Bayesian model-based cluster analysis for predicting macrofaunal communities

To predict macrofaunal community composition from environmental data a two-step approach is often followed: (1) the water samples are clustered into groups on the basis of the macrofauna data and (2) the groups are related to the environmental data, e.g. by discriminant analysis. For the cluster analysis in step 1 many hard, seemingly arbitrary choices have to be made that nevertheless influence the solution (similarity measure, clustering strategy, number of clusters). The stability of the solution is often of concern, e.g. in clustering by the program. In the discriminant analysis of step 2 it can occur that a water sample is misclassified on the basis of the environmental data but on further inspection happens to be a borderline case in the cluster analysis. One would then rather reclassify such a sample and iterate the two steps. Bayesian latent class analysis is a flexible, extendable model-based cluster analysis approach that recently has gained popularity in the statistical literature and that has the potential to address these problems. It allows the macrofauna and environmental data to be modelled and analyzed in a single integrated analysis. An exciting extension is to incorporate in the analysis prior information on the habitat preferences of the macrofauna taxa such as is available in lists of indicator values. The output of the analysis is not a hard assignment of water samples to clusters but a probabilistic (fuzzy) assignment. The number of clusters is determined on the basis of the Bayes factor. A standard feature of the Bayesian method is to make predictions and to assess their uncertainty. We applied this approach to a data set consisting of 70 water samples, 484 macrofauna taxa and four environmental variables for which previously a five cluster solution had been proposed. The standard for Bayesian estimation, the Gibbs sampler, worked fine on a subset with only 12 selected taxa but did not converge on the full set with 484 taxa. This is due to many configurations in which the assignment probabilities are all very close to either 0 or 1. This convergence problem is comparable with the local optima problem in classical cluster optimization algorithms, including the EM algorithm used in Latent Gold, a Windows program for latent class analysis. The convergence problem needs to be solved before the benefits of Bayesian latent class analysis can come to fruition in this application. We discuss possible solutions.     

Changes in soil organic matter composition after afforestation of arable farmland in northeast China

Since the 1970s, a substantial area of arable farmland in a semi-humid area of northeast China has been planted as deciduous forests (Populus tomentosa Carr.). This study investigates the effects of afforestation on soil organic carbon (SOC) content and the chemical composition of the soil. Soil samples (Calcic chernozem) were collected from the upper 10?cm of paired arable land and secondary forests established 5 and 25 years previously. Carbon isotope analysis and pyrolysis–gas chromatography/mass spectrometry were used to determine SOC composition. The results show that (i) compared to the arable land, five years of afforestation caused a decrease in SOC and N concentration, while 25 years of afforestation resulted in an increase in SOC content; (ii) stable isotope δ¹³C analyses of the forest soils show gradual loss of crop-derived C and an accumulation of forest-derived C; and (iii) afforestation increased lignin abundance and decreased decompositional activity in the 25-year-old forest topsoil. Higher amounts of short-/mid-chain aliphatic compounds were observed in the 5-year-old forest (5–10?cm); and (iv) the arable soil contained substantially higher amounts of decomposed plant material and microbially derived substances. The results obtained suggest that long-term afforestation increases the SOC concentration, and alters the chemical composition of SOC.     

Determination of chemical characterizations of activated carbons from various raw materials

The objectives of this research were to identify the surface chemical features of activated carbons made of peat, bituminous coal and coconut shell, as well as examine the specific relationship of these properties by using statistical analyses. The results showed that the peat carbons contained much more amounts of Ca, S, P and Mg; however, the bituminous carbons possessed higher contents of Si, Al and Fe. In addition, the content ratios of Al to Si exhibited the Al enrichment phenomenon occurred after the heat treatment. A nonlinear correlation between the pH value and the difference in the amounts of basic and acidic groups was developed. Unfortunately, there were no specific mass ratios found among the acidic functional groups. The results of correspondence analysis (CA) gave a promising confirmation about the EDXRF analysis; moreover, the results of factor analysis (FA) fairly agreed with the findings suggested by CA. Both could explain the specific chemical features of activated carbons made from different materials, especially the CA could differentiate each other in detail.     

