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51.
Martin D. Robards John J. Burns Chanda L. Meek Annette Watson 《Journal of environmental management》2009,91(1):57-66
Decision rules are the agreed-upon points at which specific management interventions are initiated. For marine mammal management under the U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA), decision rules are usually based on either a numeric population or biological-removal approach. However, for walrus and other ice-associated pinnipeds, the inability to reliably assess population numbers or biological removals highlights a significant gap in the MMPA, particularly when the Arctic environment is rapidly changing. We describe the MMPA's ecosystem-based management goals, and why managers have bypassed these goals in favor of an approach that depends upon numerical population assessment. We then revisit the statute's primary goals in light of current knowledge about the Pacific walrus ecosystem and new developments in environmental governance. We argue that to monitor and respond to changes in the walrus ecosystem, decision rules should be based on scientific criteria that depend less on the currently-impractical goal of accurately enumerating population size and trends, or removals from that population. Rather, managers should base decisions on ecological needs and observed ecological changes. To implement this approach would require an amendment to the MMPA that supports filling the gap in management with achievable decision rules. Alternatively, walrus and other ice-associated pinnipeds will remain largely unmanaged during a period of profound environmental change. 相似文献
52.
In Bureaucratizing the Good Samaritan , Waters (2001) argues that bureaucratic rationality distracts humanitarian agencies from the needs of the people they are supposed to assist, in favour of other values that their institutional frameworks dictate. We test his claim by investigating the response to the Pakistan 2005 earthquake. One of us (Dittemore) worked with the United Nations Joint Logistics Centre in the theatre, managing a relief cargo shipment database. The response, known as 'Operation Winter Race', was hampered by extreme logistical challenges, but ultimately succeeded in averting a second disaster resulting from cold and starvation. We use statistical models to probe whether survivor needs significantly guided decisions to deliver relief to affected communities. Needs assessments remained incomplete and incoherent. We measure needs through proxy indicators and integrate them, on a Geographic Information System (GIS) platform, with logistics and relief delivery data. We find that, despite strong logistics effects, needs orientations were significant. However, the strength of decision factors varies between commodity types (food versus clothing and shelter versus reconstruction materials) as well as over the different phases of the response. This study confirms Thomas's observation that logistics databases are rich 'repositories of data that can be analyzed to provide post-event learning' (Thomas, 2003, p. 4). This article is an invitation for others to engage in creative humanitarian data management. 相似文献
53.
M. Reza Ghanbarpour Keith William Hipel 《Environment, Development and Sustainability》2009,11(2):241-253
Environmental disputes arise due to opposing views of various groups about their environmental concerns and their economic
or developmental interests. Development and protection of the environment constitute two main contradictory objectives within
the sustainable development paradigm, which are often in conflict. The decision support system, GMCR II, which implements
the graph model for conflict resolution, is employed to model and analyze an environmental dispute arising over the construction
of a new freeway between the Iranian capital, Tehran, and the city of Chalous located in the north of the country. This study
demonstrates that the graph model for conflict resolution can be used as a methodology to promote a reasonable balance between
economic development and environmental protection from a strategic viewpoint. In addition to systematically modelling the
conflict by putting the existing information into proper perspective, it is shown how conflict analysis can be used for comparing
alternative scenarios and predicting possible future outcomes.
Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue. 相似文献
54.
Kristina Cydzik Terri S. Hogue 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2009,45(3):702-714
Abstract: This paper investigates application of the Army Corps of Engineers’ Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC‐HMS) to a burned watershed in San Bernardino County, California. We evaluate the HEC‐HMS’ ability to simulate discharge in prefire and postfire conditions in a semi arid watershed and the necessary parameterizations for modeling hydrologic response during the immediate, and subsequent recovery, period after a wildfire. The model is applied to City Creek watershed, which was 90% burned during the Old Fire of October 2003. An optimal spatial resolution for the HEC‐HMS model was chosen based on an initial sensitivity analysis of subbasin configurations and related model performance. Five prefire storms were calibrated for the selected model resolution, defining a set of parameters that reasonably simulate prefire conditions. Six postfire storms, two from each of the following rainy (winter) seasons were then selected to simulate postfire response and evaluate relative changes in parameter values and model behavior. There were clear trends in the postfire parameters [initial abstractions (Ia), curve number (CN), and lag time] that reveal significant (and expected) changes in watershed behavior. CN returns to prefire (baseline) values by the end of Year 2, while Ia approaches baseline by the end of the third rainy season. However, lag time remains significantly lower than prefire values throughout the three‐year study period. Our results indicate that recovery of soil conditions and related runoff response is not entirely evidenced by the end of the study period (three rainy seasons postfire). Understanding the evolution of the land surface and related hydrologic properties during the highly dynamic postfire period, and accounting for these changes in model parameterizations, will allow for more accurate and reliable discharge simulations in both the immediate, and subsequent, rainy seasons following fire. 相似文献
55.
