Population dynamics models based on cumulative density dependent feedback: A link to the logistic growth curve and a test for symmetry using aphid data

Density dependent feedback, based on cumulative population size, has been advocated to explain and mathematically characterize “boom and bust” population dynamics. Such feedback results in a bell-shaped population trajectory of the population density. Here, we note that this trajectory is mathematically described by the logistic probability density function. Consequently, the cumulative population follows a time trajectory that has the same shape as the cumulative logistic function. Thus, the Pearl–Verhulst logistic equation, widely used as a phenomenological model for density dependent population growth, can be interpreted as a model for cumulative rather than instantaneous population. We extend the cumulative density dependent differential equation model to allow skew in the bell-shaped population trajectory and present a simple statistical test for skewness. Model properties are exemplified by fitting population trajectories of the soybean aphid, Aphis glycines. The linkage between the mechanistic underpinnings of the logistic probability density function and cumulative distribution function models could open up new avenues for analyzing population data.     

Modelling the propagation of an internal solitary wave across double ridges and a shelf-slope

Evolution of the internal solitary waves (ISWs) in the northern South China Sea (SCS) has recently attracted the attention of many oceanographers in Taiwan and the United States. These ISWs are believed to have been induced by a branch of the Kuroshio current over Luzon Strait, which propagates westward over two ridges in the Luzon Strait between Taiwan and the Philippines, and further onto the continental margin with a shelf-slope in the SCS. This paper presents some preliminary results for the evolution of a depression ISW across two triangular obstacles using numerical modelling and laboratory experiments. The experimental results confirm that the intervals and relative height between the two obstacles are important factors in the interaction of an ISW with the obstacles. However, in the case of the movement of an ISW of depression-type across the Luzon Strait, the effect of the two ridges on the characteristics of the ISW might be less significant than that from the shelf-slope, due to the variations in relative water depth. Results from numerical experiments also show that the amplitude of an ISW can be augmented once the wave commences its contact with a shelf-slope, where an internal hydraulic jump and wave breaking with vortex motion are evident in the laboratory experiments. Eventually, an ISW of depression-type could become an elevation-type at the edge of the continental shelf landwards beyond the turning point, where the upper layer is larger than the bottom layer in a stratified water column.     

综合物探技术在矿井工作面底板含水构造探测中的应用

为了查明汾源煤业文明矿5-101首采工作面底板岩层赋水情况和煤层地质异常体情况,并对其进行突水危险性区域划分及评价,采用瞬变电磁法、直流电法和无线电波透视法三种物探方法综合勘探,综合分析三种物探方法探查结果,并结合揭露情况和钻孔验证。结果表明:位于切眼往外(0~250)m范围内,工作面底板相对破碎、裂隙岩溶发育或富水性强,导高大,且煤层内部较不均匀,存在多条5m以上落差含水断裂破碎带,此区域突水危险性最大;切眼往外(300~380)m范围内存在局部富水区域,导高较小,但不存在构造破碎带,突水可能性较小;工作面其他区域都较安全。综合物探比单一物探更具有准确性和可靠性,更符合工程实际情况,为采取针对性的治理措施从而实现安全回采提供了参考依据。     

Integrated-signal-based leak location method for liquid pipelines

Leaks in pipelines can cause major incidents resulting in both human injuries and financial losses. Among the considerable leak detection and location methods, the Negative Pressure Wave (NPW) based method has been widely used in locating leaks in liquid pipelines. The NPW based method only monitors the pressure changes at two ends of a pipeline. But the pressure is apt to be fixed by the end equipment and the change of it induced by a small or slow leakage is too small to be detected, which limit the application of the NPW based method in these situations. This paper presents a novel leak location method based on integrated signal, which is a combination of the pressure and flow rate signals. The representation of the integrated signal is derived from the transient analysis of the leakage. For the change of the integrated signal induced by a leakage is larger than the pressure change and it is also unaffected by the end equipment, the proposed method can be used to detect and locate small or slow leakage in a pipeline and can also be used in pipelines which end pressures are fixed by some kinds of equipment. The validation of the proposed method also confirms its advantages.     

A new shock tube configuration for studying dust-lifting during the initiation of a coal dust explosion

The traditional defence against propagating coal dust explosions is the application of dry stone dust. This proven and effective safety measure is strictly regulated based on extensive international experience. While new products, such as foamed stone dust, offer significant practical benefits, no benchmark tests currently exist to certify their dust lifting performance in comparison to dry stone dust. This paper reviews the coal dust explosion mechanism, and argues that benchmark testing should focus on dust lifting during the initial development of the explosion, prior to arrival of the flame. In a practical context, this requires the generation of shock waves with Mach numbers ranging from 1.05 to 1.4, and test times of the order of 10's to 100's of milliseconds. These proposed test times are significantly longer than previous laboratory studies, however, for certification purposes, it is argued that the dust lifting behaviour should be examined over the full timescales of an actual explosion scenario. These conditions can be accurately targeted using a shock tube at length scales of approximately 50 m. It is further proposed that useful test time can be maximised if an appropriately sized orifice plate is fitted to the tube exit, an arrangement which also offers practical advantages for testing. The paper demonstrates this operating capability with proof-of-concept experiments using The University of Queensland's X3 impulse facility.     