运用相对组成探针技术研究青藏高原POPs大气传输与来源

为探讨青藏高原大气POPs(持久性有机污染物)空间分布趋势、来源和传输特征,应用POPs相对组成探针技术对16个大气被动采样观测点的数据进行分析,将青藏高原空间尺度上的采样点聚为不同的组,以探讨污染物来源及大气传输过程. 结果表明:青藏高原大气中的HCB(六氯苯)主要来自于本地燃烧,其中人类活动较为频繁的城镇(波密、格尔木、玉树、拉萨、工布江达、拉孜、那曲)具有较高的HCB相对组成(25%～74%). 青藏高原南缘(包括珠峰、然乌、萨嘎)以南亚正在使用的农药——HCHs(六六六)和α-Endo(硫丹)为特征(二者的相对组成之和超过了40%),凸显了南亚污染排放经长距离传输对青藏高原的影响. 剔除HCB影响后,青藏高原中部、东南部河谷地区(鲁朗、拉孜、拉萨、日喀则、工布江达、昌都)及那曲、狮泉河因具有较高的o,p'-DDT相对组成而聚为一组,平均值为40%,表明这些采样点可能受到本地污染排放的影响.      

Volcanic hazard or economic destitution: hard choices in Banños,Ecuador

In 1999, the entire population of tourism-dependent Baños, Ecuador, some 16,000 people, was evacuated in anticipation of a violent eruption of Mount Tungurahua. Subsequently, many areas in the risk zone experienced heavy ash falls, lahars, and landslides, although no cataclysmic events occurred. Many small rural communities were also evacuated. While these communities became impacted by the hazard, Baños avoided most direct effects. Conditions for all evacuees were grim, and their conditions compounded because Ecuador was simultaneously undergoing profound economic and political crises. Absent livelihood alternatives, community leaders from Baños organized a return to their town even though it remained under an evacuation order. An aggressive campaign brought tourists and more residents back and Baños revived economically; however, this was achieved at the cost of hazard awareness among both groups, tourists and residents, and public safety became compromised.     

Acid Deposition in the Tuscan Appennines During the Dry Period 1988-89

The typical parameters of acid precipitation are evaluated in the forest of Vallombrosa (Tuscan Appennines) during the dry period 1988-89. Individual rain events (dry and wet deposition) were sampled in a clearing of the forest and below the canopy of an evergreen tree as well as a deciduous broadleaf tree.

In atmospheric precipitation the pH values usually vary around 4.4, with neutralization in the hot season due to calcareous material from distant sources. Relatively large concentrations of Pb and Cd are found in rain, but only in a small amount in canopy leachate. Aluminium, manganese and iron are more significantly washed off than Pb and Cd.     

Sensitivity of Ozone Production to the Nmhc Composition,Aerosol Back-Scattering and High Chimney Emission

Abstract

In this paper, three sensitivity studies are designed to analyze the effect of the NMHC (Non-Methane HydroCarbon) composition, the aerosol back-scattering and the high chimney NO _x emission to the photochemical prodution of ozone by using a one-dimensional photochemistry-diffusion model under a favourable meteorological condition. Measurements of the NMHC composition in Taipei indicated that the percentage of iso-butene, cis-2-butene, trans-2-butene and benzene in a unit volume was much higher than of those observed in other major cities. the high ratio of benzene was directly linked to its high percentage in gasoline. As to the unusually high amount of iso-butene, cis-2-butene and trans-2-butene, more researches are needed to identify their source. Concerns are raised as to how productive is NMHC composition is to the photochemical production of the surface ozone. A rough estimate shows that the total reactivity of the Taipei NMHC composition is about 1.21 × 10^?9 cm³ s^?1 which is 1.6 times that of the Los Angeles (LA) NMHC composition, while the simulated noon peak will be different by 28 ppbv, i.e. 18% more than that simulated with a LA composition.

