The apportionment of quadratic entropy: a useful alternative for partitioning diversity in ecological data

Many methods that study the diversity within hierarchically structured populations have been developed in genetics. Among them, the analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) (Excoffier et al., 1992) has the advantage of including evolutionary distances between individuals. AMOVA is a special case of a far more general statistical scheme produced by Rao (1982a; 1986) and called the apportionment of quadratic entropy (APQE). It links diversity and dissimilarity and allows the decomposition of diversity according to a given hierarchy. We apply this framework to ecological data showing that APQE may be very useful for studying diversity at various spatial scales. Moreover, the quadratic entropy has a critical advantage over usual diversity indices because it takes into account differences between species. Finally, the differences that can be incorporated in APQE may be either taxonomic or functional (biological traits), which may be of critical interest for ecologists.     

森林旅游开发中环境保护问题的博弈分析

介绍了博弈论的基本内容,运用了博弈论的基本原理分析和认识森林旅游开发和周边地区生态环境保护之间存在的矛盾,阐述了博弈论的基本理论在森林旅游开发环保中的应用,分析指出应结合市场机制和政府政策改变博弈方的收益,使博弈达到有利于环境保护的纳什均衡,提高森林旅游开发中的环境保护效率,以及处理森林旅游开发中环境保护问题的有效决策.     

Active Adaptive Management for Conservation

Abstract:  Active adaptive management balances the requirements of management with the need to learn about the system being managed, which leads to better decisions. It is difficult to judge the benefit of management actions that accelerate information gain, relative to the benefit of making the best management decision given what is known at the time. We present a first step in developing methods to optimize management decisions that incorporate both uncertainty and learning via adaptive management. We assumed a manager can allocate effort to discrete units (e.g., areas for revegetation or animals for reintroduction), the outcome can be measured as success or failure (e.g., the revegetation in an area is successful or the animal survives and breeds), and the manager has two possible management options from which to choose. We further assumed that there is an annual budget that may be allocated to one or both of the two options and that the manager must decide on the allocation. We used Bayesian updating of the probability of success of the two options and stochastic dynamic programming to determine the optimal strategy over a specified number of years. The costs, level of certainty about the success of the two options, and the timeframe of management all influenced the optimal allocation of the annual budget. In addition, the choice of management objective had a large influence on the optimal decision. In a case study of Merri Creek, Melbourne, Australia, we applied the approach to determining revegetation strategies. Our approach can be used to determine how best to manage ecological systems in the face of uncertainty.     

Incorporating the Effects of Socioeconomic Uncertainty into Priority Setting for Conservation Investment

Abstract:  Uncertainty in the implementation and outcomes of conservation actions that is not accounted for leaves conservation plans vulnerable to potential changes in future conditions. We used a decision-theoretic approach to investigate the effects of two types of investment uncertainty on the optimal allocation of global conservation resources for land acquisition in the Mediterranean Basin. We considered uncertainty about (1) whether investment will continue and (2) whether the acquired biodiversity assets are secure, which we termed transaction uncertainty and performance uncertainty, respectively. We also developed and tested the robustness of different rules of thumb for guiding the allocation of conservation resources when these sources of uncertainty exist. In the presence of uncertainty in future investment ability (transaction uncertainty), the optimal strategy was opportunistic, meaning the investment priority should be to act where uncertainty is highest while investment remains possible. When there was a probability that investments would fail (performance uncertainty), the optimal solution became a complex trade-off between the immediate biodiversity benefits of acting in a region and the perceived longevity of the investment. In general, regions were prioritized for investment when they had the greatest performance certainty, even if an alternative region was highly threatened or had higher biodiversity value. The improved performance of rules of thumb when accounting for uncertainty highlights the importance of explicitly incorporating sources of investment uncertainty and evaluating potential conservation investments in the context of their likely long-term success.     

