公众灾害风险可接受性与避灾意愿的初探——以川渝地区旱灾风险为例

在综述前人研究的基础上,以川渝地区旱灾为例,通过实地调查与访谈,从公众可接受的旱灾损失与频率、假定旱灾风险情景下的避险意愿等角度,对公众旱灾风险可接受性进行了初步探讨。结果表明,公众合理可接受的旱灾损失与频率分别在26.5%~52.8%与32.0%~64.3%区间范围内;并以一般旱灾、严重旱灾风险情景为限制线,确定了公众合理可接受风险区域;随着灾害损失风险增加,公众规避风险投资意愿呈现出中间高两头低的趋势,当灾害损失达到约50%~70%时,公众避险投资意愿达到最高,意愿避险投资占可能损失的比重约为62%。鉴于川渝地区的旱灾形势,今后旱灾风险管理的关键,一是加强对旱灾的监测与预警预报;二是完善旱灾风险的常规化管理,发展高效灌溉农业,充分利用客水资源,完善提高现有农田水网建设;三是积极探索公众-企业-政府多方共同参与的高效风险管理模式。     

贯通巷道风流流场数值模拟若干关键问题研究

根据计算流体力学基本理论,利用计算流体动力学(CFD)软件Fluent,运用三维k-ε湍流模型对贯通型巷道风流流场数值模拟中风流入口、出口位置对巷道风流流场分布的影响、湍动能k及湍动能耗散率ε的取值对模拟结果的影响等进行考察。通过研究确定模拟巷道的流体力学入口长度,确定模拟巷道出口位置;湍动能k及湍动能耗散率ε的取值对入口附近流动还没有充分发展区域拟解算的结果影响较大,而对流动充分发展的区域影响较小。将数值模拟风速值与理论计算风速值进行对比,模拟结果与计算结果非常一致,验证了数值模拟方法的正确性,为研究贯通型巷道风流传质过程、瓦斯运移规律及通风排污效率等提供了理论基础。     

CO2 emission driving forces and corresponding mitigation strategies under low-carbon economy mode: evidence from China’s Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region

On account of the background of China’s “new normal” characterized by slower economic growth, this paper analyses the low-carbon economy status quo in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region and empirically investigates the relationship between carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and its various factors for China’s Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region using panel data econometric technique. We find evidence of existence of Environmental Kuznets Curve. Results also show that economic scale, industrial structure, and urbanization rate are crucial factors to promote CO₂ emissions. However, technological progress, especially the domestic independent research and development, plays a key role in CO₂ emissions abatement. Next, we further analyze the correlation between each subregion and various factors according to Grey Relation Analysis. Thereby, our findings provide important implications for policymakers in air pollution control and CO₂ emissions reduction for this region.     

Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region: A Cross-Country Analysis of Institutional Stakeholder Perceptions

Before climate change is considered in long-term coastal management, it is necessary to investigate how institutional stakeholders in coastal management conceptualize climate change, as their awareness will ultimately affect their actions. Using questionnaires in eight Baltic Sea riparian countries, this study examines environmental managers' awareness of climate change. Our results indicate that problems related to global warming are deemed secondary to short-term social and economic issues. Respondents agree that problems caused by global warming will become increasingly important, but pay little attention to adaptation and mitigation strategies. Current environmental problems are expected to continue to be urgent in the future. We conclude that an apparent gap exists between decision making, public concerns, and scientific consensus, resulting in a situation in which the latest evidence rarely influences commonly held opinions.     

Changing effluent chemistry affect survival,growth and physiological function of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Acacia nilotica</Emphasis> seedlings in northwestern region of India

