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131.
青藏铁路列车运行控制系统的安全性分析 总被引:4,自引:4,他引:0
分析了青藏铁路中多种不利因素对轨道电路参数的影响 ;提出了在青藏铁路不宜采用现行基于轨道电路的列车运行控制系统 ,而应选择基于通信的列车运行控制系统的理由 ;给出了系统的基本结构及提高系统可靠性的措施 ;与此同时 ,就人们关心的无线传输列车控制数据的可靠性和安全性难题 ,通过建立马尔可夫模型的方法进行了分析 相似文献
132.
Lake Erie water quality has improved dramatically since the degraded conditions of the 1960s. Additional gains could be made,
but at the expense of further investment and reductions in fishery productivity. In facing such cross-jurisdictional issues,
natural resource managers in Canada and the United States must grapple with conflicting objectives and important uncertainties,
while considering the priorities of the public that live in the basin. The techniques and tools of decision analysis have
been used successfully to deal with such decision problems in a range of environmental settings, but infrequently in the Great
Lakes. The objective of this paper is to illustrate how such techniques might be brought to bear on an important, real decision
currently facing Lake Erie resource managers and stakeholders: the choice of new phosphorus loading targets for the lake.
The heart of our approach is a systematic elicitation of stakeholder preferences and an investigation of the degree to which
different phosphorus-loading policies might satisfy ecosystem objectives. Results show that there are potential benefits to
changing the historical policy of reducing phosphorus loads in Lake Erie. 相似文献
133.
134.
分析了成都市突发公共卫生事件应急指挥信息系统的需求,阐述了如何基于数字城市空间信息基础设施,利用网络地理信息系统技术(WebGIS)来整合数字城市信息化资源以及公共卫生专题资源,建设城市突发公共卫生事件应急指挥系统的总体设计和技术实现。 相似文献
135.
事故致因理论的比较分析 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
本文对事故致因理论进行了总结并对其优缺点进行了介绍,对一些主要的事故致因理论进行了比较,分析了其异同,提出了各自的特点和适用条件,并对其理论发展前景进行了展望。运用事故致因理论对具体事故案例进行了分析,找出了事故原因,提出了预防措施。 相似文献
136.
137.
Noel D. Uri 《Environmental management》1980,4(5):375-380
A myriad of factors, both economic and political, influenced the voting by members of the United States Congress on the 1978 National Energy Act. Determinant factors considered in our analysis included the percentage of residents in the Congressman's district residing in the central city or on farms; the percentage of residents who belong to labor unions; the average level of education of the residents; oil, coal, and natural gas production in the state relative to total domestic production. The results, determined by means of logit analysis, indicate that the impact on low-income energy consumers, the effect on overall employment, the impact on farmers, and the benefits to energy interests, as well as ideology and the subjective perception that the need exists to do something about the energy situation in the United States, were all important explanatory factors.The author is an economist with the United States Department of Energy. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the policies of the Department of Energy or the views of other Department of Energy staff members. 相似文献
138.
Implicit in every government decision on energy technology is a trade-off of a certain amount of risk in return for societal benefits. As a result of growing public concern over such risks, environmental analysts are increasingly being requested not only to describe potential adverse consequences but also to quantify their probability. However, this task is frustrated not only by inadequate experience with, and incomplete knowledge of, the causality of environmental impacts, but also by a disparity between individual and societal views of risk. While the societal view is based on objective risk functions andnet societal benefit, individuals tend to rely on subjective judgment, and consider the distribution as well as the amount of benefit. Thus, environmental risk assessments, produced by analysts on behalf of society as a whole, are likely to be quite speculative, and are unlikely to be reliable indicators of the acceptability of risk to the public. 相似文献
139.
Jeffrey H. Smith Donald R. Davis Martin Fogel 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1977,13(3):529-541
ABSTRACT: A methodology for obtaining the optimal design value to allow for sediment storage in a reservoir is presented for the situation where no data on sediment loads in the incoming streams are available. Information concerning the amount of sediment delivered to the reservoir over its life-time is obtained by a sediment yield model which uses data on rainfall amount and duration obtained from a nearby experimental watershed. Bayesian Decision Theory is used to obtain the optimal storage requirements in order to consider the natural variation of rainfall and the sampling error due to the short rainfall record available. The normally difficult calculations involved were made tractable by the use of simplifications and approximations valid in the context of the problem. Results show that sediment storage requirements can be calculated in this manner and that consideration of the uncertainties involved leads to a storage requirement substantially larger than that calculated without such consideration. 相似文献
140.
Potential increase in fire hazard as a result of timber harvesting is a concern of forest managers throughout the United States. Treating fuels can help reduce unacceptable fire hazards. To evaluate alternative fuel treatments, managers need to know their effects on fire hazard. A decision analysis approach to estimating fire hazard in terms of expected burned area was applied to a watershed in the Siskiyou National Forest (Oregon). Three treatment alternatives (do nothing and two levels of yarding unmerchantable material) were evaluated, and the effects of the treatments were projected over a 90-yr period. Initially, the effects of applying a treatment are small. After 50 years of treatment, the most intense alternative can be expected to show almost a 50% reduction in burned area compared to no treatment. The procedure also estimates burned are by fire size and fire intensity classes. Managers may find this useful for estimating expected fire effects associated with a particular fuel treatment regime. 相似文献