环境中一氧化碳监测技术现状

通过对一氧化碳危害性的论述,说明了环境中对一氧化碳浓度进行监测的必要性。对基于一氧化碳的理化性质进行的几种检测技术及在此基础上开发的监测仪器,设备进行了分析、比较,阐述了一氧化碳监测技术的现状。     

地面运动转动分量的合成方法

假设近场地面运动由体波产生（忽略面波的影响）,根据弹性半空间的平面谐波理论,提出了利用平动分量加速度记录合成地面转动加速时程的方法。该方法考虑了由于实际介质的不均匀性而产生的地震波频散现象。     

冰对斜体结构作用的二维和三维力学模型分析

通常情况下，作用在斜体结构表面的冰力小于垂直结构，因此斜体结构成为有冰海区海洋结构的优选结构，冰对斜体结构作用力学机制的分析是近些年来国际上研究的热点问题。本文运用简单的二维理论及较为复杂的三维理论，依据辽东湾环境条件，采用计算与作图分析的手段，对摩擦系数、坡角、冰强度及冰厚如何影响作用在斜体结构上的水平冰力进行了讨论，并验证了相应结论     

济南市水域鱼类功能群结构及其季节性变化

鱼类对于维护河流生态系统的稳定具有重要作用,季节性变化在一定程度上影响鱼类的群落结构.为了解济南市水域鱼类的功能群结构及其季节性差异,于2014年春季（5月）、夏季（8月）和秋季（11月）选取济南市水域的40个采样点对鱼类群落和水环境理化因子,通过单因素方差分析、多响应置换过程以及典范对应分析等方法,分析鱼类功能群在不同季节的差异性.结果表明:①春季共鉴定出鱼类5目7科26种,夏季为5目9科32种,秋季为5目7科20种.将鱼类按栖息水层、产卵类型、对环境的耐受性以及营养结构4个方面分为4种功能类群共11亚类.春季主要以植食性、底层与敏感种功能群为主,夏季主要以肉食性、中下层、耐污种、特殊产卵与粘性卵功能群为主,秋季主要以杂食性、浮性卵、中上层、耐污种功能群为主.②典范对应结果显示,影响粘性卵功能群、肉食性功能群、底层功能群以及敏感种功能群分布的驱动因子是ρ（DO）,电导率则是影响植食性功能群的驱动因子.研究显示,鱼类功能群的季节性变化受到内源性和外源性的共同影响,即鱼类自身生活习性和水环境因子季节性变化的共同影响.      

基于GIS格网化分析支撑的旅游空间规划技术方法研究——以青岛市为例

空间规划是支撑旅游地发展规划的核心章节,目前主要依靠规划者经验判断,主观性较强,缺乏客观方面的信息数据支持。论文将GIS格网化与旅游资源评价模型相结合,提出了旅游资源单体采集、旅游资源格网化及其空间分析方法,并融合旅游资源群评价模型、旅游功能区识别模型、旅游线路和空间发展轴线识别模型予以支撑,形成了标准化的旅游资源采集、评价到空间识别的集成技术方法;并以青岛市为例,识别出了旅游资源集群及其发展潜力、旅游功能区和空间拓展轴线,确立了“一心、一带、三轴、五区”的空间发展格局。论文初步探讨了GIS格网化空间分析方法在区域旅游规划中的应用,能够补充传统定性评价方法客观性不足的缺陷,实现复杂旅游资源数据的单体评价、旅游资源集群评价、旅游功能区识别、旅游线路和空间发展轴线优选的系列化分析技术路线,可为延伸旅游规划深度、提高规划精度提供科学参考。     

利益冲突群体的安全人性及其弱点

根据安全人性需求理论对利益冲突群体形成的原因进行了分析,在安全人性理论的基础上揭示了利益冲突群体安全人性的本质。通过统计分析我国近14年发生的群体性事件,得出了我国群体性事件的特点、矛盾主体、原因。运用蝴蝶突变理论对群体性事件发生的原因进行分析,构建了群体性事件发生的过程机理模型,提出了应对群体性事件发生的思路,总结出利益冲突群体安全人性的应用领域。