After three decades of sustained continuous improvement of mine safety performances in the US, mine disasters in 2006 and 2007 compromised an excellent record and presented new challenges and vulnerabilities for the underground coal mining industry. In the aftermath of the incidents, formal investigations and new scrutiny of mine safety by the US Congress and expert study groups followed. The US Congress passed the Mine Improvement and New Emergency Response Act of 2006 (MINER Act), which mandated new laws to address the issues, including those related to mine fires and explosions from which miners must be protected. The National Mining Association-sponsored Mine Safety Technology and Training Commission report highlighted the role of risk analysis and management in identifying and controlling major hazards, such as fires and explosions. In this paper an approach is given for analyzing the risks for fires and explosions based on the Mine Safety and Health Administration citation database. Using 2006 citation data and focusing on subsystem failures, the methodology is applied to a database for a pilot sample of underground coal mines stratified by mine size and state. 相似文献
56.
57.
Before climate change is considered in long-term coastal management, it is necessary to investigate how institutional stakeholders in coastal management conceptualize climate change, as their awareness will ultimately affect their actions. Using questionnaires in eight Baltic Sea riparian countries, this study examines environmental managers' awareness of climate change. Our results indicate that problems related to global warming are deemed secondary to short-term social and economic issues. Respondents agree that problems caused by global warming will become increasingly important, but pay little attention to adaptation and mitigation strategies. Current environmental problems are expected to continue to be urgent in the future. We conclude that an apparent gap exists between decision making, public concerns, and scientific consensus, resulting in a situation in which the latest evidence rarely influences commonly held opinions. 相似文献
58.
北京市水资源开发利用已经超过了水资源承载能力范围,由此引发的水资源短缺问题日益严重.对污水的综合利用进行研究可以达到持续利用水资源的目的,解决水资源短缺问题.以北京市2005-2012年污水排放量资料为基础,运用灰色系统模型,对工业、生活污水排放量及总污水排放量进行了预测,分析北京市污水排放量走势及存在的问题,提出未来北京市污水综合利用的对策措施. 相似文献
59.
The paper tests the material Kuznets Curve (MKC) hypothesis with regard to aluminium consumption for 20 high-income countries over the period 1970 to 2009. The test is based on the suggestion of Narayan and Narayan (2010). Various unit root and cointegration tests are applied. The aluminium and GDP series are found to be integrated of order one and cointegrated. Additionally, the Blundell–Bond system generalized methods-of-moments (GMM) is employed to conduct a panel causality test in a vector error-correction mechanism (VECM) setting. Unidirectional causality running from real per capita GDP to the aluminium intensity is uncovered in both the short-run and long-run. While controlling for structural shocks, the MKC hypothesis is found to hold at individual levels for Austria, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Italy, Japan, and United Kingdom as well as for the whole panel. A 1% increase in GDP generates an increase of 0.87% in metal intensity in the short-run and a fall of 0.82% in the long-run for the panel. 相似文献
60.
Increased salinity in spawning and nursery grounds in the Savannah River estuary was cited as the primary cause of a 97% decrease
in adult striped bass (Morone saxatilis) and a concomitant 96% decrease in striped bass egg production. Restoration efforts focused on environmental remediation
and stock enhancement have resulted in restored salinity patterns and increased egg and adult abundances. However, future
water needs or harbor development may preclude further recovery by reducing freshwater inflow or increasing salinity intrusion.
To assess the effect of potential changes in the salinity regime, we developed models relating discharge, tidal phase, and
salinity to striped bass egg and early larval survival and re-cast these in a quantitative Bayesian belief network. The model
indicated that a small upstream shift (≤1.67 km) in the salinity regime would have the least impact on striped bass early
life history survival, whereas shifts >1.67 km would have progressively larger impacts, with a 8.33-km shift potentially reducing
our estimated survival probability by >28%. Such an impact could have cumulative and long-term detrimental effects on the
recovery of the Savannah River striped bass population. The available salinity data were collected during average and low
flows, so our model represents some typical and some extreme conditions during a striped bass spawning season. Our model is
a relatively simplistic, “first-order” attempt at evaluating potential effects of changes in the Savannah River estuarine
salinity regime and points to areas of concern and potential future research. 相似文献