对SARS疫情预测与控制的数学模型研究——一种基于一般流传病模型的改进方法

笔者从一个简单的传染病数学模型着手,在考虑了SARS病毒的规律和具体控制方法的影响因素后,对一般传染病疫情的确定型预测模型进行改进,并引入ρ、α及β等随机系数,从疫情控制前、控制后、控后改进来建立对疫情预测和控制的数学模型,从而更加精确地刻画出SARS的发展和传播规律、人们的控制方法与其控制效果之间的关系,给出了模型的算法,并对其内涵及与疫情控制的关系给以评述.最后,用某地区实际数据验证了控后改进型数学模型与疫情发展规律符合,为定量研究这类传染病提供了简明实用的定量分析方法,具有一定的现实意义.     

Acid rain in Asia

Acid rain has been an issue of great concern in North America and Europe during the past several decades. However, due to the passage of a number of recent regulations, most notably the Clean Air Act in the United States in 1990, there is an emerging perception that the problem in these Western nations is nearing solution. The situation in the developing world, particularly in Asia, is much bleaker. Given the policies of many Asian nations to achieve levels of development comparable with the industrialized world—which necessitate a significant expansion of energy consumption (most derived from indigenous coal reserves)—the potential for the formation of, and damage from, acid deposition in these developing countries is very high. This article delineates and assesses the emissions patterns, meteorology, physical geology, and biological and cultural resources present in various Asian nations. Based on this analysis and the risk factors to acidification, it is concluded that a number of areas in Asia are currently vulnerable to acid rain. These regions include Japan, North and South Korea, southern China, and the mountainous portions of Southeast Asia and southwestern India. Furthermore, with accelerated development (and its attendant increase in energy use and production of emissions of acid deposition precursors) in many nations of Asia, it is likely that other regions will also be affected by acidification in the near future. Based on the results of this overview, it is clear that acid deposition has significant potential to impact the Asian region. However, empirical evidence is urgently needed to confirm this and to provide early warning of increases in the magnitude and spread of acid deposition and its effects throughout this part of the world.     

Use of watershed characteristics to select control streams for estimating effects of metal mining wastes on extensively disturbed streams

Impacts of sediments and heavy metals on the biota of streams in the copper-mining district of southwestern Montana were examined by comparing aquatic communities of impacted streams with those of control streams. Control streams were chosen through the use of a technique that identifies similar streams based on similarities in their watershed characteristics. Significant differences between impacted and control sites existed for surface substrate, riparian vegetation, and the number of macroinvertebrate taxa. These results revealed that: (a) chemical and physical habitats at the impacted sites were disrupted, (b) the presence of trout was an inadequate measure of ecological integrity for these sites, and (c) watershed classification based on a combination of mapped terrestrial characteristics provided a reasonable method to select control sites where potential control sites upstream and downstream were unsuitable.     

化工园区恶臭异味管控技术框架初探

针对当前化工园区面临异味投诉问题的迫切挑战,探索一套以监测设备为基础、信息平台为手段和管控服务为核心的新技术框架,既有助于企业达标排放,又推动了园区环境质量持续改善。阐述了从国家到园区层面异味管控模式的三大目标,以如东化工园区为例,从设计有效技术框架、筛选异味优控因子、建设监测站点、搭建信息平台和建立管控服务等方面对技术框架进行了探讨;其次,基于“设备+平台+服务”综合管控模式,实现如东化工园区环境效益、经济效益和社会效益的有机统一;此外,为深化和推广如东化工园区异味管控模式,提出建立“点—线—面”监测网络、一体化管理平台和运维服务机制等建议,以期为我国化工园区恶臭异味管控提供参考。     

Migration and control of purple loosestrife (Lythrum salicaria L.) along highway corridors

The east-west density gradient and the pattern and mode of migration of the wetland exotic, purple loosestrife (Lythrum salicaria L.), were assessed in a survey of populations along the New York State Thruway from Albany to Buffalo to determine if the highway corridor contributed to the spread of this species. During the peak flowering season of late July to early August, individual colonies of purple loosestrife were identified and categorized into three size classes in parallel belt transects consisting of the median strip and highway rights-of-way on the north and south sides of the road. Data were also collected on the presence of colonies adjacent to the corridor and on highway drainage patterns. Although a distinct east-west density gradient existed in the corridor, it corresponded to the gradient on adjacent lands and was greatly influenced by a major infestation at Montezuma National Wildlife Refuge. The disturbed highway corridor served as a migration route for purple loosestrife, but topographic features dictated that this migration was a short-distance rather than long-distance process. Ditch and culvert drainage patterns increased the ability of purple loosestrife to migrate to new wetland sites. Management strategies proposed to reduce the spread of this wetland threat include minimizing disturbance, pulling by hand, spraying with glyphosate, disking, and mowing.Contribution 719 of the National Fisheries Research Center-Great Lakes, US Fish and Wildlife Service, 1451 Green Road, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48105, USA.     

POLLUTIONAL ASPECTS OF PESTICIDES IN NATURAL STREAMS

The extensive use of synthetic organic pesticides in this country during the past twenty-five years has resulted in widespread pollution of our water resources. An obvious detrimental effect of such pollution has been observed in the numerous fish kills that have occurred. The most widely used pesticides, and the ones that have been implicated in the vast majority of the pollutional episodes, are the chlorinated hydrocarbon insecticides. These compounds, generally speaking, have almost no solubility in water, are subject to very slow microbial degradation if any at all, and are so resistent to natural degradation forces they can persist almost indefinitely in aqueous environments; characteristics that are all detrimental from a stream pollution standpoint. In addition, studies have shown that, as a group, the chlorinated hydrocarbons are more toxic to higher forms of aquatic life than other chemicals widely used for pest control. Because of these undesirable characteristics, present trends are to discontinue using these highly toxic, persistent compounds for pest control in outdoor areas. Legislation banning the sale of DDT has been introduced. Similar legislation controlling the use of several of the chlorinated hydrocarbon pesticides is probably the most effective way to reduce pollution.     

Aspects of planning in Scotland: an introductory paper

This paper provides an outline of the development planning and development control systems which operate in Scotland, illustrating that while they share common principles and objectives with the equivalent systems in England and Wales there are a number of important differences both in law and more especially in practice to be appreciated. Future changes are outlined both in relation to the statutory planning system as well as in the broader fields of housing, economic development and the countryside.     

Steady-state analyses for reactive distillation control: An MTBE case study

An approach, based purely on steady-state analyses, for synthesizing effective control structures for reactive distillation (RD) columns is presented. The main idea is to analyze the steady-state relationships between the manipulated (input) variables and the potential controlled (output) variables to identify input–output (IO) pairings that are sensitive and avoid steady-state multiplicities providing a large range of nearly linear operating region around the base case design. Traditional SISO control loops are then implemented using these IO pairings to obtain control structures that maintain the column near the design product purity and conversion for the anticipated primary disturbances. The Niederlinski Index is used to eliminate dynamically unstable pairings in control structures with multiple loops. The approach is demonstrated on an example MTBE RD column. The impact of steady-state multiplicities on control structure design is highlighted.     

爆破毒气及其控制

爆破毒气是爆破五大公害之一,本文通过理论分析对其产生、传播机理进行了探讨,并提出了相关的控制技术。