泥石流突变模型

本文在崔鹏的泥石流实验工作的基础上，用柘扑变换的方法建立了一个泥石流突变模型；并分析了泥石流的突变条件和机制；从理论上指出了防治泥石流发生和减轻泥石流灾害的措施，这在设计防治泥石流工程上将具有指导意义。     

FLOOD ROUTING THROUGH A FLAT,COMPLEX FLOODPLAIN USING A ONE-DIMENSIONAL UNSTEADY FLOW COMPUTER PROGRAM1

ABSTRACT: The routing of flood waves through the Central Basin of the Passaic River in New Jersey is complex because of flat gradients and flow reversals. The one-dimensional unsteady flow program DWOPER, developed by the National Weather Service, was used to simulate flood wave movement through the Basin. A historical event was used for calibration and two synthetic events were simulated. Boundary conditions consisted of discharge hydrographs at inflow points to the study area, local flow hydrographs at interior points, and a stage discharge relation for flow over the crest of a diversion dam at the basin outlet. Manning's n values were adjusted based on stage and discharge data for the historical event; however, verification data were not available for events comparable in magnitude to the synthetic events. Aspects of the investigation reported include techniques for characterizing the flow system, model calibration, techniques for representing a tunnel diversion, and simulation results.     

Climatic and stream-flow controls on tree growth in a Western montane riparian forest

Humans have severely impacted riparian ecosystems through water diversions, impoundments, and consumptive uses. Effective management of these important areas is becoming an increasingly high priority of land managers, particularly as municipal, industrial, and recreational demands for water increase. We examined radial tree growth of four riparian tree species (Pinus jeffreyi, Populus trichocarpa, Betula occidentalis, and Pinus monophylla) along Bishop Creek, California, and developed models relating basal area increment (BAI) and relative basal area increment (RBAI) to climatic and stream flow variables. Between years 1995–1999, univariate regression analysis with stream flow explained 29 to 61% of the variation in BAI and RBAI among all species except P. trichocarpa; growth by P. trichocarpa was not significantly related to stream flows over this period. Stepwise linear regression indicated that species responded differently to climatic variables, and models based on these variables explained between 33 to 86% of variation in BAI and RBAI during the decade of the 1990s. We examined branch growth of P. trichocarpa for sensitivity to differences in stream flow regimes and found that annual branch growth did not vary between a high- and low-flow site, but that annual branch growth was significantly higher in wet years with greater stream flows. Our results support the establishment of site-specific management goals by land managers that take into account all of the important tree species present in riparian ecosystems and their differential responses to altered hydrologic condition. Instream flow requirements for maintaining tree growth and vigor are only one of the species-specific responses that need to be evaluated, and these assessments should attempt to separate experimentally stream-flow (managed) controls from climatic (unmanaged) controls on growth.     

COMPARISON OF PROCESS‐BASED AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK APPROACHES FOR STREAMFLOW MODELING IN AN AGRICULTURAL WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: The performance of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and artificial neural network (ANN) models in simulating hydrologic response was assessed in an agricultural watershed in southeastern Pennsylvania. All of the performance evaluation measures including Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (E) and coefficient of determination (R²) suggest that the ANN monthly predictions were closer to the observed flows than the monthly predictions from the SWAT model. More specifically, monthly streamflow E and R² were 0.54 and 0.57, respectively, for the SWAT model calibration period, and 0.71 and 0.75, respectively, for the ANN model training period. For the validation period, these values were ?0.17 and 0.34 for the SWAT and 0.43 and 0.45 for the ANN model. SWAT model performance was affected by snowmelt events during winter months and by the model's inability to adequately simulate base flows. Even though this and other studies using ANN models suggest that these models provide a viable alternative approach for hydrologic and water quality modeling, ANN models in their current form are not spatially distributed watershed modeling systems. However, considering the promising performance of the simple ANN model, this study suggests that the ANN approach warrants further development to explicitly address the spatial distribution of hydrologic/water quality processes within watersheds.     

ANALYTICAL REGRESSION STAGE ANALYSIS FOR DEVILS HOLE,DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK,NEVADA1

ABSTRACT: Devils Hole is a collapse depression connected to the regional carbonate aquifer of the Death Valley ground water flow system. Devils Hole pool is home to an endangered pupfish that was threatened when irrigation pumping in nearby Ash Meadows lowered the pool stage in the 1960s. Pumping at Ash Meadows ultimately ceased, and the stage recovered until 1988, when it began to decline, a trend that continued until at least 2004. Regional ground water pumping and changes in recharge are considered the principal potential stresses causing long term stage changes. A regression was found between pumpage and Devils Hole water levels. Though precipitation in distant mountain ranges is the source of recharge to the flow system, the stage of Devils Hole shows small change in stage from 1937 to 1963, a period during which ground water withdrawals were small and the major stress on stage would have been recharge. Multiple regression analyses, made by including the cumulative departure from normal precipitation with pumpage as independent variables, did not improve the regression. Drawdown at Devils Hole was calculated by the Theis Equation for nearby pumping centers to incorporate time delay and drawdown attenuation. The Theis drawdowns were used as surrogates for pumpage in multiple regression analyses. The model coefficient for the regression, R²= 0.982, indicated that changes in Devils Hole were largely due to effects of pumping at Ash Meadows, Amargosa Desert, and Army 1.     

