct costs after the storms, while the cost of adaptation and mitigation measures is only done strategically in the context of Integrated Coastal Zone Management plans. As there is no standardized method for cost evaluations in this field, it is suggested that clear guidelines should be produced on the basis of simplicity for use by end-users. The integration between historical databases of the physical parameters of storms and detailed cost evaluation information would support the development of a knowledge background in end-users and justify the development of adaptation strategies.     

江苏沿海地区生态环境脆弱性分析

江苏沿海地区是自然保护区、滩涂湿地、珍稀与经济鱼类3场（产卵场、索饵场、越冬场）等的密集区,对于全球生物多样性的保护具十分重要的意义和价值,但同时又是典型的生态脆弱区,易受到外界环境的胁迫与干扰,新一轮沿海开发战略的实施将对沿海地区的生态环境带来更大的压力。在对沿海地区生态现状充分调研的基础上,科学梳理、总结了沿海地区生态环境的脆弱性,提出了减缓生态环境影响的对策与措施,以期为沿海地区可持续开发提供技术支撑。     

滨海新区经济增长与能源消费响应关系初探

在充分研究美国、日本等国及滨海新区能源消费与经济增长响应关系的基础上,借鉴工业化国家能源消费减物质化的规律和经验,对滨海新区能源与经济的协调问题进行探讨.研究结果表明,实现产业结构的跨越式演进和节能技术进步是推动滨海新区最终实现能源消费绝对减物质化的主要途径.     

Factors affecting the evacuation decisions of coastal households during Cyclone Aila in Bangladesh

Despite sincere efforts by concerned agencies and recent improvements in hazard warnings, thousands of at-risk people did not evacuate during Aila, a category-I tropical cyclone that struck southwestern coastal Bangladesh in 2009. This study investigated the responses of the people affected by Aila to cyclone warnings and associated evacuation orders, and unveiled behavioural aspects that explain why they did or did not comply with the evacuation orders. Utilising the primary data collected from 420 households living in the severely affected coastal sub-district Koyra, located in Khulna District, this study found that although more than 97% of the households had received cyclone warnings and evacuation orders before Aila's landfall, only around 26% had evacuated. We also examined this study's empirical findings for factors that had dissuaded people from complying with the evacuation orders. Relevant test statistics along with results from principal component analysis suggested that the significant and systematic absenteeism of households from disaster preparedness training appears to be one of the key determinants that affected their evacuation decisions, along with factors related to warning messages, the attributes of cyclone shelters, risk perception, and socioeconomic aspects. A number of recommendations are also presented in this study for people at risk to improve their evacuation rates in future emergencies, not only to save their own lives but also to save their livestock.     

The German Wadden Sea coast: reclamation and environmental protection

Why did the reclamation of tidal marshes along the German Wadden Sea coast continue until the 1990s while the country is known for its awareness of the need for environmental protection? A study of the recently adopted reclamation policy in Schleswig-Holstein indicates that since the 1960s, the primary objective of embankments along the coast has been for coastal defence. While focusing their attention on this policy from the late 1970s, environmentalists have been objecting against any reclamation projects. Their main argument has been the ecological richness of the tidal marshes and the negative effects of embankments on the Wadden Sea. During the 1990s, objections from environmentalists, together with the fruition of the Coastal Defence Plan, recent economic factors, new legislation and sea level rise have led to a gradual decline of reclamation projects along the German Wadden Sea coast.     

DETECTING BASE FLOW IMPACTS IN COASTAL PLAIN STREAMS1

ABSTRACT: An established trend analysis methodology was applied to the problem of identifying and quantifying stream base flow impacts from water withdrawals and water loss through interbasin transfers. Impacts were simulated using base flow values selected from two U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) continuous record streamflow sites located within the Pinelands of southern New Jersey. Study site base flows were regressed against index site base flows with monotonic and step trend tests applied to the residuals from the regression model. The smallest, significantly detectable (α= 0.10) percentage reduction within a given simulation was used as an estimate of the sensitivity of a trend test. Evaluation of the trend analysis methodology led to the following practical considerations regarding trend test sensitivity. The proportion of study site base flow variability explained by index site base flows should be maximized, while at the same time minimizing positive, first-order autocorrelation in the regression residuals. Given the importance of detecting autocorrelation, missing values should be avoided or minimized. The quarterly (three-month) interval reduced the magnitude of autocorrelation relative to a shorter two-month sampling interval. Sensitivity appeared to improve when equalizing the number of values before and after a base flow impact(s) while seasonally biased sampling appeared to reduce sensitivity. Based primarily on past trend detection studies, nonparametric tests were deemed a better choice over their parametric counterparts, due to the lack of stringent data distributional requirements coupled with little or no loss of power even when applied to normally distributed data.     

