论计算机事故风险

本文提出了计算机事故风险概念，分析了计算机事故风险的成因、特征及其危害。     

Initial decision analysis (IDA): a participatory approach for developing resource policies

Initial decision analysis (IDA) is a microcomputer based decision-making technique that is organized so that a rational, step-by-step, procedure can be followed to use existing knowledge to develop resource policies. The IDA process provides a systematic way for participants to define their own problem and to explore jointly alternative solutions. IDA is particularly suited to resolving complex problems involving many groups with conflicting interests. IDA is illustrated with data from the US Forest Service's Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the 1985 to 2030 Resource Planning Act Program for the United States. Four policy options are evaluated: maximization of timber production, of grazing, and of wilderness, and a dominant use policy that concentrates timber management on productive sites. Policies were evaluated using a new mathematical satisficing procedure. Mathematical satisficing of simulated policy consequences showed that, for selected performance standards, current RPA policies are superior to the four alternative policies examined.     

城市防洪工程风险决策方法

本文着重讨论了与城市防洪工程决策制定密切相关的几个问题：①城市防洪工程设计标准的确定；②现有防洪工程的性能评估，③最优防洪工程对策的确定等，并在风险分析的基础上，给出了解决上述问题的方法。所得结论可为城市防洪工程决策的制定提供较为科学的理论依据。     

胶带输送机运输事故树可靠性的计算机模拟

以胶带输送机运输事故树的计算机模拟过程为例 ,介绍了对事故树可靠性进行计算机模拟的原理、算法以及程序运行步骤 ,编制了模拟程序。用笔者提出的理论、方法及模拟程序 ,对平顶山煤业集团一矿胶带输送机运输事故进行了事故树分析与求解 ,同时将模拟程序运行结果与最小割集法求得的理论值进行了对比 ,计算结果误差小 ,所得结论准确可靠 ,为类似事故的模拟分析提供了一种新的方法和途径     

Modeling the long-term effects of fuelwood harvests on Pinyon-Juniper Woodlands

In the Southwestern United States, increasing demand for firewood has quickly promoted pinyon-juniper woodlands to commercial status. Slow recovery rates for pinyon and juniper and inadequate mensuration data present significant obstacles to predictive management efforts. Many National Forest districts have witnessed continued fuel use for at least the past 100 years. To explore the need for long-term analysis at the district level, we have developed FORMAN I, a computer simulation written in FORTRAN IV that models prolonged fuel harvesting and its impact on pinyon-juniper woodlands. The technique is well-suited for historical analyses and we comply with an initial application that involves the suggested impact of prehistoric peoples on a marginal woodland in Chaco Canyon, New Mexico. To accentuate the significance of the simulation, we have deliberately overestimated woodland parameters while maintaining conservative annual rates for firewood procurement. A low-density woodland (less than 14.8 cords/ha) is completely depleted within 200 years when subjected to tenth-through-twelfth century estimates of human demography for the canyon. Interesting conclusions are drawn from the lack of pinyon-juniper recovery at Chaco over the past millennium. Traditional assumptions, such as the pristine state of Southwestern vegetation prior to historic settlement and subsequent invasion of marginal grasslands by pinyon and juniper, are questioned.     

An easy method to design gas/vapor relief system with rupture disk

Tank discharge gas/vapor flow problems are frequently encountered in both practice and design. To perform this type of design calculation, the first step is to identify whether the flow is choked or not through a trial-and-error solution of an equation for adiabatic flow with friction from a reservoir through a pipe. Developing a direct method without any trial-and-error to identify a choking condition would be helpful for expediting the flow calculations. This paper presents an easy and quick method to identify the choking of gas flow for an emergency relief system consisting of a rupture disk and vent piping. This greatly simplifies the design calculations. The proposed method for validating the venting adequacy of existing ERS circumvents the iteration calculation and the use of Lapple charts. Three case studies for the design of vent piping for rupture disks support the proposed method.     

A disaster scene simulation system in 3D for oil transmission stations: Design and implementation

The disaster scene in three-dimensional (3D) plays a crucial role in disaster emergency management and risk communication of oil transmission stations. However, existing research for the disaster scene mainly focuses on reproducing the disaster environment and rarely predicts the damage state of the disaster-affected object. This paper proposes an object-oriented modeling method that utilizes a multilevel decomposition pattern for disaster scenes. This method combines earthquake vulnerability assessment with 3D visualization technology to predict and characterize the damage state of critical infrastructure in oil transmission stations. To enhance earthquake risk perception, a simulation system is designed and developed, which allows for the construction of virtual scenes and quick simulation of disaster scenes in 3D. The case application shows that the system improves the 3D modeling efficiency of disaster scenes and enhances public awareness of earthquake risks. The simulation system can provide technical support for seismic mitigation planning and emergency management decision-making at oil transmission stations and has good application prospects.     

Critical factors in effective construction waste minimization at the design stage: A Shenzhen case study,China

Construction waste minimization at the design stage is a key strategy in effective waste reduction. However, it seems that few studies focus on exploratory factors that can significantly improve the design of construction waste minimization. This paper addresses this research gap by presenting a set of critical factors that inform and improve the practice of waste minimization design, particularly in the context of Shenzhen, China. Nineteen potential factors which can influence effective waste minimization are presented based on related official guidelines, reports and literature. Top institutions in Shenzhen that have received a Grade A building design certification were surveyed through a questionnaire. From this survey, six critical factors are derived: (1) large-panel metal formworks, (2) prefabricated components, (3) fewer design modifications, (4) modular design, (5) waste reduction investment and (6) economic incentive. The applicability and significance of the identified critical factors for effectively designing waste minimization are also explored. These critical factors not only provide designers and project managers with a useful set of criteria for effective design strategies to reduce construction waste, but also serve as valuable references for the government to formulate related construction waste minimization regulations.     

The brief as an instrument of policy

A review of the use of planning and design briefs by local authorities in the United Kingdom was carried out in 1982–83 to test whether the role of the brief as an instrument of local policy and as a promotional tool in the development process was being fully exploited. The paper provides a state of the art review, presents a summary of the findings and offers some comments on the results. It concludes that most authorities now use briefs as part of their normal planning procedures, but that there is potential which is not yet being exploited.     

Design training and aesthetic evaluation: An intergroup comparison

A number of studies have observed differences in the evaluation of visual, aesthetic stimuli between those with and without professional training in art and design. If exposure to design training underlies such differences it follows that evidence of training effects should be observable when comparing subjects at different stages of design training, and not observable when comparing subjects at different stages of non-design training. In addition, this evidence should be consistent with directional predictions. The study reported in this paper investigated this question using a sample of 192 trained and untrained subjects in an evaluative task. Subjects were from two departments (Design and Computer Studies) of the same educational establishment and comprised balanced groups of lecturers, 1st, 2nd and 3rd year undergraduate students. The results obtained demonstrated evaluative differences and patterns of association both within and between the subject groups consistent with a training hypothesis.