现有环境质量评价方法可能存在的虚假性

在现行的环境质量评价方法中，由于同一区域内的各评价因子采用不同的评价方法或利用不同的数学模型进行评价，导致评价结论有差异甚至有显著差异，亦即评价结论可能存在虚假性。     

Building consensus on divisive issues: a case study of the Yukon wolf management team

This article presents a case study of a successful effort to reach agreement on one of the most intractable environmental issues of our time: wolf management. This case is unusual in several ways. In this case, the members of the negotiating team were ordinary citizens rather than leaders of organized groups. This team was given an unusually high level of authority to write the plan as they saw fit; the agency pledged to implement “whatever they came up with.” The agency convened the process, but agency personnel were not members of the team and attended only when they were invited. The team members were able to reach agreement on this tough issue even though polar opposites were at the table—one who felt that wolves are a “spiritual essence” and another who felt that, as he put it, “wolves, coyotes, and cockroaches have a lot in common”. They produced a detailed plan that addressed all the issues in just 5 months. Another unusual aspect of this effort is that the final agreement does not list the team members. They explained that they wanted their plan to “stand alone” and be judged based on what it said, not on who was involved.However, just after their agreement was completed, a new, pro-wolf control government was elected that refused to endorse the plan. While the government gave various reasons for not ratifying the plan, more and more diverse interest groups came out in support for both the plan and the process that created it. Eventually, overwhelming public support forced the government to sign and implement the plan as written. This demonstrates that, while it is important for a team to seek the sanction of decision-makers, it is perhaps even more important for the general public to see the effort and the final agreement as fair. Strong support from a broad spectrum of the public can help win the necessary political support.In addition to discussing the unorthodox aspects of this consensus-building effort, this article also attempts to give the reader a front row seat to this process by using the informants' own words—words rich in detail, brimming with color and spoken straight from the heart. Certainly their experience dispels any notion that such efforts are simply a matter of following a recipe. During the process, members of the negotiating team experienced the entire gamut of emotions—anger, defeat, humor and, finally, a genuine sense of pride. As team member Patty Denison put it, “We showed that a random group of people could work together and do something truly monumental.”     

基于TOPAZ的无人机冲突解脱安全评估技术

针对当前无人机空域运行安全评估体系缺乏的现状,利用TOPAZ构建了一种用于无人机飞行冲突解脱技术的安全评估体系。构造了无人机的空域运行环境,加入单机45°交叉相遇、90°交叉相遇和双机同时交叉相遇的冲突场景。选取一种典型的无人机冲突解脱算法作为安全评估对象,依据TOPAZ的评估流程展开了系统的评估,得出冲突解脱算法的安全水平。对冲突解脱算法提出了改进方案,加入了动态的启发式因子,有效提高了冲突解脱技术的安全性能。通过基于TOPAZ的迭代评估过程进一步找出了无人机冲突解脱算法的安全瓶颈所在,证实了当前各类冲突解脱技术还无法满足有人机与无人机共域飞行的安全需要。     

STORMFLOW SIMULATION USING A GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SYSTEM WITH A DISTRIBUTED APPROACH1

ABSTRACT: With the increasing availability of digital and remotely sensed data such as land use, soil texture, and digital elevation models (DEMs), geographic information systems (GIS) have become an indispensable tool in preprocessing data sets for watershed hydrologic modeling and post processing simulation results. However, model inputs and outputs must be transferred between the model and the GIS. These transfers can be greatly simplified by incorporating the model itself into the GIS environment. To this end, a simple hydrologic model, which incorporates the curve number method of rainfall‐runoff partitioning, the ground‐water base‐flow routine, and the Muskingum flow routing procedure, was implemented on the GIS. The model interfaces directly with stream network, flow direction, and watershed boundary data generated using standard GIS terrain analysis tools; and while the model is running, various data layers may be viewed at each time step using the full display capabilities. The terrain analysis tools were first used to delineate the drainage basins and stream networks for the Susquehanna River. Then the model was used to simulate the hydrologic response of the Upper West Branch of the Susquehanna to two different storms. The simulated streamflow hydrographs compare well with the observed hydrographs at the basin outlet.     

Public perception of locally unwanted facilities in Hong Kong: implications for conflict resolution

This paper aims to investigate factors affecting public attitude towards the siting of locally unwanted land uses (LULUs) and to explore the possible strategies to resolve such conflicts. Three questionnaire surveys were undertaken in communities with different siting experiences and socio-economic profiles. Over 750 individuals were successfully interviewed in each study district. The three communities were found to share similar risk beliefs but show variations in the level of awareness of and response to LULUs. In communities with a disproportionate share of LULUs, many residents did not trust the government in handling LULU issues and thought that the siting process was unfair. The results of the binary logistic regression analysis show that people are likely to oppose the siting of a LULU in their community if they have a negative siting experience, do not perceive the need, accord a high risk to the facility and have a low level of trust in government. The resolution strategies preferred by the public are greater public participation and effective mitigation of risks and impacts, rather than provision of compensation and incentives. All these call for policy-makers to be sensitive to local concerns, engage the public in the process, communicate risks effectively and foster trust building.     

