Sources of Deforestation in Tropical Developing Countries

/ Key causes of tropical deforestation are investigated using cross-sectional data for 90 developing countries for the period 1981-1990. Regression results reveal that deforestation is associated with both development and scarcity. Deforestation accelerates with expanding infrastructure, trade, debt, investment in the human capital base, and resource-based economic expansion. On the other hand, absolute and relative scarcities-manifested by growing population pressures, food and land shortages, fuelwood dependency, and inequalities in access to land-are also key factors explaining forest loss. Thus, results point to a fundamental environmental conundrum: Development is required if countries are to alleviate scarcity-driven forms of forest exploitation but is itself a major cause of deforestation. Can countries balance development goals with forest protection? Setting aside the issue of its practical realization, the paper concludes that forest sustainable development cannot be achieved by implementing simple technical improvements in land-use practices alone. Securing the foundations for the sustainability of the forest base will require that countries address the underlying social processes driving tropical forest loss as well.KEY WORDS: Tropical deforestation; Developing countries; Rural land-use practices; Development; Scarcity.     

我国钢铁工业废水治理及其发展趋势

我国水资源人均拥有量仅为世界人均拥有量的四分之一，而且降水在时空分布上很不均衡。这一现实，决定了节省水资源，保护水环境是我国一项长期的战略任务。文章概要地叙述了钢铁工业废水治理及其发展过程。作者认为，要从根本上解决钢铁工业废水对水环境的污染与破坏，必须采取综合防治措施，并把整套循环用水技术引入生产工艺过程，使废水与污染物都作为资源加以回收，并实现循环利用。上述过程的实质，是模拟大自然生物圈循环运行     

湖北省荒山荒地资源开发利用的原则和方向

荒山荒地是我省农业的重要后备，本文将主要探讨这部分资源的开发利用及其原则和方向，为发展农业寻求新的途径与措施。     

REGIONAL SCALE TREND MONITORING OF INDICATORS OF TROPHIC CONDITION OF LAKES1

ABSTRACT: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has proposed a sample survey design to answer questions about the ecological condition and trends in condition of U.S. ecological resources. To meet the objectives, the design relies on a probability sample of the resource population of interest (e.g., a random sample of lakes) each year on which measurements are made during an index period. Natural spatial and temporal variability and variability in the sampling process all affect the ability to describe the status of a population and the sensitivity for trend detection. We describe the important components of variance and estimate their magnitude for indicators of trophic condition of lakes to illustrate the process. We also describe models for trend detection and use them to demonstrate the sensitivity of the proposed design to detect trends. If the variance structure that develops during the probability surveys is like that synthesized from available databases and the literature, then the trends in common indicators of trophic condition of the specified magnitude should be detectable within about a decade for Secchi disk transparency (0.5–1 percentiyear) and total phosphorus (2–3 percent/year), but not for chlorophyll-a (> 3–4 percent/year), which will take longer.     

TESTING FOR TREND IN LAKE AND GROUND WATER QUALITY TIME SERIES1

ABSTRACT: The detection of gradual trends in water quality time series is increasing in importance as concern grows for diffuse sources of pollution such as acid precipitation and agricultural non-point sources. A significant body of literature has arisen dealing with trend detection in water quality variables that exhibit seasonal patterns. Much of the literature has dealt with seasonality of the first moment. However, little has been mentioned about seasonality in the variance, and its effect upon the performance of trend detection techniques. In this paper, eight methods of trend detection that arise from both the statistical literature as well as the water quality literature have been compared by means of a simulation study. Varying degrees of seasonality in both the variances and the means have been introduced into the artificial data, and the performances of these procedures are analyzed. Since the focus is on lake and ground water quality monitoring, quarterly sampling and short to moderate record lengths are examined.     

TECHNIQUES FOR DETECTING TRENDS IN LAKE WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: With the advent of standards and criteria for water quality variables, there has been an increasing concern about the changes of these variables over time. Thus, sound statistical methods for determining the presence or absence of trends are needed. A Trend Detection Method is presented that provides: 1) Hypothesis Formulation - statement of the problem to be tested, 2) Data Preparation - selection of water quality variable and data, 3) Data Analysis - exploratory data analysis techniques, and 4) Statistical Tests - tests for detecting trends. The method is utilized in a stepwise fashion and is presented in a nonstatistical manner to allow use by those not well versed in statistical theory. While the emphasis herein is on lakes, the method may be adopted easily to other water bodies.     

"九五"期间昆明市盘龙区酸雨状况分析

本文通过对盘龙区‘‘九五"期间降水监测结果进行评价,得出昆明市中心区酸雨的变化趋势,并加以分析,提出对策建议.     

生态系统健康评价的研究进展

回顾了生态系统健康的概念,阐述了水生态系统健康评价的三种指标体系:指示物种指标体系、结构功能指标体系、V-O-R指标体系.其中,结构功能指标体系从选取指标和指标分类两方面进行了方法归纳,分析了生态系统健康的几种评价方法,以及讨论了生态系统健康研究中存在的问题和发展趋势.     

兖州矿区采煤塌陷地状况与综合治理途径研究

通过对兖州矿区采煤塌陷地状况进行现状分析和趋势预测,结果表明,至2000年底,已累计塌陷土地5389.40hm2;预计到21世纪中叶,兖州、济东2个煤田最终将形成两个塌陷中心,面积达4.4×104hm2。这不仅使大面积农田被毁,造成生态失衡,而且给当地工农业生产以及社会和生态环境等方面带来一系列严重问题,应该彻底进行采煤塌陷地的综合治理。据此,根据矿区工农业持续协调发展的需要,从宏观和微观的角度,全方位提出了采煤塌陷地的综合治理途径。     

东北平原西部沙地的气候变异与土地荒漠化

东北平原西部沙地位于欧亚大陆中纬度巨型沙带的东部边缘 ,为我国荒漠化土地的东缘。随着经济的发展 ,生态环境遭到严重破坏 ,荒漠化景观日益明显 ,前景令人堪忧。气候因素是荒漠化发展的一个基本因素 ,东北平原西部沙地是我国北方气候条件最好的沙区 ,但目前对于区域荒漠化驱动因子的气候因素影响方面的研究未开展系统的工作。论文系统分析了东北平原西部沙地影响荒漠化的现代气候因素特点 ,探讨了在较好气候条件下气候变异、人类活动与荒漠化之间的关系 ,并根据气候发展趋势预测了未来在自然因素作用下沙地的可能发展趋势。