卡尔曼滤波理论在预报地面径流污染中的应用

本文主要介绍流域径流污染的系统分析方法，并提出采用卡尔曼滤波理论进行仿真，从而实现污染的预报。     

基于TPB的炼化装置大检修违章安全管理应用实践

针对安全管理制度、监督制度、安全黑名单等对违章行为态度、违章主观规范和违章知觉行为控制的重要影响,构建了基于计划行为理论的炼化装置大检修违章安全管理模式,并通过强化管理制度建设、建立违章黑名单、全员安全积分劳动竞赛等具体应用实践,有效降低并避免实际违章行为,充分保障了装置大检修期间的现场安全。     

国外凹凸棒石粘土的若干情况

本文主要介绍国外特别是美国凹凸棒石或坡缕缟石的名称由来、分布、基础理论和物化性能研究，开发应用，产品标准，公司及规模，与我国凹凸棒石粘土研究、开发应用的比较等。     

利用航空γ能谱资料快速预测环境氡浓度

航空γ能谱测量方法是核辐射区域本地调查,区域环境中核辐射污染调查和评价的有效方法。文中不同于以往的利用航空γ能谱测量数据换算地面(1 m高)空气吸收剂量率的方法,而是运用大地-大气氡交换理论模型及氡的析出率理论,预测区域空气中氡浓度,并可计算出区域氡地质潜势。计算结果表明方法快速、高效,具有较好的实用价值。     

环境污染系统的灰色投入产出模型

将投入产出模型与灰色理论结合起来，建立了以灰色预测为基础的环境污染系统灰色投入产出模型，探索了如何从污染物总量控制目标出发来规划和发展生产。     

中国海洋自然保护区功能分区模式及分类管理初探

我斟海洋自然保护区目前正处于高速发展过程中，保护区已有的功能分区模式已不能满足保护区建设和管理工作的需要。本文通过对海洋自然保护区的功能分区的分析探讨，提出不同类型的保护区应采用不同的功能分区模式进行管理。另外，以中华白海豚自然保护区为例，在分析其功能分区和种群分布特点的基础上，提出了不设核心区模式。最后，提出在保护区高速发展的同时，应加强海洋自然保护区本身的研究，应加强保护区的分类及功能分区的研究。     

岷山北坡高海拔区草本植物群落特征及主要植物功能群C、N、P含量分析

海拔是影响物种多样性格局的决定性因素之一,对生态系统格局与过程起着重要作用。运用回归分析、相关分析、Duncan多重比较和Pearson相关系数检验对岷山北坡高海拔2300—2900 m草本群落特征、群落初级生产力及不同植物功能群进行分析。结果表明:样地共调查出草本植物20科35属44种,菊科、百合科和蔷薇科的物种数分别占总物种数的比例为25%,14%和11%,表现出明显的优势性。草本群落的生物量均与海拔梯度的相关性不显著(P>0.05),且随海拔升高均表现出先增后减的总体趋势;植物盖度、物种丰富度、密度均与海拔表现出极显著负相关关系(P<0.001),而植物高度与海拔表现出极显著正相关关系(P<0.01)。从功能群的角度分析,随着海拔梯度的不断升高,禾本科、菊科以及杂类草3个植物功能群的叶碳含量(LCC)和根碳含量(RCC)整体呈上升趋势;叶磷含量(LPC)整体都呈下降趋势,而禾本科的根磷含量(RPC)呈上升趋势,菊科和杂类草表现出先升后降的趋势;叶氮含量(LNC)禾本科呈下降趋势,菊科呈上升趋势,杂类草呈先上升后下降的变化趋势,根氮含量(RNC)禾本科和杂类草的呈上升趋势,而菊科表现出先上升后下降的趋势。研究结果初步揭示了岷山北坡不同海拔梯度草本植物群落特征及其生物量的变化特征,以及物种多样性和主要植物功能群碳、氮、磷元素在海拔梯度上的分布差异,为今后岷山北坡草本群落分布格局和生物地球化学循环的研究提供科学依据。     

A Decision Framework for the Adaptive Management of an Exploited Species with Implications for Marine Reserves

Abstract:  Marine reserves have both conservation and fishery benefits. Nevertheless, there are no general criteria about when and where to establish new reserves, how to evaluate their efficacy, and how to conduct adaptive management to achieve conservation goals. We applied a decision-theory framework to optimally allocate conservation resources between improving data on population status and establishing a reserve for species conservation. Our goal was to maximize reserve benefits given the constraints of a population growth rate that would permit sustainability of resources. We illustrate our decision framework with a retrospective analysis of a 7-year time series on abundance of the leopard grouper ( Mycteroperca rosacea ) in the Sea of Cortés, Mexico. We used the lower bound of the distribution of the population growth rate ( λ ) as a decision rule for determining how many years of monitoring are needed to detect reserve effects. We determined the minimum time frame needed to estimate λ based on a stated level of risk tolerance for four sites. As expected, the coefficient of variation for the λ declined with the number of years of data. This increased precision with additional years of data resulted from the high degree of annual variability in the system. Where populations were slow to respond to reserves, more data were needed to detect a positive λ value. For the leopard grouper case study, confidence in the estimate of λ increased with the number of years of data. Our decision framework may be used to identify the minimum number of years of data needed before a management decision about reserve establishment could be made that is reasonably likely to meet its management objectives.     

Incorporating Collateral Data in Conservation Biology

Abstract:  Conservation biologists often need to set ecological modeling assumptions or estimate parameters from sparse data. In some cases this problem can be addressed by incorporating data from closely related species or from the same species at different sites (i.e., collateral data). Currently no structured methods exist for incorporating such information. An analogous problem in Actuarial science is to set premium rates in situations with little direct data on claim frequency or size. The rates are estimated using actuarial credibility theory, which incorporates collateral data with the direct data. actuarial credibility theory combined with the actuarial control cycle financial management process also provides an adaptive mechanism for updating assumptions. This theory may have some utility for ecologists wanting to incorporate collateral data in an adaptive management framework, a companion to approaches such as Bayesian updating. We describe the historical development of actuarial credibility theory from early ad hoc methods to empirical Bayes approaches. We explore some of the theory's strengths, such as relative simple formulae for incorporation collateral data, and we explore some of the theory's weaknesses, such as the use of the best linear approximation to the Bayes estimate. We illustrate potential applications of the theory using an example on the mortality rate of the Powerful Owl (  Ninox strenua ).     

虾池环境生物修复作用菌的模拟应用

在模拟条件下，研究了虾池环境生物修复作用菌对对虾养殖环境中虾池有机物的降解过程，结果表明，虾池环境生物修复作用菌能明显改善虾池环境，降低有机物的含量（4d后CODMn的去除率为43.52%)。将大分子的有机物降解为小分子的无机氮等；对虾养殖池中作用菌的使用量以262.5kghm^-2为宜。图3参13