Using computer graphics to reveal temporal changes in urban population density patterns

Population distributions change substantially over time in major metropolitan areas. Knowledge of these variations by time of day, day of the week and other time periods can be helpful to disaster planners who need to prepare response plans to earthquakes and other disasters that will injure and kill large numbers of people. Computer graphics can display data that describe these changing population patterns in ways that can be more easily comprehended than page after page of printed numbers. Several different illustrations of 3-D population density maps drawn by the ASPEX computer program are presented. Each illustrates a guideline that can be used to prepare maps that deal with the many ways of looking at urban population density distributions and their temporal changes. Those maps can help disaster planners gain a realistic perception of population density distributions by enabling them to see what cannot be seen from the actual physical structure of a large metropolitan region.     

Riparian vegetation instream flow requirements: A case study from a diverted stream in the Eastern Sierra Nevada,California, USA

A methodology is described that allows determination of instream flow requirements for maintenance of riparian trees. Tree-ring data revealed strong relationships between tree growth and stream flow volume for riparian species at Rush Creek, an alluvial stream within an arid setting; these relationships allowed development of models that predict growth rates from hydrologic variables. The models can be used to assess instream flow requirements under the assumption that certain levels of growth are necessary to maintain the population. There is a critical need for development and use of instream flow methodologies for riparian vegetation, since present methodologies focus on needs of aquatic animals (e.g., fish) and may underestimate needs of the entire riparian ecosystem.     

Understanding the role of chronic environmental disturbance in the context of island biogeographic theory

Island biogeographic theory offers a powerful conceptual framework for understanding and managing insular diversity. The human impact on insular environments is constantly growing, especially because of tourism. We performed a simulation study aimed at improving the understanding of the role of disturbance in islands. We also built an individual-oriented computer model of an archipelago subjected to chronic disturbance of varying degree. Results are discussed in the light of island biogeographic theory. Relevant results show the importance of autoecological characteristics of the species considered, regarding the attainment of equilibrium and the species-area relationship in both disturbed and undisturbed cases. The possibility of bias in the predictions of the equilibrium model is pointed out. Fundamental criticisms concerning the ecological relevance of the equilibrium theory are discussed.     

Net drift in an atypical estuary,Long Island Sound

Long Island Sound is an estuary with two-layered flow at the eastern opening to the ocean and a salinity gradient of about 5 parts per thousand between the eastern and western extremes. Tidal currents, wind-driven circulation, and river inflow and fresh water influx are investigated as factors affecting the net drift. Current measurements in eastern Long Island Sound indicate that the tidal circulation features that predominate there do not normally affect the net drift at the New Haven dump site. Drifter returns and a numerical model indicate that seasonal prevailing winds seem to be the primary cause of the net drift in central Long Island Sound.     

Shopping studies for regional planning

This paper is based on a shopping study carried out by the Department of Geography, University of Utrecht, during 1983. It is concerned with retail planning research for larger regions and starts with a state of the art review of retail planning research in the Netherlands. The aim, in developing a new research strategy, was to reduce time and costs through using computer facilit es for both data handling and data collection. There is discussion of methodology and some outcomes to demonstrate the possibilities of the strategy.     

What are expert systems and how can they contribute to Planning?

The possible role of computer‐based expert systems in town and country planning has yet to be formalised and many planners are not aware of the potential and limitations of software developments in this area. This paper defines expert systems for planners, explains their operation and outlines a possible area, within the development control process, where such systems could provide a beneficial contribution to planning.     

Opportunity costs of implementing forest plans

Intellectual concern with the National Forest Management Act of 1976 has followed a course emphasizing the planning aspects of the legislation associated with the development of forest plans. Once approved, however, forest plans must be implemented. Due to the complex nature of the ecological systems of interest, and the multiple and often conflicting desires of user clientele groups, the feasibility and costs of implementing forest plans require immediate investigation. For one timber sale on the Coconino National Forest in Arizona, forest plan constraints were applied and resulting resource outputs predicted using the terrestrial ecosystem analysis and modeling system (TEAMS), a computer-based decision support system developed at the School of Forestry, Northern Arizona University, With forest plan constraints for wildlife habitat, visual diversity, riparian area protection, and soil and slope harvesting restrictions, the maximum timber harvest obtainable was reduced 58% from the maximum obtainable without plan constraints.Former Graduate Student at Northern Arizona University.     

Simulating the effects of Glen Canyon Dam releases on Grand Canyon river trips

The Shechter-Lucas wilderness use simulation model (WUSM) has been modified to quantify the effects of fluctuating Glen Canyon Dam releases on Grand Canyon river trips. The model now simulates changes in flow as predicted by the Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation computer model for the Colorado River. This revised WUSM provides data on several flow-related effects, including delays at rapids, encounters with other parties, and the time available for visiting attraction sites. Nine flow alternatives are evaluated and compared. Analysis of these outputs provides useful information to the Bureau of Reclamation on how the operation of Glen Canyon Dam effects river trips through Grand Canyon National Park.     

Application of the wilderness travel simulation model to the Appalachian Trail in Vermont

The wilderness travel simulation model estimates complex recreation use patterns in park and wilderness environments. The model was applied to a section of the Appalachian Trail in Vermont, a linear, long-distance, multiple-access trail system characteristic of the eastern United States. Many portions of the trail, including the study area, are now experiencing high use. The model estimated the average number of trail encounters per party day to be 3.3 and the average number of camp encounters per party night to be 2.3. Other measures of recreation use were also estimated that should prove useful to trail management and administration. Three trail management scenarios were tested, providing several preliminary insights to managers: the desirability of use redistributions as opposed to across-the-board reductions and needed emphasis on spatial use patterns and campsite encounters. Only minor modifications to the program were needed in applying the model to the trail environment and the model functioned accurately according to the validity tests performed.