厄尔尼诺事件对黑龙江省春夏季降水的影响

利用实际监测资料,分析了40年中厄尔尼诺(Elnino)现象与黑龙江省降水距平之间的时空变化关系.结果发现,厄尔尼诺现象发生的当年及前一年,黑龙江省以春季4-6月份少雨干旱与夏秋季7,8月份(除厄尔尼诺年前一年的8月份外)多雨洪涝为主要气候特征;在厄尔尼诺年的下一年,春季4,6月份与秋季8,9月份一般具有少雨干旱的趋势.     

TEMPORAL CHANGES IN THE YADKIN RIVER FLOW VERSUS SUSPENDED SEDIMENT CONCENTRATION RELATIONSHIP1

ABSTRACT: Dynamic linear models (DLM) and seasonal trend decomposition (STL) using local regression, or LOESS, were used to analyze the 50‐year time series of suspended sediment concentrations for the Yadkin River, measured at the U.S. Geological Survey station at Yadkin College, North Carolina. A DLM with constant trend, seasonality, and a log₁₀ streamflow regressor provided the best model to predict monthly mean log₁₀ suspended sediment concentrations, based on the forecast log likelihood. Using DLM, there was evidence (odds approximately 69:1) that the log₁₀ streamflow versus log₁₀ suspended sediment concentration relationship has changed, with an approximate 20 percent increase in the log₁₀ streamflow coefficient over the period 1981 to 1996. However, sediment concentrations in the Yadkin River have decreased during the decade of the 1990s, which has been accompanied by a concomitant increase in streamflow variability. Although STL has been shown to be a versatile trend analysis technique, DLM is shown to be more suitable for discovery and inference of structural changes (trends) in the model coefficient describing the relationship between flow and sediment concentration.     

我国道路交通安全发展情景分析

以日本和美国为例 ,分析了发达国家道路交通事故高发期的发展历程 ,得出了道路交通事故的上升与国家经济发展和机动化增长有着直接关系的结论。笔者通过分析和预测我国经济和道路交通的发展情景发现 ,今后我国道路交通发展特征和日本道路交通高发期的情况十分类似。如果现有交通管理体制和技术措施没有大的变化 ,我国道路交通事故死亡人数到 2 0 2 0年可能会超过 2 3万人。为此 ,国家应尽快改善道路交通管理方面所存在体制上、行政上和技术上的不足 ,防止出现笔者所预测的道路交通事故极其严重的局面。     

Integrating fisheries into the national development plans of Small Island Developing States (SIDS): Ten years on from Barbados

The development and effective introduction of strategies designed to ensure the ecologically and economically sustainable utilization of coastal and marine resources is perhaps the major challenge for Small Island Developing States (SIDS). In response, the 1994 Barbados Programme of Action (BPoA) called upon the SIDS to implement appropriate coastal and marine strategies and, crucially, ensure that such strategies were integrated into sustainable national development plans (NDPs). This article examines the extent to which contemporary NDPs and donor support programmes have incorporated the fisheries sector — arguably the most important coastal/marine resource for many SIDS — into such documents. Applying an assessment methodology, originally developed to identify levels of environmental mainstreaming within World Bank country assistance strategies to NDPs and donor support programmes, we are able to identify those SIDS who have most effectively integrated the fisheries sector into such documents. Comparison with data indicating the importance of the sector to the national economy (in terms of generating foreign exchange, employment generation and/or supporting domestic protein consumption levels) enables us to pinpoint those countries with substantial fisheries sectors, but a correspondingly lower than expected degree of sectoral mainstreaming. We suggest that the January 2005 review of the BPoA offers an opportune moment for such countries to redress these omissions.     

Quantifying population declines based on presence‐only records for red‐list assessments

Accurate trend estimates are necessary for understanding which species are declining and which are most in need of conservation action. Imperfect species detection may result in unreliable trend estimates because this may lead to the overestimation of declines. Because many management decisions are based on population trend estimates, such biases could have severe consequences for conservation policy. We used an occupancy‐modeling framework to estimate detectability and calculate nationwide population trends for 14 Swiss amphibian species both accounting for and ignoring imperfect detection. Through the application of International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List criteria to the different trend estimates, we assessed whether ignoring imperfect detection could affect conservation policy. Imperfect detection occurred for all species and detection varied substantially among species, which led to the overestimation of population declines when detectability was ignored. Consequently, accounting for imperfect detection lowered the red‐list risk category for 5 of the 14 species assessed. We demonstrate that failing to consider species detectability can have serious consequences for species management and that occupancy modeling provides a flexible framework to account for observation bias and improve assessments of conservation status. A problem inherent to most historical records is that they contain presence‐only data from which only relative declines can be estimated. A move toward the routine recording of nonobservation and absence data is essential if conservation practitioners are to move beyond this toward accurate population trend estimation.     

四川省“三废”排放为代表的环境状况分析

对“三废”排放情况为代表的环境状况和变化趋势进行研究和阐述。简要地介绍了评价指标体系的选择原则,并利用2003-2010年四川省“三废”排放统计数据,建立了废水、废气和固废为要素的环境状况评价体系,绘制了环境状况变化趋势图。总体来看,以“三废”为代表的环境状况呈现变好的趋势。     

保山市隆阳区城区尘污染发展趋势分析

目前影响保山市隆阳区城区环境空气质量的主要污染物是PM10和降尘。用一维灰色系统分析法分析PM10和降尘污染的发展趋势,分别建立PM10和降尘在2008--2011年和2009--2012年两个时间段的预测模式GM（1,1）,和GM（1,1）2。不论是PM10还是降尘,都呈递增趋势,且GM（1,1）2的预测值和年增加量都远大于GM（1,1）。。GM（1,1）。与GM（1,1）：的行为轨迹相差很大,表明PM10和降尘的变化机制不稳定,污染日趋加重。应从源头控制尘的产生,并加强相关管理,遏制尘污染快速上升趋势,稳定和改善环境空气质量。     

2002～2012年乌江渡水库水质变化趋势分析

为了解乌江渡水库水质变化趋势,对2002～2010年乌江渡水库水质监测结果进行了分析。采用综合营养状态指数法、污染分担率法、秩相关系数法,对水库富营养化等状况进行评价。结果表明,近年来,乌江渡水库总磷和总氮污染分担率之和达78%,是水库主要污染物,水库水质从大岭岗、偏岩河口到大坝,富营养程度逐渐加重;水库中总氮、氨氮、粪大肠菌群和五日生化需氧量也均呈显著上升趋势。建议加大乌江渡水库水质中总磷和总氮等的监测力度,加强防护与控制管理。     

中国环境风险现状及发展趋势分析

基于国内2000-2009年以来环境污染事故统计资料,深入分析了中国现阶段环境风险类型、事故高发区域、事故损失、环境风险事故诱因等特征,并对其环境风险演变趋势进行了判断。新时期中国经济增长方式处于转变阶段,以布局型环境隐患和结构型环境风险为首要威胁,风险类型更加复杂化,事故影响范围进一步扩大,由于居民消费转型与科技发展带来的新型环境风险更是不可预知,环境风险压力进一步增大。     

“十一五”期间甘南县环境噪声变化及防治对策

以甘南县环境监测站"十一五"期间环境噪声监测结果为依据,对县域的环境噪声进行分析,并提出了防治对策。