Recycling and conservation efforts for water are the need of the day because of the lack of new water sources and the ever-increasing demand for drinking water. Seedlings of Acacia nilotica L. were irrigated with: canal water (T₁, control); municipal effluent (T₂); textile effluent (T₃); steel effluent (T₄); textile + municipal effluent in 1:1 ratio (T₅); steel + municipal effluent in 1:2 ratio (T₆); steel + textile in 1:2 ratio (T₈) and steel + municipal + textile in 1:2:2 ratio (T₇) with views to observe effluents effect on the seedlings and its adaptability and to recommend safe disposal of these effluents. Seedlings in T₆, T₇ and T₈ showed 50% lesser height and collar diameter than those in control. Seedlings in T₂ attained greatest height, collar diameter, numbers of branches and produced 140 g dry biomass seedling⁻¹. Highest concentration of manganese (Mn), iron (Fe), copper (Cu) and zinc (Zn) and lowest concentration of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), potassium (K), calcium (Ca) and magnesium (Mg) in the seedlings of T₄, T₆, T₇ and T₈ resulted in nutritional imbalance, mineral toxicity and reduction in photosynthetic (Pn) and transpiration (E) rates and caused seedling mortality. Seedlings of T₃ had highest sodium concentration and low concentration of Ca, Mg and micronutrients resulting in nutritional imbalance, augmented chlorosis and reduced gas exchange and biomass by half as compared to control. Increased growth, Pn and E and biomass in seedlings of T₅ over T₃ and survival period in T₆, T₇ and T₈ seedlings suggested a beneficial effect of effluents mixing. Unscientific disposal should be avoided and toxic concentration of metal ions␣may be reduced for long-term application and harmless disposal of effluents in afforestation and urban development.     

山东省在全国的区际地位及区域内部分工格局研究

区域分工对区域经济发展具有重要作用。山东地处我国东部沿海,是全国人口大省、经济大省,在全国经济发展格局中占有举足轻重的地位。根据区域分工理论,对山东省在全国和区域内部分工进行了分析,揭示了山东省在全国的区际地位以及所辖17个市之间的区域分工与合作格局,为山东省强化区域分工和联系,提高区域竞争力提供决策依据。     

旅游循环经济理念下的珠江源旅游区建设初探

旅游循环经济是发展旅游业一种新的指导思想,是实现旅游业可持续发展的新范式。针对珠江源旅游区的现状,根据旅游循环经济资源循环利用和保护并重的理念,探讨其在旅游区的林地系统利用建设、湿地系统利用建设、岩溶地貌系统利用建设、旅游服务设施系统利用建设方面的应用。     

安徽四大区域对外开放度与经济增长的分析

对外开放度是测量一个地区经济发展国际化程度的一个重要标志。以SPSS12．0为分析工具,运用回归分析方法,对安徽省四大区域对外开放度差异进行了测定和分析。2000年以来,安徽省四大经济区域对外开放度有了明显提高,但基础设施、区位条件、产业结构等方面的差异导致四大区域之间、区域内部以及地市之间的对外开放度存在明显差异。回归分析显示,对外开放度与安徽区域经济增长有着显著的相关性。     

Climate dynamics and extreme precipitation and flood events in Central Europe

Past changes and possible future variations in the nature of extreme precipitation and flood events in Central Europe and the Alpine region are examined from a physical standpoint. An overview is given of the following key contributory physical processes: (1) the variability of the large-scale atmospheric flow and the associated changes of the North-Atlantic storm track; (2) the feedback process between climate warming and the water cycle, and in particular the potential for more frequent heavy precipitation events; and (3) the catchment-scale hydrological processes associated with variations in major river flooding events and that are related to land-use changes, river training measures, and shifts in the proportion of rain to snowfall. In this context an account is provided of the possible future forecasting and warning methodologies based upon high-resolution weather prediction and runoff models. Also consideration is given to the detectability of past (future) changes in observed (modeled) extreme events. It is shown that their rarity and natural fluctuation largely impedes a detection of systematic variations. These effects restrict trend analysis of such events to return periods of below a few months. An illustration using daily precipitation from the Swiss Alps does yield evidence for pronounced trends of intense precipitation events (return period 30 days), while trends of stronger event classes are not detectable (but nevertheless can not be excluded). The small detection probability for extreme events limits possible mitigation of future damage costs through an abatement of climate change alone, and points to the desirability of developing improved early forecasting/warning systems as an additional no-regret strategy. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

提高乌鲁木齐市水磨沟区植被覆盖率的设想

通过对乌鲁木齐市水磨沟区植被的现状调查和对存在问题的分析,结合生态示范区建设指标体系,提出提高该区植被覆盖率及改善生态环境的设想。