Predicting tree distributions in an East African biodiversity hotspot: model selection, data bias and envelope uncertainty

The Eastern Arc Mountains (EAMs) of Tanzania and Kenya support some of the most ancient tropical rainforest on Earth. The forests are a global priority for biodiversity conservation and provide vital resources to the Tanzanian population. Here, we make a first attempt to predict the spatial distribution of 40 EAM tree species, using generalised additive models, plot data and environmental predictor maps at sub 1 km resolution. The results of three modelling experiments are presented, investigating predictions obtained by (1) two different procedures for the stepwise selection of predictors, (2) down-weighting absence data, and (3) incorporating an autocovariate term to describe fine-scale spatial aggregation. In response to recent concerns regarding the extrapolation of model predictions beyond the restricted environmental range of training data, we also demonstrate a novel graphical tool for quantifying envelope uncertainty in restricted range niche-based models (envelope uncertainty maps). We find that even for species with very few documented occurrences useful estimates of distribution can be achieved. Initiating selection with a null model is found to be useful for explanatory purposes, while beginning with a full predictor set can over-fit the data. We show that a simple multimodel average of these two best-model predictions yields a superior compromise between generality and precision (parsimony). Down-weighting absences shifts the balance of errors in favour of higher sensitivity, reducing the number of serious mistakes (i.e., falsely predicted absences); however, response functions are more complex, exacerbating uncertainty in larger models. Spatial autocovariates help describe fine-scale patterns of occurrence and significantly improve explained deviance, though if important environmental constraints are omitted then model stability and explanatory power can be compromised. We conclude that the best modelling practice is contingent both on the intentions of the analyst (explanation or prediction) and on the quality of distribution data; generalised additive models have potential to provide valuable information for conservation in the EAMs, but methods must be carefully considered, particularly if occurrence data are scarce. Full results and details of all species models are supplied in an online Appendix.     

Response of a Group of Sichuan Snub-Nosed Monkeys to Commercial Logging in the Qinling Mountains, China

Abstract:  Habitat destruction is one of the greatest threats to primates worldwide. To understand the impact of forest logging on the habitat use of primates in temperate mixed forest, we compared the range, habitat used, population size, and diet of a troop (ERT) of Sichuan snub-nosed monkeys ( Rhinopithecus roxellana ) in the Qinling Mountains before (1989), during (1997), and after (2002–2003) commercial logging. Logging significantly changed the composition of the forest and the food supply for the troop. Some areas were heavily logged and formed patches in the forest that lacked canopy cover. The troop moved 7 km away from their original range when logging took place and returned to their original range after logging stopped, but they avoided heavily logged areas that lacked canopy cover. Their movement indicated some degree of site fidelity in this species. Diet and home range changed after logging, but the population size remained stable, which suggests that this species has some ability to adapt to habitat changes. Our results may reflect a natural flexibility in primates to adapt to the changing food resources in temperate areas with marked seasonal variations in food availability and distribution. This flexibility may have contributed to their higher degree of resilience to habitat alterations caused by human activities compared with tropical forest primates that have a more specialized diet. Our findings provide important baseline information that will help decision makers in their efforts to conserve primates, especially in temperate regions, and to sustainably manage primate habitat.     