Meanwhile, high aerosol loading is a serious problem in Taipei. the attenuation of the UV radiation by aerosols cannot be ignored. A numerical simulation shows that the noon ozone level will decrease from 178 to 141ppbv, i. e. about 21% reduction, with deterioration of the visual range from 85 to 5 km.

In the southern Taiwan, industry parks are mixed with the populated Kaohsiung city, hence the large emission of NO _x from high chimneys cannot be ignored. in this study, NO _x is assumed to be emitted in the layer between 235–460 m high with an emission rate of 0.05 or 0.145 ppbv/sec. the results show that the NO _x emitted from the elevated stack lead to a considerable reduction of surface ozone. Such conclusion is obtained due to the fact that a one-dimensional model is used in this paper. Whereas, if a three-dimensional regional model was used, then a higher productivity of ozone downstream would be simulated.     

Community pressure for green behavior

The desire to avoid rousing community hostility may encourage firms to behave in an environmentally responsible manner. Firms may engage in corporate social responsibility (CSR) to maintain community support and/or to regain the support of a community where it has been lost. It has been conjectured that such ‘informal regulation’ could effectively replace formal intervention in some settings, and usefully complement it in others. We explore these conjectures with mixed results. Informal regulation is necessarily less efficient than a well-designed formal alternative and the pattern of green behavior induced by the threat of community hostility may increase or decrease welfare. The existence of community pressure may increase or decrease the optimal calibration of a formal intervention (in this case an environmental tax) and may complement or detract from the incentives generated by an optimally calibrated tax.     

Exploring community assembly through an individual-based model for trophic interactions

Traditionally, the dynamics of community assembly has been analyzed by means of deterministic models of differential equations. Despite the theoretical advances provided by such models, they are restricted to questions about community-wide features. The individual-based modeling offers an opportunity to link bionomic features to patterns at the community scale, allowing us to understand how trait-based assembly rules can arise by dynamical processes. The present paper introduces an individual-based model of community assembly, and discusses some of the major advantages and drawbacks of this approach. The model was framed to deal with predation among size-structured populations, incorporating allometric constraints to energetic requirements, movement, life-history features and interaction relationships among individuals. A protocol of assembly procedure is proposed, in which a period of intense species introductions is followed by a period without introductions. The resultant communities did not present any pattern of trait over-dispersion, meaning that the multivariate distances of bionomic features among co-occurring species were neither larger nor more regular than expected in a random collection of species. It suggests a weak influence of interspecific interactions in the model environment and individualistic rules of coexistence, driven mainly by the spatial structure. This highlights that trait over-dispersion and resource partitioning should not be considered a necessary condition for coexistence, even in communities entirely structured by internal processes like predation and competition.     

Network-based exploration and visualisation of ecological data

Networks – structured graphs consisting of sets of nodes connected by edges – provide a rich framework for data visualisation and exploratory analyses. Although rarely used for the visualisation of ecological data, networks are well suited to this purpose, including data that one might not normally think of as a network. We present a simple method for transforming a data matrix into network format, and show how this can be used as the basis for interactive exploratory analyses of ecological data.The method is demonstrated using a database of marine zooplankton samples acquired in the Southern Ocean. The network analyses revealed zooplankton community structures that are in good agreement with previously published results. Variations in community structure were observed to be related to the temporal and spatial pattern of sampling, as well as to physical environmental factors such as sea ice cover. The analyses also revealed a number of errors in the data, including taxon identification errors and instrument failures.The method allows the analyst to generate networks from different combinations of variables in the data set, and to examine the effects of varying parameters such as the scales of spatial, temporal, and taxonomic aggregation. This flexibility allows the analyst to rapidly gain a number of perspectives on the data and provides a powerful mechanism for exploration.