CHARACTERIZATION OF HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS TO SUPPORT PLATTE RIVER SPECIES RECOVERY EFFORTS1

ABSTRACT: Efforts are under way to recover habitat for several threatened and endangered species in and along the Platte River in central Nebraska. A proposed recovery program for these species requires a means of characterizing “wet” versus “normal” versus “dry” hydrologic conditions in order to set corresponding Platte River instream flow targets. Methods of characterizing hydrologic conditions in real time were investigated for this purpose. Initially, 10 watershed variables were identified as potentially valuable indicators of hydrologic conditions. Ultimately, six multiple linear regression equations were developed for six periods of the year using a subset of these variables expressed as frequencies of nonexceedence. The adequacy of these equations for characterizing conditions was assessed by evaluating their historic correlation to subsequent flow in the central Platte River (1947–1994). These equations explained 54 to 82 percent of variability in the observed flow exceedences in the validation datasets, depending upon the period of year evaluated. These equations will provide initial criteria for setting applicable flow targets to determine, in real time, whether water regulation projects associated with the species recovery effort can divert or store flows without conflicting with recovery objectives.     

DEBRIS FLOW IN WEST DEVELOPMENT

ＴｈｅｗｅｓｔｅｒｎｒｅｇｉｏｎｓｏｆＣｈｉｎａ (ｏｒＷｅｓｔＣｈｉｎａ)ｉｎｃｌｕｄｅ 1 2 ｐｒｏｖｉｎｃｅｓ/ａｕｔｏｎｏｍｏｕｓｒｅ ｇｉｏｎｓ/ｍｕｎｉｃｉｐａｌｉｔｉｅｓ:Ｑｉｎｇｈａｉ,Ｇａｎｓｕ ,Ｓｈａａｎｘｉ,Ｓｉｃｈｕａｎ ,Ｙｕｎｎａｎ ,Ｇｕｉｚｈｏｕ ,Ｘｉｎｊｉａｎｇ ,Ｔｉ ｂｅｔ ,Ｎｉｎｇｘｉａ ,Ｇｕａｎｇｘｉ,ＩｎｎｅｒＭｏｎｇｏｌｉａａｎｄＣｈｏｎｇｑｉｎｇ .ＳｉｎｃｅｔｈｅＰｌｅｉｓｔｏｃｅｎｅｏｆｔｈｅＱｕａｔｅｒ ｎａｒｙＰｅｒｉｏｄ ,ｔｈｅｍｏｕｎｔａｉｎｓｉｎｔｈｅｗｅ…     

Development of Stream Water Chemistry during Spring Melt in a Northern Hardwood Forest

The role of snowmelt and subsurface hydrology in determiningthe chemistry of a small headwater stream in the TurkeyLakes Watershed (TLW) was evaluated for the spring meltperiods 1992 to 1996. Spring runoff is the dominanthydrological event at the TLW each year. Processesoccurring within the snowpack during snowmelt wereprincipally responsible for the above-ground changes inchemical fluxes relative to bulk deposition (the effect ofwinter throughfall was minimal). Large changes in chemicalfluxes occurred below ground. Organic matter decomposition,weathering, nitrification, and element cycling are some ofthe more important below-ground processes that operateduring the snow accumulation and ablation season and controlthe composition of the water ultimately appearing in thestream. Maximum stream discharge was accompanied byelevated concentrations of H⁺, NO₃ ^-, K⁺,NH₄ ⁺, DOC, Al and Mn, but reduced levels ofCa²⁺, Mg²⁺, SO₄ ^2- and SiO₂. Theconcentration-discharge relationships were consistent withwater movement through and above the forest floor duringpeak discharge, a flowpath facilitated by rapid infiltrationof meltwater and the existence of a relatively impermeablelayer in the mineral soil creating a perched water table. Averaged over the five periods of snow accumulation andablation, it was estimated that pre-melt stream flow, andwater routed through the forest floor and through the uppermineral soil contributed 9, 28 and 63%, respectively, ofthe discharge measured at the outlet of the catchment. Theforest floor contribution would be greater at peak dischargeand at higher elevations. An end-member mixing modelestimated concentrations of SO₄ ^2-, NO₃ ^-,Cl^-, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, Na⁺ and Al that werecomparable to average values measured in the stream. Othervariables (NH₄ ⁺, H⁺, K⁺ and DOC) wereover-estimated implying retention mechanisms operatingoutside the model assumptions.     

暴雨泥石流暴发的准周期性探讨

泥石流是山区的主要灾害类型，其发生条件和暴发规律尚在探索之中，泥石流过程本质上并不是纯随机事件，地形坡度，暴雨强度和风化岩土物质积累的组合决定了泥石流的规模，人们推测其暴发具有周期性，但并没有得到直接的证据。作者从山坡松散物质积累条件和泥石流暴发的概率分布出发，在考虑其发生规模的前提下，论证了泥石流暴发风险具有周期性，并且给出了其风险度及暴大风险重现期的估算公式，理论研究和调查结果表明，泥石流间隔期越长，其发长的规模将越大，这在制定山区防灾对策中应该特别注意。     

气相色谱仪检测溶解气H_2、He最佳观测条件的选择

通过色谱柱、固定相以及载气流速的选择性实验 ,提高了气相色谱仪在观测地下水中H2 、He分离效能和检测效能。本文对此作介绍 ,以期对使用气相色谱仪进行地下水H2 、He观测的台站能有所启发和借鉴