Studying ecological communities from a neutral standpoint: A review of models’ structure and parameter estimation

Neutral models provide an alternative to niche-based assembly rules of ecological communities by assuming that communities’ properties are shaped by the stochastic interplay between ecological drift, migration and speciation. The recent and ongoing interest about neutral assumptions has produced many developments on the theoretical side, with nevertheless limited echoes in terms of analyses of real-world data. The present review paper aims to help bridge the widening gap between modellers and field ecologists through two objectives. First, to provide a multi-criteria typology of the main neutral models, including those from population genetics that have not yet been transposed to ecology, by considering how the fundamental processes of ecological drift, speciation and migration are modelled and, specifically, how space is taken into account. Second, to review methods recently proposed to estimate models parameters from field data, a point that should be mastered to allow for broader applications.     

Incentive compatibility tests of choice experiment value elicitation questions

This paper uses laboratory experiments with induced values to address fundamental issues related to the incentive compatibility of choice experiment value elicitation questions. In particular, we compare two- versus three-option choice sets and the effect of using alternative provision rules, including one where the outcome is influenced by both participant and “regulator” votes. We find the overall proportion of choices that are inconsistent with induced preferences is rather low. However, there are more deviations from induced preferences for two-option choice sets, and for alternatives to a simple plurality vote implementation rule. A multinomial probit analysis of choices in tandem with a mixed logit welfare analysis suggests there is a statistically significant but modest degree of bias towards selecting the status quo option.     

A note on density dependence in population models

One of the most studied phenomena in ecology is density dependent regulation. The model most frequently used to study this behaviour is the theta-logistic model. However, disagreement has developed within the ecology community pertaining to the interpretation of this model’s parameters, and thus as to appropriate values for the parameters to assume. In particular, the parameter θ$\theta$ has been allowed to take negative values, resulting in the ‘growth rate parameter’ estimated to be negative for species which are extant and exhibit no signs of becoming extinct in the short-term. Here we explain this phenomenon by formulating the theta-logistic model in the manner in which the original logistic model was formulated by Verhulst (1838), in doing so providing a simple interpretation of model parameters and thus restrictions on values the parameters may assume. We conclude that θ$\theta$ should (almost always) be restricted to values greater than −1$-1$. This has implications for studies assessing the form of density dependence from data. Additionally, another model appearing in the literature is presented which provides a more flexible model of density dependence at the expense of only one additional parameter.     

Proposing an information criterion for individual-based models developed in a pattern-oriented modelling framework

Individual-based models (IBMs) have been improved in quality and reliability in recent years with an approach called pattern-oriented modelling (POM). POM proposes guidelines to develop models reproducing multiple patterns observed on the field and to test systematically how well the IBMs reproduce them. POM studies used generally traditional methods of goodness of fit such as the sum of squares evaluation or ad hoc comparisons of fitting errors and variations. Model selection, however, can be a rigorous statistical approach based on information theory and information criteria such as the Akaike's information criterion (AIC) or the deviance information criterion (DIC). So far, it has not been tried to link POM to these rigorous techniques. The main problems to achieve that are: (a) the difficulty to have likelihood functions for IBMs’ parameters and (b) the possibility to obtain posterior distributions of IBMs’ parameters given the patterns to reproduce. In a first part, this paper answers problem (a) by proposing and explaining how to calculate a deviance measure (POMDEV) for models developed in a context of POM. And while answering the second problem, a second part of the paper proposes an information criterion for model selection in a POM context (the pattern-oriented modelling information criterion: POMIC). This criterion does not yet have the same theoretical foundation as, e.g., AIC, but uses formal analogies to the DIC. In a third part POMIC is tested with a modelling exercise. This exercise shows the potential of POMIC to use multiple patterns for selecting among multiple potential submodels and eventually select the most parsimonious and well fitting model version. We conclude that POMIC, although being a heuristically derived approach, can greatly improve the POM framework.     

