进一步保持和发扬我党的"真正优势"

本文在全面论述邓小平同志关于"共同的理想"和"铁的纪律"是我党"真正优势"光辉论断的基础上,指出目前我们在保持和发扬"真正优势"方面存在的不足,并认为中国共产党要顺利解决"两大历史性课题",必须进一步保持和发扬自己的"真正优势".     

First evidence of regular common cuckoo, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Cuculus canorus</Emphasis>, parasitism on eastern olivaceous warblers, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Hippolais pallida elaeica</Emphasis>

Coevolution is defined as specialized relationships between species that lead to a reciprocal evolutionary change. A particularly suitable model system for studying coevolution is the interactions between obligate avian brood parasites and their hosts. The common cuckoo (Cuculus canorus, hereafter cuckoo) is a well-known brood parasite, which utilizes a range of smaller passerines as hosts. However, warblers of the genus Hippolais have rarely been reported as being victims of cuckoos, and furthermore, few data exist on the occurrence of antiparasite defenses in these hosts. In this study, we examined possible host–parasite coevolution between cuckoos and eastern olivaceous warblers (Hippolais pallida elaeica, hereafter olivaceous warblers) in three closely situated areas in northwestern Bulgaria. The olivaceous warbler has never been reported to be a regular cuckoo host. However, the present study, carried out in 2001–2003 shows that the olivaceous warbler is regularly and heavily parasitized by the cuckoo in this area. Parasitism rate was high (26.6%, 34/128) and consistent among years, with some variation between areas. The cuckoo egg mimicry was moderately good, and olivaceous warbler rejection rate of such eggs was 50%. Cuckoo eggs laid in olivaceous warbler nests had a whitish to whitish-green ground color, and the majority appeared to be distinctly different from cuckoo eggs found in other host species in the area. The olivaceous warbler proved to be a rather good host for cuckoos as 20.6% (7/34) of cuckoo eggs laid produced fledglings, a breeding success comparable to other suitable hosts in Europe. This is the first in-depth study of brood parasitism in a warbler of the genus Hippolais, and cuckoos parasitizing olivaceous warblers probably represent a previously unknown gens.     

Predators choosing between patches with standing crop: the influence of switching rules and input types

Where prey arriving in a patch are not consumed immediately, they will accumulate. Predators are then presented with a prey density or standing crop that increases through further input, and decreases through the consumption by predators. Firstly, I show that the switching rule of predators has a significant influence on the expected predator equilibrium distribution in such a dynamic system. Three rules are compared; for all rules, analytical solutions are calculated (where possible). To test their plausibility for natural situations, predator distributions are simulated given the assumption that each predator obtains individual patch profitability estimates by using a common learning rule. As long as prey arrive in the patches in constant numbers per time unit, the first rule leads to input matching because predators stop switching when consumption in the two patches is equal. The other two rules, where predators continue to sample both patches even in the equilibrium state, lead to predator distributions where the more profitable patch is underused. The final equilibrium depends on the exact assumptions of the switching rule; however, it is independent of interference. But if the input delivered into a patch is a function of the current prey standing crop (for example in a reproducing prey population), predator and prey distributions will not reach an equilibrium in most cases: either standing crops increase indefinitely, or they approach zero, with all predators concentrating on the better patch. Only a small number of parameter sets show intermediate crops that are reasonably stable. With this input type, only up to 54% of the simulations reach the expected distribution. In a system with competition for dynamic standing crop, it is therefore essential to know the type of input and the switching-rule used by predators to be able to predict equilibrium predator distributions. Received: 17 March 1995/Accepted after revision: 5 November 1995     

Ideal free distributions under predation risk

 We examine the trade-off between gathering food and avoiding predation in the context of patch use by a group of animals. Often a forager will have to choose between feeding sites that differ in both energetic gain rate and predation risk. The ideal site will have a high gain rate and low risk of predation. However, intake rate will often decrease when the patch is shared with other foragers and it may be optimal for some individuals to feed elsewhere. Within the framework of ideal free theory, we investigate the distribution of foragers that will equalise individual fitness gains. We focus on a two-patch environment with continuous inputs of food. With reference to existing experimental studies, we examine the effects of risk dilution, food input rates and an animal’s expectations of the future. We identify the effect of total animal numbers when one patch is subject to predation risk and the other is safe. Conditions under which the difference in intake rate in the two patches is constant are identified, as are conditions in which the ratio of animals in the two patches is constant. If current conditions do not alter future expectations an increase in input rates to the patches promotes increased use of the risky patch. Yet, if conditions are assumed to persist indefinitely the opposite effect is seen. When both patches are subject to predation risk, dilution of risk favours more extreme distributions, and may lead to more than one stable distribution. The results of these models are used to critically analyse previous work on the energetic equivalence of risk. This paper is intended to help guide the development of new experimental studies into the energy-risk trade-off. Received: 10 February 1995/Accepted after revision: 1 October 1995     

Synchrony in egg-laying and reproductive success of neighboring common murres,Uria aalge