An integrated approach to mangrove dynamics and management

The main objective of the MADAM project (Mangrove Dynamics and Management) is to generate the scientific basis enabling the sustainable stewardship of the resources of the Caeté mangrove estuary in Northeast Brazil in the sense of integrated coastal (zone) management. To achieve this, it is necessary to acquire in-depth knowledge of natural processes as well as of the relevant institutional, cultural, economic, social and political dynamics. Causal linkages within the ecosystem, as well as between ecosystem, economy and society, are analysed and explained via dynamic and trophic modelling. Scenario construction is intended to forecast the effects of acute or chronic interference on utilized resources, and to answer wider, management-related questions (e.g. restoration of destroyed areas, utilization potential for aquaculture). This paper describes the project strategy as developed and modified in the context of research results from the initial 2-yr project phase. It is argued that a continuous discussion process is essential to assess the validity of the strategies formulated at the beginning of a medium-time project, particularly if the project is of interdisciplinary nature.     

Physical damage to coastal dunes and ecological impacts caused by vehicle tracks associated with beach camping on sandy shores: a case study from Fraser Island,Australia

As coastal populations expand, demands for recreational opportunities on beaches and coastal dunes grow correspondingly. Although dunes are known to be sensitive to direct human disturbance and provide irreplaceable ecosystem services (e.g. erosion control, critical habitat and nesting sites), dunes serve as campsites for large numbers of people (∼90,000 p.a.) on the ocean-exposed shores of Fraser Island, Australia. Campsites are located in the established dunes and can only be accessed with 4WD vehicles along tracks cut directly from the beach through the foredunes. Here we quantified the extent of physical damage to foredunes caused by this practice, and tested whether human-induced physical changes to foredunes translate into biological effects. Of the 124 km of ocean-exposed beaches, 122 km (98%) are open to vehicles driven on the beaches, and camping zones cover 28.7 km or 23% of the dunes. A total of 235 vehicle tracks are cut across the foredunes at an average density of eight tracks per km of beach. These tracks have effectively destroyed one-fifth (20.2%) of the dune front in camping zones, deeply incising the dune-beach interface. There is evidence of accelerated erosion and shoreline retreat centred around vehicle tracks, resulting in a “scalloping” of the shoreline. No dune vegetation remains in the tracks and the abundance of ghost crabs (Ocypode spp.) is significantly reduced compared with the abutting dunes. Because current levels of environmental change caused by dune camping may not be compatible with the sustainable use of coastal resources and conservation obligations for the island (listed as a World Heritage Area and gazetted as a National Park), restoration and mitigation interventions are critical. These will require spatial prioritisation of effort, and we present a multi-criteria ranking method, based on quantitative measures of environmental damage and ecological attributes, to objectively target rehabilitation and conservation measures. Ultimately, coastal management needs to develop and implement strategies that reconcile demands for human recreation, including beach camping, with conservation of coastal dune ecosystems.     

Prioritizing urban marine habitats for conservation

Urban coastal wetlands and adjoining coves and embayments can provide habitat for significant numbers of waterbirds, despite being subject to high levels of stressors from human activities. Yet to date little emphasis has been placed on identifying these areas and prioritizing them for conservation. In this study I outline a three-step process to identify and prioritize local sites for conservation using waterbird abundance and diversity and an index of the risk to a site from marine development, and apply it to a series of urban coastal sites in two North Atlantic estuaries located in the northeast US. By combining waterbird abundance and species richness with the risk from marine development I generated a ranked list of sites with the highest listed sites having high bird diversity and low risk from development. From this list individual sites can be prioritized for conservation, and various protection scenarios can be evaluated and compared. For example, 7 of the top 10 ranked sites in Boston Harbor, combined with sites already protected under local, state, or federal statutes, represented over half of the total bird diversity in the Harbor. Similarly, in Narragansett Bay 6 of the top 10 sites when combined with sites already protected represent 48.8% of the Bay’s bird diversity. Formally protecting these sites, all of which are at relatively low risk from marine development, could result in the conservation of considerable waterbird habitat at low economic cost (i.e., from loss of development potential). Other ranking scenarios (by bird diversity alone, or by risk from marine development) were also evaluated and compared to the combined ranking. Identification of sites with high bird diversity and low risk from development could provide important information for local land acquisition groups and planning boards when considering options for the conservation of urban coastal habitats.     

Spatial analysis of traffic and risks in the coastal zone

Management of the coastal zone for the purposes of conservation and sustainability is a well-described concept in the literature. This paper describes the importance of modelling various forms of maritime traffic as an intrinsic element of this process. Effective use of GIS in this context implies extensive data acquisition and cleaning, vessel path simulation, traffic density maps, and incident (spills or accidents) distribution when applicable. Risks can be determined by evaluating detrimental occurrences relative to exposure levels. Effective visualization and quantitative analyses can then be fruitfully applied to various coastal zone management spheres, such as oceans use planning, emergency response planning, and marine protected area delineation.