Provisioning rules and chick competition in asynchronously hatching common terns (Sterna hirundo)

Interactions between nestling birds and their parents are models for examining parent–offspring communication and sibling competition. Most studies have focused on species where young are restricted to a nest. However, offspring of many species are mobile and fed by parents for an extended period post-hatch. These chicks mobility may provide an opportunity to examine the role of signalling and physical competition on parental feeding decisions. We examined parental provisioning rules in relation to offspring behaviour and hatching order (i.e., competitive ability) in a species with mobile young, the common tern. We determined that about 95% of feedings were directed to the first chick to reach the parent when it landed with food. We developed a probabilistic model to predict the likelihood of a chick reaching the parent first, and thus receiving food. Our model showed that begging intensity, feeding history, and the interaction between begging intensity and relative proximity to the parent best predicted which chick would arrive first. Increased begging was associated with arriving first significantly more when a chick was relatively further from the parent than when it was closer than its siblings. Independently of these factors, larger, earlier-hatched chicks were more likely to be fed than smaller, later-hatched chicks. Additional analyses showed that parents landed closer to more intensively begging chicks, however, increased begging did not explain the advantage of earlier-hatched chicks because begging intensity did not vary with hatching order. Instead, earlier-hatched chicks were more likely to outrun later-hatched siblings and reach the parent first.     

Implementing the Water Framework Directive: Contract Design and the Cost of Measures to Reduce Nitrogen Pollution from Agriculture

The performance of different policy design strategies is a key issue in evaluating programmes for water quality improvement under the Water Framework Directive (60/2000). This issue is emphasised by information asymmetries between regulator and agents. Using an economic model under asymmetric information, the aim of this paper is to compare the cost-effectiveness of selected methods of designing payments to farmers in order to reduce nitrogen pollution in agriculture. A principal-agent model is used, based on profit functions generated through farm-level linear programming. This allows a comparison of flat rate payments and a menu of contracts developed through mechanism design. The model is tested in an area of Emilia Romagna (Italy) in two policy contexts: Agenda 2000 and the 2003 Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform. The results show that different policy design options lead to differences in policy costs as great as 200–400%, with clear advantages for the menu of contracts. However, different policy scenarios may strongly affect such differences. Hence, the paper calls for greater attention to the interplay between CAP scenarios and water quality measures.     

Serving the Common Interest in U.S. Forest Policy: A Case Study of the Healthy Forests Restoration Act

In the United States, the common interest often is conceived as a by-product of the pluralist, interest-group-driven democratic process. Special interests dominate in many political arenas. Consequently, we have lost the language, vocabulary, and ability to talk about the common interest. The way to reverse this trend is to develop and practice with new tools that allow us to articulate what we mean by the common interest in specific contexts. In this article, we leveraged the literature on procedural, substantive, and pragmatic decision making to illustrate how they work together to demonstrate whether and how the common interest was served in three case studies of Healthy Forests Restoration Act implementation on the Apache-Sitgreaves National Forest in Arizona. In two of the cases we found that the common interest was mostly served, while in the third case it was not. Our results raise questions about the ability of procedural criteria or substantive criteria alone to determine effectiveness in decision making. When evaluated together they provide a more complete understanding of how the common interest is or is not served.

危险评价中的数据环境

本文通过分析危险评价的数据来源、数据的准确程度和危险评价模型，论述了数据环境与危险评价的关系，指出了数据的不确切必然会影响到危险评价质量，但应用数据进行危险评价是完全必要的。关键是如何提高数据的精确程度和模型的真实程度，使评价结果更趋准确、可靠。     

Troubles on the way: An analysis of the challenges faced by multi-stakeholder platforms

Multi‐stakeholder platforms (MSPs) have been widely promoted as a promising means of resolving conflicts over natural resources, first in developed countries and, more recently, as a global good practice. However, many MSPs have been implemented in an unfavourable context — primarily of social inequities — and have not met initial high expectations. The article analyzes the challenges MSPs face in an unfavourable context, and identifies five main issues:

• ? Power relationships;
• ? Platform composition;
• ? Stakeholder representation and capacity to participate meaningfully in the debates;
• ? Decision‐making power and mechanisms; and finally
• ? Cost of setting up an MSP.

The analysis is mainly based on two case studies of MSPs set up under inauspicious conditions. The first focuses on water user associations in South Africa, the second on a negotiation platform set up to resolve conflicts over a water and sanitation project in Bolivia. It is argued that MSPs should be seen less as an ideal communication process, and more as a negotiation process — always imperfect — but where positive outcomes may nevertheless outweigh negative ones, if and when the above‐mentioned issues are adequately taken into account.     

Toxic effects of chlorpyrifos on lysozyme activities,the contents of complement C3 and IgM,and IgM and complement C3 expressions in common carp (Cyprinus carpio L.)