秦岭南部地区农业气候资源的变化及其对油菜的影响

秦岭南部地区地形及气候条件复杂,作为油菜主要种植区之一,研究其农业气候资源的变化特征及其对油菜的影响,可以为该区有效利用农业气候资源、合理安排农事活动提高油菜生产提供实践参考。以1960~2014年秦岭南部33个站点的逐日气象数据和近25a各省市统计年鉴资料,通过滑动平均、线性倾向估计、灰色关联分析等方法,研究秦岭南部农业气候资源的时空变化特征及对油菜产量的影响。结果表明:(1)近55a来,秦岭南部地区油菜生长季内平均气温和≥5℃积温呈上升趋势,平均速率分别为0.2、29.3℃/10 a,冻害指数、降水量、开花期降水量和相对湿度与日照时数都呈减少趋势,平均每10 a分别减少0.3、14.8 mm、1.4 mm、0.6%、32.2 h。(2)近55a来研究区油菜生长季内平均气温与≥5℃积温的多年平均空间分布都表现为由西南向东北方向递减,冻害指数的空间变化与二者相反,表明越冬期极端最低气温值在空间上由西南向东北逐渐减小;其水资源指标多年平均空间分布由南向北递减,日照时数则由西南向东北递增。(3)1960~2014年秦岭南部油菜生长季内平均气温与≥5℃积温在空间上均呈极显著的增加趋势,研究区西部变化幅度较小,东部变化幅度较大,冻害指数的空间变化趋势与二者相同;水资源与日照时数在空间上均呈极显著的减少趋势,只有少数站点表现为极显著的增加趋势,而日照时数在研究区东部变化幅度相对较大,其余区域变化幅度相对较小。总体上,平均气温和≥5℃积温高值区的变化幅度小,低值区变化幅度大,其他指标与之相反。(4)近25a来秦岭南部油菜气候产量呈不明显的上升趋势,平均速率为3.79 kg/(a·hm~2),其空间变化幅度差异大,且大部分站点的变化趋势均不显著;由关联度得作用于各区域油菜气候产量的主要影响因子存在差异。各农业气候资源指标的变化幅度越大,对油菜单产的可能影响相对较大。     

Assessing the Potential Impacts to Riparian Ecosystems Resulting from Hemlock Mortality in Great Smoky Mountains National Park

Hemlock Woolly Adelgid (Adelges tsugae) is spreading across forests in eastern North America, causing mortality of eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis [L.] Carr.) and Carolina hemlock (Tsuga caroliniana Engelm.). The loss of hemlock from riparian forests in Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP) may result in significant physical, chemical, and biological alterations to stream environments. To assess the influence of riparian hemlock stands on stream conditions and estimate possible impacts from hemlock loss in GSMNP, we paired hardwood- and hemlock-dominated streams to examine differences in water temperature, nitrate concentrations, pH, discharge, and available photosynthetic light. We used a Geographic Information System (GIS) to identify stream pairs that were similar in topography, geology, land use, and disturbance history in order to isolate forest type as a variable. Differences between hemlock- and hardwood-dominated streams could not be explained by dominant forest type alone as forest type yields no consistent signal on measured conditions of headwater streams in GSMNP. The variability in the results indicate that other landscape variables, such as the influence of understory Rhododendron species, may exert more control on stream conditions than canopy composition. The results of this study suggest that the replacement of hemlock overstory with hardwood species will have minimal impact on long-term stream conditions, however disturbance during the transition is likely to have significant impacts. Management of riparian forests undergoing hemlock decline should, therefore, focus on facilitating a faster transition to hardwood-dominated stands to minimize long-term effects on water quality.     

乌蒙山山脉药用植物资源调查研究

通过野外考察、标本采集、资料查阅整理及标本鉴定,对乌蒙山山脉药用植物资源进行了调查。结果表明,乌蒙山山脉共有药用植物272科1189属3184种（含变种和亚种）,其中地衣植物8科9属13种、苔藓植物40科74属116种、蕨类植物45科108属358种、裸子植物10科22属37种、被子植物169科976属2660种。对其物种组成、生态类型、分布、优势科属、药用部位、功效等进行了统计分析,对常用中药、国家重点保护野生药材、民间习用药物进行了简要介绍,并对其开发利用提出了建议。     

Is tourism damaging ecosystems in the Andes? Current knowledge and an agenda for future research

Despite the popularity of tourism and recreation in the Andes in South America and the regions conservation value, there is limited research on the ecological impacts of these types of anthropogenic use. Using a systematic quantitative literature review method, we found 47 recreation ecology studies from the Andes, 25 of which used an experimental design. Most of these were from the Southern Andes in Argentina (13 studies) or Chile (eight studies) with only four studies from the Northern Andes. These studies documented a range of impacts on vegetation, birds and mammals; including changes in plant species richness, composition and vegetation cover and the tolerance of wildlife of visitor use. There was little research on the impacts of visitors on soils and aquatic systems and for some ecoregions in the Andes. We identify research priorities across the region that will enhance management strategies to minimise visitor impacts in Andean ecosystems.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-014-0550-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