Nation‐building policies in Timor‐Leste: disaster risk reduction,including climate change adaptation

Few studies have explored the relationships between nation‐building, disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. Focusing on small island developing states, this paper examines nation‐building in Timor‐Leste, a small island developing state that recently achieved independence. Nation‐building in Timor‐Leste is explored in the context of disaster risk reduction, which necessarily includes climate change adaptation. The study presents a synopsis of Timor‐Leste's history and its nation‐building efforts as well as an overview of the state of knowledge of disaster risk reduction including climate change adaptation. It also offers an analysis of significant gaps and challenges in terms of vertical and horizontal governance, large donor presence, data availability and the integration of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation for nation‐building in Timor‐Leste. Relevant and applicable lessons are provided from other small island developing states to assist Timor‐Leste in identifying its own trajectory out of underdevelopment while it builds on existing strengths.     

基于皮电、心率和β波的指挥人员应急能力度量

指挥人员的应急能力是决定应急工作效率的重要因素,按照生理、心理性指标度量的指挥人员的应急能力,是选择指挥人员的重要依据之一。首先,分析指挥人员应急能力与情绪、生理性应激的关系。然后,利用E-prime软件,通过情绪Stroop效应范式诱发情绪,用生物反馈仪测量生理性应激状态下生理指标变化,研究高应急能力指挥人员应具备的能力条件。试验结果表明,高应急能力组人员应激前后皮电、心率、β波以及反应时间等指标变化率显著低于低应急能力组人员。试验结果与人的应急能力分类指标相符,能力较强的指挥人员的生理指标变化率较低,适合从事应急指挥方面的工作。     

Simulation analysis on structure safety of coal mine mobile refuge chamber under explosion load

In order to check structural strength of coal mine mobiles refuge chamber, and do security evaluation of the mobile refuge chamber, a refuge chamber model was established, then a finite element method was instituted for it to ensure the refuge chamber would not be severely damaged when gas or coal dust explosion suddenly happened. A triangle shock wave with 1.2 MPa over-pressure, 300 ms lasting time was settled. Explicit nonlinear dynamic analysis program was used to simulate response of the refuge chamber. The maximum stress was 244 MPa, located in central part of sides and tail end of the last capsule. The maximum displacement was 29.32 mm, located in central part of sides and tail end of the last capsule. The calculation indicated that the refuge chamber was not obviously damaged. It could reliable work to meet safety requirements. Compared with the reported experimental results, the simulation method was verified. Based on analysis, suggestions were put forward for further improving.     

Losers in the ‘Rock-Paper-Scissors’ game: The role of non-hierarchical competition and chaos as biodiversity sustaining agents in aquatic systems

Processes occurring within small areas (patch-scale) that influence species richness and spatial heterogeneity of larger areas (landscape-scale) have long been an interest of ecologists. This research focused on the role of patch-scale deterministic chaos arising in phytoplankton assemblages characteristic of “Rock-Paper-Scissors” population dynamics (i.e., competitively non-hierarchical). We employed a simple 2-patch model configuration with lateral mixing and through-flow, and tested the robustness of species richness at the scale of the landscape and spatial heterogeneity. Three different assemblages were used that in a dimensionless box model configuration exhibited chaotic behavior. Our results showed that when a spatial dimension was added to the model configuration, and when all species were shared between patches (i.e., no invading populations), chaos-induced species richness and spatial heterogeneity were quickly reduced with the onset of mixing. While assemblages in each patch were comprised of exactly the same species, they differed in their proportional population densities due to differing stages of succession and the incidence of alternative assemblage structures. Even at very low mixing rates (0.001 d⁻¹), which produced low passive migration rates (0.1% of the total biomass per day), the incidence of high richness and heterogeneity decreased by ∼80%. Interestingly, this sensitivity was not the same for the three assemblages tested. Declines in species richness and spatial heterogeneity associated with mixing were greater in assemblages comprised of competitively dissimilar species (based on the area occupied in the resource-tradeoff space defined by the R* model). The underlying mechanisms may involve the degree to which nutrient dynamics are altered with the arrival of immigrants. Our findings suggest that in partially to well-mixed aquatic systems, the roles of patch-scale non-hierarchical competition and chaos as factors maintaining species richness and spatial heterogeneity may be limited. However, in aquatic systems that experience periods of very low mixing, or even disconnection, non-hierarchical competition and chaos might indeed contribute significantly to biodiversity.     

白洋淀芦苇型水陆交错带水化学动态及其净化功能研究

于2007年3月-11月对富营养化湖泊一白洋淀进行了现场调查,分析了温度、溶解氧（DO）、叶绿素、总磷（TP）及其他水化学指标的动态变化规律,并讨论了它们之间的相互关系。结果表明：白洋淀芦苇（Phragmites australis var．baiyangdiansis）型水陆交错带对营养物质具有强烈的截留作用,可以达到净化白洋淀水体的效果。从水质指标的空间分布看,污染较重的府河河口区域其水体TP、化学需氧量（CODc,）含量明显高于污染较轻的湖泊中心区域,空间梯度上呈逐步递减趋势。根据水体盐度、总溶解性固体、TP及DO含量进行聚类分析,可以将采样点分为3类：Ⅰ区、污染较重河口区域;Ⅱ区、中间过渡缓冲区域;Ⅲ区、污染较轻中心区域。Ⅰ区其水体DO含量明显低于Ⅲ区,而水体盐度则明显高于Ⅲ区。通过调查发现：在8月份,白洋淀水体DO含量突然增加;相关分析表明：叶绿素含量与DO（P=0．046）及温度（P〈0．01）之间呈显著正相关关系。结合叶绿素等指标的动态变化规律,8月份左右可能是白洋淀藻类爆发的危险时期。