保护性耕作对土壤线虫c-p类群及功能团的影响

以辽宁彰武县保护性耕作示范推广基地土壤为研究对象,通过实地调查和取样分析,对比研究了传统犁耕和6 a保护性耕作(免耕秸秆覆盖)条件下的土壤线虫c-p(colonizer-persister)类群及功能团,为评价保护性耕作的土壤生态效应提供理论依据.研究发现,与犁耕相比,保护性耕作显著增加了土壤线虫各c-p类群及绝大多数功能团的多度,但显著减少了Ba4和Om5功能团多度.此外,保护性耕作还改变了土壤线虫生活史和功能团的结构特征:在大部分研究土层,c-p1和c-p2线虫的相对多度显著提高,而c-p3、e-p4以及c-p3-5类群显著降低;Ba1、Ba2、Ba3、Fu4和H5功能团的相对多度显著提高,而Ba4、H3和Om5的相对多度显著降低,Fu2、H2和Om4相对多度的变化较复杂,在表土层表现为显著抑制,在15～30cm土层则为促进作用.土壤线虫c-p类群和功能团的多度及结构特征可能适合作为评价保护性耕作对土壤质量影响的生物学指标.     

MWNTs/TiO2/聚酯功能复合膜吸附及其净化性能

以聚酯工业滤布为基膜,采用溶胶凝胶和浸渍方法制备了具有吸附-光催化功能的多壁碳纳米管(MWNTs)/TiO2涂层的复合膜,该复合膜对模拟水样低浓度(10mg/L)的双酚A具有较高吸附性能.随着复合膜上负载二氧化钛中的MWNTs的比例(17.6%,29.9%,和46.0%)增加,吸附去除率显著提高;吸附饱和的复合膜上的污染物双酚A可通过20W 紫外灯(l=254nm)照射Fenton氧化反应去除.吸附实验和HPLC分析表明,除了超声处理会引起浸渍负载的材料脱落外,复合膜吸附性能恢复较好.     

Transport of volatile compounds in porous media in the presence of a trapped gas phase

The presence of an immobile gaseous phase in an otherwise-saturated porous medium affects the transport of volatile compounds. The linear theory of partitioning tracers suggests that a volatile tracer introduced into such a system should be retarded with a constant retardation factor. Using high concentrations, however, the saturation of the gaseous phase will change as an effect of the tracer test itself. Competitive gas transfer among all volatile compounds and the change of saturation may lead to tracer concentrations that are temporarily higher than those injected. We analyze the system in the framework of the coherence theory by Helfferich [Soc. Pet. Eng. J. 21 (1) (1981) 51]. The governing equations are formulated as functions of total concentration, i.e., the mass of solutes in all phases per pore volume. Neglecting dispersion and mass-transfer kinetics, we derive the characteristic form of the resulting system of hyperbolic equations. In a system with N volatile compounds, a variation of the concentrations splits up into N waves, each traveling with its own characteristic velocity. If the presence of a gaseous phase is sustained, one wave will be a standing one. We perform numerical model calculations for tracers with various Henry's law coefficients and show that the results agree with the semi-analytical solution obtained by coherence theory.     

学习邓小平理论 实施可持续发展战略

邓小平同志关于发展的理论中,包含了丰富的具有中国特色的可持续发展思想,以江泽民同志为核心的第三代领导集体,丰富和发展着邓小平理论。深入学习邓小平理论,对我国实施可持续发展战略,有重要的意义。     

复垦红壤中牧草根际微生物群落功能多样性

通过盆栽试验研究了浙江省诸暨铜矿区复垦红壤牧草根际微生物生物量及群落功能多样性的变化.结果表明,种植不同牧草使矿区土壤根际微生物生物量碳发生了显著的变化,其影响大小因矿区土壤污染程度而异.无污染和轻度污染土壤根际微生物生物量碳变化表现为黑麦草+三叶草>三叶草>黑麦草>未种植土壤,处理间差异均达显著水平(P<0.05),重度污染环境下各处理间差异不明显.Biolog数据分析显示,种植不同牧草的矿区土壤根际微生物群落结构和功能多样性也发生了相应改变,根际土壤微生物群落代谢剖面(AWCD)均显著高于未种植牧草土壤,处理间差异达极显著水平(P<0.001).典型变量分析揭示了不同牧草根际微生物群落利用碳源种类和数量存在明显差异.     

安全控制论原理和应用

以系统论、信息论、控制论为指导思想,结合安全系统工程现场实践,对开发、完善安全控制论的理论体系及其应用等方面研究成果作了简要介绍,包括安全控制论的数学模型,安全系统的控制方式,安全计量及其在安全评价等方面的应用.