Sustainable development as a policy guide: an application to affordable housing in island communities

This article uses sustainability as a lens through which to examine affordable housing policies in geographically-isolated island communities, with the intent of assessing the utility of using sustainable development as a guide to policy decision-making. Focusing on the case of Key West, Florida, the article points to the conflicts that must be reconciled to achieve true sustainability. The study applies criteria to identify policy solutions for the provision and retention of affordable housing in island communities, and at the same time provides an application of the sustainable development concept as a policy guide. Readers should send their comments on this paper to BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

黄土高原历史时期沟谷侵蚀量计算方法探讨

历史时期沟谷侵蚀量的计算多采用传统实地测量或计算方法,而现代地理信息技术的发展为沟谷侵蚀量计算提供了更为简便、快捷、高效的方式。等高线图形概括法即为一种将传统制图学与现代地理信息技术相结合的方法。本文以神木县东山旧城冲沟为切入点,采用等高线图形概括方法,基于30 m 分辨率ASTER DEM,利用Arcgis10 平台计算历史时期沟谷侵蚀量,并将其与基于野外测量计算侵蚀量进行对比。结果对比发现,基于野外测量的沟谷侵蚀量约占基于DEM 侵蚀量的89.11%,两者之间存在一定差距,但是可被接受的。进一步分析显示,等高线简化前后,DEM 平均坡度、等高线长度和表面积均发生变化,平均坡度、等高线长度变化率分别为2.78% 和4.3%,表面积变化不是特别明显。三维分析显示,简化后等高线更加平滑,平均坡度趋于平缓,坡度的分布更为均匀。总体而言,等高线图形概括方法在沟谷侵蚀量计算方面具有较高的可靠性,对更大时空尺度内的沟谷侵蚀量计算具有借鉴意义。     

茂兰自然保护区景观格局空间变化研究

为促进保护区生态环境和地区社会经济的可持续发展,应用2005、2010年茂兰地区高分辨率影像和1∶5万地形图,基于Arc GIS、FRAGSTATS软件平台,采用移动窗口法、DEM,对茂兰自然保护区景观格局的空间结构及其演化进行研究。结果表明:1)保护区景观格局呈明显的5个团状高值区,中心区域异质性显著;2)从实验区到核心区,SHDI下降65%,ED降幅46.73%,LSI下降49.71%,PD下降40.21%,同时CONTAG上升43.95%,LPI上升达107.01%,景观由实验区团状、均衡、破碎化,向南部农用地随道路的延伸而镶嵌分布的格局转化,其中缓冲区整体空间密度高,异质性强;3)研究区人工景观集中分布在坡度0°~5°之间,自然景观以35°~45°向两侧递减,5°~25°间面积最小,实验区格局演化呈良性,要防止居民点向陡坡地区蔓延;缓冲区与核心区格局演化呈不合理,缓冲区不但要防止居民点向陡坡地区蔓延,还应合理规划道路、还林还草,提高农用地利用效率;核心区毁林开荒现象较为严重,且农用地利用率低;4)造成格局差异的因素主要包括保护区发展的政策导向、特殊的地理形态以及不合理的土地利用。     

利用多信息源提高半干旱地区TM影像的森林类型制图精度:以北京西部山区为例

以地处半干旱地区的北京西部山区为例,利用研究区森林类型的季相特征、已有的少部分林相图、Google Earth免费影像数据等信息选择不同坡向的相同森林类型做训练样本,通过加入其他辅助数据(海拔和坡向数据),来提高Landsat TM影像的森林类型分类精度,同时对比了基于像元和面向对象方法提取森林类型的效果。结果表明:1)就半干旱山区的森林类型划分来说,TM影像的TM4、TM5、TM4-TM2及辅助数据DEM和坡向可作为TM影像森林类型划分的最佳数据源。2)单独加入海拔信息,阔叶林的提取精度提高23%,针叶林和混交林的分类精度只提高了4%~5%;单独加入坡向信息,阔叶林的提取精度只提高21%,但是针叶林和混交林的分类精度则分别提高了13%、18%,显著优于单独加入海拔信息的效果。同时加入海拔信息和坡向信息,至少可以准确区分出约70%以上的针叶林、阔叶林和混交林。3)就本研究区而言,坡向比海拔更有效地辅助提高森林分类精度。4)就混淆矩阵数据而言,面向对象的分类方法比基于像元分类结果总体精度低3%,Kappa系数低4%,但面向对象的分类结果更加符合研究区实际情况。该研究对中分辨率影像应用于半干旱山区森林类型划分具有一定的借鉴意义。