Common murres (Uria aalge) are highly colonial; pairs often breed at the highest possible densities, in bodily contact with neighbors. At Bluff, a colony in western Alaska, we tested for synchrony in egg laying at various spatial scales and found little evidence for higher synchrony, either within study plots of 15–195 pairs, or within subplots containing several pairs, than among plots in a 5-year study. Egg laying of neighbors generally was more synchronous than expected based on overall frequency distributions in laying dates, however. Breeding success was positively correlated with the number of breeding neighbors and the number of neighbors tending eggs or nestlings at the time of egg laying. Breeding success of pairs with neighbors was positively related to the breeding success of neighbors. Pairs that produced eggs synchronously with at least one neighboring pair had higher success than those that began breeding either before or after their neighbors. Most reproductive failures at Bluff are due to accidental egg loss and predation on eggs by common ravens, Corvus corax, soon after laying. By occupying space where a raven might otherwise land and defending their own eggs, active breeding neighbors locally reduce the probability of egg predation. Active breeding neighbors also are less likely to flush and accidentally dislodge nearby eggs when disturbed than are nonbreeders. Murres breeding synchronously with neighbors have the highest assurance of the presence of active breeding neighbors both at the time of egg laying and throughout their reproductive attempts. Groups of neighboring murres can be considered small “selfish herds,” demonstrating by-product mutualism through their continued presence and defense of their own eggs and nestlings. Despite the advantages of breeding synchronously with neighbors, early breeding may often be favored, however. Received: 22 January 1996/Accepted after revision: 16 June 1996     

Flood information systems: Needs and improvements in Eastern India

Flood warning systems offer a large potential for reducing human losses and property damage in flood-prone regions. This article illustrates why official organized systems should not be relied on completely in either developing or developed societies. It then discusses an indigenous flood warning system in a rural area of Eastern India, its value, and its importance in providing an alternative means of detecting, interpreting, and relaying flood warning information to the ultimate users of this information, i.e., those populations most at risk from floods.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is operated by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research and is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Egg adoption can explain joint egg-laying in common eiders

Hypotheses regarding the evolution and maintenance of intraspecific nest parasitism were tested with data collected during a 3-year study of common eiders (Somateria mollissima) breeding near Churchill, Manitoba. The nest parasitism rate was highest (42.4% of nests) during the year with the highest nest density and the best environmental conditions, and lowest (20.2% of nests) in the year with the lowest nest density and the poorest environmental conditions. Over the nesting season, parasitic eggs were laid at the same time as normally laid eggs. Most parasitic eggs (>75%) were laid before the host female laid her third egg. The majority of the parasitic eggs were the first or second egg produced by the parasitic female. When a parasitic egg was laid before or on the same day as the host female initiated her clutch, the probability of her first egg being depredated before incubation was significantly lowered. First- and second-laid eggs suffered a high rate of predation probably because nesting females do not attend their clutch until their second or third egg is laid. Hypotheses that some females use intraspecific nest parasitism to parasitize the parental care of other females were inconsistent with these data. Egg adoption is a likely explanation for the prevalence of females incubating parasitic eggs in this population. Received: 30 September 1997 / Accepted after revision: 6 May 1998     

Groundwater depletion in India: Social losses from costly well deepening

We develop a dynamic groundwater model that incorporates both groundwater pumping and investment in deeper wells and apply the model to the arid, alluvial aquifer region of Northern India that is experiencing rapid depletion. We compute the potential benefits of regulating groundwater use by comparing the net benefits of groundwater under optimal management to the net benefits under a common pool regime with two different cost structures: one with flat electricity tariffs, which are widespread in India, and a second with full marginal cost electricity pricing. Using numerical simulation, we find that the opportunity to invest in deeper wells significantly exacerbates the common pool problem and suggests the potential for large benefits (66% of common pool benefits) from optimally managing groundwater use or new drilling. Flat tariffs exacerbate the problem, but large gains (almost 23%) remain even if farms are charged the full marginal cost of electricity.     

Integrated assessment of agricultural policies with dynamic land use change modelling

With about half of its territory being farmed, agriculture is the main land use in the European Union (EU). As over 10% of the total EU manufacturing output comes from the agri-food sector, it also is an economic factor of great importance. Moreover, EU policy in this sector has far-reaching consequences ranging from the EU's status as a global trade partner to landscape preservation and development. The LUMOCAP Policy Support System is targeted towards policy makers in the European Commission (EC) and its Member States (MS) and aims to provide support in the field of sustainable agricultural and rural development. To this end it incorporates an integrated model with socio-economic and bio-physical processes, operating at different spatial scales. For supporting integrated assessment, a large number of policy levers is included as inputs for these models and outputs are transformed into policy-relevant social, economic and environmental indicators. The whole system is framed in a flexible, modular and easy to use software package that is useable for process experts and policy-analysts alike.This paper describes the integrated model, the individual models and a first calibration of the system. It demonstrates the system's behaviour for typical scenario runs and concludes with a reflection on the current status of the system and some recommendations for further development.     

The Literature Aftermath Of The Brundtland Report ‘Our Common Future’. A Scientometric Study Based On Citations In Science And Social Science Journals

Two major multidisciplinary bibliographic databases, the Science Citation Index and the Social Science Citation Index were searched to collect science and social science journal articles published in the 1987–2001 period with the report Our Common Future among their references. A statistical overview is given about the trends and patterns revealed by the bibliometric/scientometric analysis of the retrieved literature. National and regional distributions as well as publication channels and thematic features are considered. During the period under study, the word sustainability became the dominating term of the field, and operative questions like those of management, technology and urbanization came into the forefront of interest.Readers should send their comments on this paper to:BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.