危险评价中的数据环境

本文通过分析危险评价的数据来源、数据的准确程度和危险评价模型，论述了数据环境与危险评价的关系，指出了数据的不确切必然会影响到危险评价质量，但应用数据进行危险评价是完全必要的。关键是如何提高数据的精确程度和模型的真实程度，使评价结果更趋准确、可靠。     

Troubles on the way: An analysis of the challenges faced by multi-stakeholder platforms

Multi‐stakeholder platforms (MSPs) have been widely promoted as a promising means of resolving conflicts over natural resources, first in developed countries and, more recently, as a global good practice. However, many MSPs have been implemented in an unfavourable context — primarily of social inequities — and have not met initial high expectations. The article analyzes the challenges MSPs face in an unfavourable context, and identifies five main issues:

• ? Power relationships;
• ? Platform composition;
• ? Stakeholder representation and capacity to participate meaningfully in the debates;
• ? Decision‐making power and mechanisms; and finally
• ? Cost of setting up an MSP.

The analysis is mainly based on two case studies of MSPs set up under inauspicious conditions. The first focuses on water user associations in South Africa, the second on a negotiation platform set up to resolve conflicts over a water and sanitation project in Bolivia. It is argued that MSPs should be seen less as an ideal communication process, and more as a negotiation process — always imperfect — but where positive outcomes may nevertheless outweigh negative ones, if and when the above‐mentioned issues are adequately taken into account.     

Toxic effects of chlorpyrifos on lysozyme activities,the contents of complement C3 and IgM,and IgM and complement C3 expressions in common carp (Cyprinus carpio L.)

Chlorpyrifos is one of the organophosphate pesticides widely used in agricultural practices throughout world. It has resulted in a series of toxicological and environmental problems, such as impacts on many non-target aquatic species, including fish. In the present study, toxic effects of chlorpyrifos on lysozyme activities, contents of IgM and complement C3, and the expressions of IgM and complement C3 at mRNA level in common carp were evaluated by acute exposure of 15 (1/10 LC₅₀) or 75 μg L⁻¹ (1/2 LC₅₀) of chlorpyrifos for 7 d. The results of acute toxicity tests showed that the 96 h-LC₅₀ of chlorpyrifos for common carp was determined to be 149 μg L⁻¹. We also found that chlorpyrifos promoted lysozyme activities at the earlier stages of exposure but inhibited it at the late stages in the serum, hepatopancreas, and spleen of common carp. Furthermore, it was observed that chlorpyrifos-exposure decreased IgM contents in fish serum and spleen while increased it in kidney. No obvious change was found in the contents of complement C3 in fish spleen, while a slight increase of complement C3 was observed in fish serum and kidney after 1 d of chlorpyrifos-exposure. In addition, the results of quantitative real-time PCR showed that IgM and complement C3 expressions were up-regulated at the earlier stage of exposure but down-regulated at later stage. Our results indicate that chlorpyrifos causes immunotoxicity to common carp.     

An Examination of Governance Arrangements at Kisakasaka Mangrove Reserve in Zanzibar

This study employs insights largely derived from critical reflections on the common pool resources (CPR) theory to examine the current governance arrangements in place to manage the mangrove forest at Kisakasaka, in Zanzibar, Tanzania. Kisakasaka was used as a site for a community-based management pilot project of forest resources in Zanzibar. After some initial success in setting up a local management structure and regulating access to the mangrove for mainly charcoal production, there are now clear indications that forest conditions have deteriorated dramatically with concomitant ongoing resource use problems for local villagers who have relied heavily on forest resources as a source of cash income. Extra-local factors, such as urban population increases and associated market pressures for charcoal, are also conjectured to overlay and interact with the institutional problems at Kisakasaka. As a result, over concern about the deterioration in the condition of the mangrove forest, the responsible government authority decided not to renew the community-based governance arrangements after an initial five-year pilot period. While revealing the inadequacies of existing governance arrangements and of its relationship to deteriorating forest conditions at Kisakasaka, this study concludes by suggesting an approach to more fully understand forces driving local resource management and use.     

Work domain analysis for air traffic controller weather displays

INTRODUCTION: Adverse weather conditions have a major impact on National Airspace System (NAS) operations. They create safety hazards for pilots, constrain the usable airspace for air traffic control (ATC), and reduce the overall capacity of the NAS. A system-wide dissemination of weather information to controllers could theoretically improve safety and efficiency. PROBLEM: However, it is currently unclear what weather information would be beneficial for tactical operations. Furthermore, no previous research has empirically evaluated optimal presentation designs for ATC weather displays. Ill-designed weather displays can cause safety hazards by presenting redundant information (i.e., by increasing the cognitive load) and display clutter (e.g., by interfering with the visual extraction of traffic data). METHOD: In the present paper, we outline our use of cognitive work analysis (CWA) techniques for the assessment of weather information needs for terminal controllers. RESULTS: Specifically, we describe how the CWA modeling tools helped us reveal instances in the terminal domain where weather information is lacking or insufficiently disseminated. We used our CWA results to drive the development of weather display concepts and to set up a high-fidelity simulation capability. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: By means of high-fidelity simulations, we can empirically evaluate controller weather information needs in order to propose weather displays for increased aircraft safety and efficiency of terminal operations.     

