基于Logistic回归的燃气管网风险因素重要度分析方法研究

为确定燃气管网风险评估的关键风险因素,以A省各地市燃气管网为研究对象,基于燃气专家经验确定燃气管线风险等级,提出基于Logistic回归的燃气管网风险因素重要度分析方法。采用样本增强及随机抽样的方式,选取400个均衡样本作为管网评估数据输入,通过因子分析方法对其进行降维,得到3个公共因子并作为一级指标反向构建燃气管网风险评估指标体系;利用有序多分类Logistic回归方法,根据回归系数绝对值大小对风险因素进行重要度排序。研究结果表明：外界环境对燃气管网风险的贡献程度相对较高,管道自身因素和巡检养护次之。研究结果可为城市燃气风险防控提供理论依据和方法参考。     

Dynamic risk assessment for underground gas storage facilities based on Bayesian network

Loss of the underground gas storage process can have significant effects, and risk analysis is critical for maintaining the integrity of the underground gas storage process and reducing potential accidents. This paper focuses on the dynamic risk assessment method for the underground gas storage process. First, the underground gas storage process data is combined to create a database, and the fault tree of the underground gas storage facility is built by identifying the risk factors of the underground gas storage facility and mapping them into a Bayesian network. To eliminate the subjectivity in the process of determining the failure probability level of basic events, fuzzy numbers are introduced to determine the prior probability of the Bayesian network. Then, causal and diagnostic reasoning is performed on the Bayesian network to determine the failure level of the underground gas storage facilities. Based on the rate of change of prior and posterior probabilities, sensitivity and impact analysis are combined to determine the significant risk factors and possible failure paths. In addition, the time factor is introduced to build a dynamic Bayesian network to perform dynamic assessment and analysis of underground gas storage facilities. Finally, the dynamic risk assessment method is applied to underground gas storage facilities in depleted oil and gas reservoirs. A dynamic risk evaluation model for underground gas storage facilities is built to simulate and validate the dynamic risk evaluation method based on the Bayesian network. The results show that the proposed method has practical value for improving underground gas storage process safety.     

CFD-based assessment and visualization of the failure consequences of LPG tankers

This paper presents a simulation analysis of the explosions following an LPG leak and visualizes the consequences of the accident to reduce the consequences of the LPG leak explosion. Firstly, this paper proposes a CFD numerical simulation-based method for visualizing the consequences of LPG tanker failure. The method combines satellite maps and CFD numerical simulation data to visualize the consequences of LPG leaks and explosions, taking into account the influence of obstacles on the danger range of leaks and explosions; Secondly, this paper applies the method to a liquefied petroleum gas accident that occurred in the Wenling section of the Shenhai Expressway and performs CFD numerical simulation on the accident process and visualizes the consequences of the accident. Therefore, this method can provide a theoretical reference for the prior prevention of LPG accidents and the analysis of the consequences of accidents, as well as certain practical guidance instructive.     

An integrated EDIB model for probabilistic risk analysis of natural gas pipeline leakage accidents

Natural gas pipeline construction is developing rapidly worldwide to meet the needs of international and domestic energy transportation. Meanwhile, leakage accidents occur to natural gas pipelines frequently due to mechanical failure, personal operation errors, etc., and induce huge economic property loss, environmental damages, and even casualties. However, few models have been developed to describe the evolution process of natural gas pipeline leakage accidents (NGPLA) and assess their corresponding consequences and influencing factors quantitatively. Therefore, this study aims to propose a comprehensive risk analysis model, named EDIB (ET-DEMATEL-ISM-BN) model, which can be employed to analyze the accident evolution process of NGPLA and conduct probabilistic risk assessments of NGPLA with the consideration of multiple influencing factors. In the proposed integrated model, event tree analysis (ET) is employed to analyze the evolution process of NGPLA before the influencing factors of accident evolution can be identified with the help of accident reports. Then, the combination of DEMATEL (Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) and ISM (Interpretative Structural Modeling) is used to determine the relationship among accident evolution events of NGPLA and obtain a hierarchical network, which can be employed to support the construction of a Bayesian network (BN) model. The prior conditional probabilities of the BN model were determined based on the data analysis of 773 accident reports or expert judgment with the help of the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Finally, the developed BN model was used to conduct accident evolution scenario analysis and influencing factor sensitivity analysis with respect to secondary accidents (fire, vapor cloud explosion, and asphyxia or poisoning). The results show that ignition is the most critical influencing factor leading to secondary accidents. The occurrence time and occurrence location of NGPLA mainly affect the efficiency of emergency response and further influence the accident consequence. Meanwhile, the weight ranking of economic loss, environmental influence, and casualties on social influence is determined with respect to NGPLAs.     

珠江三角洲机动车排放控制措施协同效应分析

预测了2015年珠江三角洲机动车空气污染物和温室气体排放量,设计了6类单一控制、技术控制、结构控制以及综合控制措施的情景,并运用基准线年排放清单编制和协同效应坐标系法分析了污染物与温室气体减排的协同效应.结果表明,按目前机动车保有量增长趋势,2015年污染物和温室气体将以18%~120%的幅度增加;各控制措施下污染物和温室气体排放量均有下降,且均具有正向的协同效应,但减排的贡献差异较大.6类单一控制措施中淘汰黄标车和结构性控制措施分别对各污染物和温室气体的削减效果最明显,减排幅度均在40%以上,且正向协同效应突出,但相比其他措施,结构性控制措施实施难度大.     