Chlorpyrifos is one of the organophosphate pesticides widely used in agricultural practices throughout world. It has resulted in a series of toxicological and environmental problems, such as impacts on many non-target aquatic species, including fish. In the present study, toxic effects of chlorpyrifos on lysozyme activities, contents of IgM and complement C3, and the expressions of IgM and complement C3 at mRNA level in common carp were evaluated by acute exposure of 15 (1/10 LC₅₀) or 75 μg L⁻¹ (1/2 LC₅₀) of chlorpyrifos for 7 d. The results of acute toxicity tests showed that the 96 h-LC₅₀ of chlorpyrifos for common carp was determined to be 149 μg L⁻¹. We also found that chlorpyrifos promoted lysozyme activities at the earlier stages of exposure but inhibited it at the late stages in the serum, hepatopancreas, and spleen of common carp. Furthermore, it was observed that chlorpyrifos-exposure decreased IgM contents in fish serum and spleen while increased it in kidney. No obvious change was found in the contents of complement C3 in fish spleen, while a slight increase of complement C3 was observed in fish serum and kidney after 1 d of chlorpyrifos-exposure. In addition, the results of quantitative real-time PCR showed that IgM and complement C3 expressions were up-regulated at the earlier stage of exposure but down-regulated at later stage. Our results indicate that chlorpyrifos causes immunotoxicity to common carp.     

An Examination of Governance Arrangements at Kisakasaka Mangrove Reserve in Zanzibar

This study employs insights largely derived from critical reflections on the common pool resources (CPR) theory to examine the current governance arrangements in place to manage the mangrove forest at Kisakasaka, in Zanzibar, Tanzania. Kisakasaka was used as a site for a community-based management pilot project of forest resources in Zanzibar. After some initial success in setting up a local management structure and regulating access to the mangrove for mainly charcoal production, there are now clear indications that forest conditions have deteriorated dramatically with concomitant ongoing resource use problems for local villagers who have relied heavily on forest resources as a source of cash income. Extra-local factors, such as urban population increases and associated market pressures for charcoal, are also conjectured to overlay and interact with the institutional problems at Kisakasaka. As a result, over concern about the deterioration in the condition of the mangrove forest, the responsible government authority decided not to renew the community-based governance arrangements after an initial five-year pilot period. While revealing the inadequacies of existing governance arrangements and of its relationship to deteriorating forest conditions at Kisakasaka, this study concludes by suggesting an approach to more fully understand forces driving local resource management and use.     

Work domain analysis for air traffic controller weather displays

INTRODUCTION: Adverse weather conditions have a major impact on National Airspace System (NAS) operations. They create safety hazards for pilots, constrain the usable airspace for air traffic control (ATC), and reduce the overall capacity of the NAS. A system-wide dissemination of weather information to controllers could theoretically improve safety and efficiency. PROBLEM: However, it is currently unclear what weather information would be beneficial for tactical operations. Furthermore, no previous research has empirically evaluated optimal presentation designs for ATC weather displays. Ill-designed weather displays can cause safety hazards by presenting redundant information (i.e., by increasing the cognitive load) and display clutter (e.g., by interfering with the visual extraction of traffic data). METHOD: In the present paper, we outline our use of cognitive work analysis (CWA) techniques for the assessment of weather information needs for terminal controllers. RESULTS: Specifically, we describe how the CWA modeling tools helped us reveal instances in the terminal domain where weather information is lacking or insufficiently disseminated. We used our CWA results to drive the development of weather display concepts and to set up a high-fidelity simulation capability. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: By means of high-fidelity simulations, we can empirically evaluate controller weather information needs in order to propose weather displays for increased aircraft safety and efficiency of terminal operations.     

Predicting local population distributions around a central shelter based on a predation risk-growth trade-off

Animals face trade-offs between predation risk and foraging success depending on their location in the landscape; for example, individuals that remain near a common shelter may be safe from predation but incur stronger competition for resources. Despite a long tradition of theoretical exploration of the relationships among foraging success, conspecific competition, predation risk, and population distribution in a heterogeneous environment, the scenario we describe here has not been explored theoretically. We construct a model of habitat use rules to predict the distribution of a local population (prey sharing a common shelter and foraging across surrounding habitats). Our model describes realized habitat quality as a ratio of density- and location-dependent mortality to density-dependent growth. We explore how the prey distribution around a shelter is expected to change as the parameters governing the strength of density dependence, landscape characteristics, and local abundance vary. Within the range of parameters where prey spend some time away from shelter but remain site-attached, the prey density decreases away from shelter. As the distance at which prey react to predators increases, the population range generally increases. At intermediate reaction distances, however, increases in the reaction distance lead to decreases in the maximum foraging distance because of increased evenness in the population distribution. As total abundance increases, the population range increases, average population density increases, and realized quality decreases. The magnitude of these changes differs in, for example, ‘high-’ and ‘low-visibility’ landscapes where prey can detect predators at different distances.     

The extraction and utilization of local and scientific geospatial knowledge within the Bluff oyster fishery, New Zealand

This paper assesses the Bluff oyster fishery in New Zealand as a case study in common pool resource management. It discusses ways in which modern information technology, augmented by low-tech data gathering strategies and community ethnography, can be used to produce an integrated scientific and local knowledge-inspired fishery database that lends itself to fostering collaboration in resource management and planning. The specific context and state of the oyster fishery in Bluff are described. Issues regarding undocumented and ephemeral intergenerational knowledge, much of which is geospatial in nature, on the fishery, the current crisis that many see in the future of the fishery, and a lack of cohesion or common sense of purpose between the stakeholder groups are discussed. It is argued that the digital resource that results from the integration of local and scientific knowledge and the potential community building processes that can ensue from collaboration and dialogue around this centrepiece are of central importance in developing an oyster fishery management plan that is holistic in concept and sustainable in purpose.