Multi-level governance for large marine commons: Politics and polycentricity in Palau's protected area network

This paper brings together institutional theories of polycentricity and critical human geography theory on scalar politics to advance understanding of the form and function of nested, polycentric regimes for the governance of large-scale common pool resources. We focus on institutional changes associated with a national marine protected area network in Palau through which national government and NGOs gain influence in local decision-making processes. Influence is gained through an attempt to scale up common-pool resource governance to an ecologically-relevant spatial scale in an effort to protect coral reef resilience and biodiversity across Palau. An institutional approach informed by scalar politics brings into focus potential tradeoffs between organizing governance reform around ecologically versus institutionally relevant scales. Our analysis suggests that prioritization of ecologically-relevant scales in institutional reform resulted in more nested but less polycentric institutional arrangements governing the network. We conclude that less distributed decision-making in the overall nested governance system could threaten the sustainability and resilience of coral reefs in the long-term by constraining institutional innovation and diversity. Results demonstrate the potential for interdisciplinary dialog to advance the research frontier on multi-level governance for large common pool resources.     

Specific biomagnification of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans in tufted ducks (Aythya fuligula), common cormorants (Phalacrocorax carbo) and their prey from Lake Shinji,Japan

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDDs/DFs) were detected in waterfowl such as common cormorants, tufted ducks, and their prey, namely fish and bivalves from Lake Shinji, Japan. The concentration of total PCDDs/DFs-TEQ was found to be higher in the muscle tissues of common cormorants than in those of tufted ducks. The results of hierarchical cluster analysis implied that the residue distribution pattern of PCDD/DF homologues was considerably different between these two species. Furthermore, biomagnification factors (BMFs) were estimated from bivalves as prey to tufted duck muscles as target organs. Despite the highest concentrations of 1,3,6,8- and 1,3,7,9-TeCDD in tufted ducks and their prey, however, the BMFs of these isomers were calculated to be lower than those of the toxic 2,3,7,8-substituted PCDDs/DFs. On the other hand, log BMF of toxic 2,3,7,8-substituted PCDDs/DFs were significantly higher for lower chlorinated isomers than those of the higher chlorinated isomers. The biota-sediment accumulation factors (BSAFs) of PCDDs/DFs were also estimated using shijimi clam and fish samples against sediment from Lake Shinji. The average BSAFs were estimated and ranged from 4.0×10⁻³ to 2.2×10⁻¹ and 2.0×10⁻⁴ to 2.0×10⁻¹ for bivalve and fish samples, respectively. Based on calculated BMFs and BSAFs, the total PCDD/DF-TEQ levels in the tufted duck were estimated to have been lowest (2.0 pg TEQ/g dry weight basis) in 1947 and highest (9.8 pg TEQ/g) in 1971.     

Inherent conflicts at the coast

Because choice is conflict, decision-making is necessarily about conflict resolution. Choices are necessary because the options are mutually exclusive but the nature of this inherent conflict varies. Typically, these conflicts are multidimensional. In coasal zones, the complex interactions between systems makes decision-making particularly complex; in particular, environmental interests are themselves frequently in conflict. In making a choice, it is important to determine why that choice is necessary in the first place. There are further conflicts about the objectives to be satisfied by the decision process; between the determination of the best outcome and the best decision process. Social scientists centre upon the requirement for a fair decision process rather than upon seeking an optimum outcome. Unlike physical scientists who seek more and better information, social scientists focus upon the development and maintenance of institutions.     

Opportunities and challenges for Common Agricultural Policy reform to support the European Green Deal

The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is the European Union's main instrument for agricultural planning, with a new reform approved for 2023–2027. The CAP intends to align with the European Green Deal (EGD), a set of policy initiatives underpinning sustainable development and climate neutrality in the European Union (EU), but several flaws cast doubts about the compatibility of the objectives of these 2 policies. We reviewed recent literature on the potential of CAP environmental objectives for integration with the EGD: protection of biodiversity, climate change mitigation and adaptation, and sustainable management of natural resources. The CAP lacks appropriate planning measures, furthering instead risks to biodiversity and ecosystem services driven by landscape and biotic homogenization. Funding allocation mechanisms are not tailored to mitigate agricultural emissions, decreasing the efficiency of climate mitigation actions. The legislation subsidies farmers making extensive use of synthetic inputs without adequately supporting organic production, hindering the transition toward sustainable practices. We recommend proper control mechanisms be introduced in CAP Strategic Plans from each member state to ensure the EU is set on a sustainable production and consumption path. These include proportional assignment of funds to each CAP objective, quantitative targets to set goals and evidence-based interventions, and relevant indicators to facilitate effective monitoring of environmental performance. Both the CAP and the EGD should maintain ambitious environmental commitments in the face of crisis to avoid further degradation of the natural resources on which production systems stand.     

The extraction and utilization of local and scientific geospatial knowledge within the Bluff oyster fishery, New Zealand

This paper assesses the Bluff oyster fishery in New Zealand as a case study in common pool resource management. It discusses ways in which modern information technology, augmented by low-tech data gathering strategies and community ethnography, can be used to produce an integrated scientific and local knowledge-inspired fishery database that lends itself to fostering collaboration in resource management and planning. The specific context and state of the oyster fishery in Bluff are described. Issues regarding undocumented and ephemeral intergenerational knowledge, much of which is geospatial in nature, on the fishery, the current crisis that many see in the future of the fishery, and a lack of cohesion or common sense of purpose between the stakeholder groups are discussed. It is argued that the digital resource that results from the integration of local and scientific knowledge and the potential community building processes that can ensue from collaboration and dialogue around this centrepiece are of central importance in developing an oyster fishery management plan that is holistic in concept and sustainable in purpose.