剩余污泥水解酸化过程中胞外聚合物的影响因素研究

为了解胞外聚合物(EPS)对污泥水解酸化处理的影响,采用批量试验研究了污泥厌氧水解酸化处理过程中EPS的变化以及温度、pH值、污泥来源、污泥浓度对其的影响.结果表明,pH值和污泥来源对EPS产率、成分有显著的影响.强酸性和强碱性条件下污泥水解过程中溶解性EPS产率是中性条件下的2倍多;强酸性条件下细胞破裂较多,DNA物质占总EPS含量的20%左右;强碱性条件多糖类物质溶出量占总EPS的80%以上.A/O工艺污泥水解酸化EPS产率最大,平均值为41.1mg/gVSS;其次为SBR、氧化沟(OD)和A2/O工艺污泥,其中OD工艺污泥水解酸化产生的EPS中糖类与蛋白质的质量比(φ)值远小于其他工艺污泥.温度由18℃升高至35℃时,溶解性EPS产率增加近50%,多糖所占比例逐渐增大.污泥浓度由2000mg/L升高至6000mg/L,EPS产率增大至38.1mg/gVSS,当污泥浓度达到8000mg/L时,EPS产率明显减少(23.1mg/gVSS).     

不同类型建筑垃圾堆场大气降尘中水溶性离子污染特征

为了解建筑垃圾长期堆放产生的扬尘对大气的影响,选择北京市两个拆迁建筑垃圾堆放场,于2019年夏季、秋季进行降尘连续采样.共收集拆迁原地堆放有效降尘样品11个,异地集中堆放有效降尘样品11个,利用离子色谱法对大气降尘中水溶性离子组分及质量浓度进行分析.结果表明：阳离子中质量浓度最高的是Ca²⁺,其次是K⁺,NH₄⁺浓度最低;阴离子中质量浓度最高的是SO₄^2-,其次是Cl^-,NO₃^-最低,降尘样品呈碱性.建筑垃圾拆迁原地堆放场地Ca²⁺、Mg²⁺、SO₄^2-、Cl^-、Na⁺、NH₄⁺平均浓度高于异地集中堆放场地对应各离子浓度.拆迁原地堆放场地中Ca²⁺、SO₄^2-、Na⁺、Cl^-受局地风向影响较大,空间分布情况与风向扩散趋势大致相同;异地集中堆放场地各离子浓度高值区域分布较原地堆放远,Ca²⁺、K⁺、SO₄^2-、Cl^-、Mg²⁺这5种离子空间分布与次主导风向较为相符.同时,两个场地水溶性离子平均浓度与距建筑垃圾堆放地的距离有一定的关系,采样点在距堆放中心200 m范围之内离子平均浓度最大,总体来说,距离堆放中心近的采样点位离子浓度高于距离较远的采样点位离子浓度.     

用水基表面活性剂乳液回收废白土中蜡的界面张力研究

通过测定液体与废白土粉末之间的接触角及液体与蜡之间的液液界面张力，对水基表面活性剂乳液的溶剂及配方进行了优选，得到最佳的水基面活性剂乳液的组成为：质量分数０．２％的十二烷基苯磺酸钠＋体积分数为２．５％的乙醇＋体积分数为２５％的混合烃（正己烷＋苯，等体积）＋体积分数为７２．５％的水。实验证明，用该水基表面活性剂乳液处理废白土，蜡的回收率可达８０％，同时不破坏白土的颗粒结构。     

兰州城市主要大气污染治理方案和环境效益

根据兰州市经济技术条件，提出多种大气污染治理工程方案。用数值模式计算分析了这些单项方案和综合方案可减少的大气污染物排放量和空气质量改善程度，推荐了当前可行的投资低、环境效益好的优化综合方案，该综合方案可使兰州市区空气中SO2浓度下降24.6%-75.4%，TSP降10.4%-45.4%；降少数网格点外，SO2浓度都不出现超标。     

工业烟气氨法-络合法同时脱硫脱硝

在脱硫脱硝喷淋装置上采用氨法-络合法处理工业烟气。考察了吸收液pH、Fe(Ⅱ)EDTA浓度、初始烟气浓度、液气比对烟气同时脱硫脱硝效果的影响。实验结果表明:吸收液的酸碱度通过影响Fe(Ⅱ)与EDTA的络合形式进而影响NO去除率;SO_2去除率主要受吸收液pH和初始SO_2质量浓度的影响;当吸收液pH大于8、吸收液Fe(Ⅱ)EDTA浓度大于0.100 mol/L、初始SO_2质量浓度小于1 500 mg/m3、初始NO质量浓度为1 200 mg/m3时,SO_2去除率均在95%以上,NO去除率为54%;当液气比由1 L/m3增大至4 L/m3时,有效脱硫时间和有效脱硝时间分别增长了7 min和4 min。