大别山区诸佛庵镇深水河山洪灾害分析

综合下垫面条件、气象与水文信息,对皖西大别山区的诸佛庵镇“05．9”小流域暴雨,进行暴雨重现期和洪水过程分析计算。结合灾害特征,探讨其成因。在小流域风险洪水预估的基础上,从防灾减灾的角度提出对策性建议。     

The effect of nitrogen additions on oak foliage and herbivore communities at sites with high and low atmospheric pollution

To evaluate plant and herbivore responses to nitrogen we conducted a fertilization study at a low and high pollution site in the mixed conifer forests surrounding Los Angeles, California. Contrary to expectations, discriminant function analysis of oak herbivore communities showed significant response to N fertilization when atmospheric deposition was high, but not when atmospheric deposition was low. We hypothesize that longer-term fertilization treatments are needed at the low pollution site before foliar N nutrition increases sufficiently to affect herbivore communities. At the high pollution site, fertilization was also associated with increased catkin production and higher densities of a byturid beetle that feeds on the catkins of oak. Leaf nitrogen and nitrate were significantly higher at the high pollution site compared to the low pollution site. Foliar nitrate concentrations were positively correlated with abundance of sucking insects, leafrollers and plutellids in all three years of the study.     

Sustainability Assessment of Future Scenarios: Methodology and Application to Mountain Areas of Europe

BioScene (scenarios for reconciling biodiversity conservation with declining agriculture use in mountain areas in Europe) was a three-year project (2002–2005) funded by the European Union’s Fifth Framework Programme, and aimed to investigate the implications of agricultural restructuring and decline for biodiversity conservation in the mountain areas of Europe. The research took a case study approach to the analysis of the biodiversity processes and outcomes of different scenarios of agri-environmental change in six countries (France, Greece, Norway, Slovakia, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom) covering the major biogeographical regions of Europe. The project was coordinated by Imperial College London, and each study area had a multidisciplinary team including ecologists and social and economic experts, which sought a comprehensive understanding of the drivers for change and their implications for sustainability. A key component was the sustainability assessment (SA) of the alternative scenarios. This article discusses the development and application of the SA methodology developed for BioScene. While the methodology was objectives-led, it was also strongly grounded in baseline ecological and socio-economic data. This article also describes the engagement of stakeholder panels in each study area and the use of causal chain analysis for understanding the likely implications for land use and biodiversity of strategic drivers of change under alternative scenarios for agriculture and rural policy and for biodiversity management. Finally, this article draws conclusions for the application of SA more widely, its use with scenarios, and the benefits of stakeholder engagement in the SA process.     

Effect of temperature and moisture on soil organic carbon mineralization of predominantly permafrost peatland in the Great Hing’an Mountains, Northeastern China

Boreal peatlands represent a large global carbon pool.The relationships between carbon mineralization,soil temperature and moisture in the permafrost peatlands of the Great Hing'an Mountains,China,were examined.The CO2 emissions were measured during laboratory incubations of samples from four sites under different temperatures(5,10,15,and 20°C) and moisture contents(0%,30%,60%,100% water holding capacity(WHC) and completely water saturated).Total carbon mineralization ranged from 15.51 to 112.92 mg C under the treatments for all sites.Carbon mineralization rates decreased with soil depth,increased with temperature,and reached the highest at 60% WHC at the same temperature.The calculated temperature coefficient(Q10) values ranged from 1.84 to 2.51 with the soil depths and moisture.However,the values were not significantly affected by soil moisture and depth for all sites due to the different peat properties(P 0.05).We found that the carbon mineralization could be successfully predicted as a two-compartment function with temperature and moisture(R2 0.96) and total carbon mineralization was significantly affected by temperature and moisture(P 0.05).Thus,temperature and moisture would play important roles in carbon mineralization of permafrost peatlands in the Great Hing'an Mountains,indicating that the permafrost peatlands would be sensitive to the environment change,and the permafrost peatlands would be potentially mineralized under future climate change.