"南海贻贝观察":广东沿海牡蛎体中Zn含量水平及其变化趋势

为了了解广东沿海重要养殖水域Zn含量水平变化趋势,1989～1997年间实施"南海贻贝观察"计划对广东12个地点牡蛎体的Zn含量进行了连续监测.广东沿海牡蛎体Zn含量范围为50.4×10-6～768×10-6,总平均值为245×10-6,总体上属清洁～微污染水平.牡蛎体Zn含量的海域分布格局呈珠江口海区＞粤东海区≥粤西海区.1989～1991年,广东沿海牡蛎体Zn含量呈上升趋势,此后略微下降,1994～1997年间牡蛎体Zn含量虽有波动,但年际间没有明显差异.     

湖北省60年代以来气温日较差的变化趋势

利用湖北省７２站１９６１￣１９９５年逐月最高、最低气温资料,计算并详细分析了湖北省年、四季及逐月气温日较差的线性变化趋势。结果表明：（１）年最低气温呈明显上升趋势,而最高气温为下降趋势,因此气温日较差呈显著减少趋势。（２）就四季来看,最高气温在春、夏、冬季均呈下降趋势,但只有夏季的下降趋势是显著的,秋季呈弱上升趋势;最低气温在四季均呈上升趋势,但只有冬季的上升趋势是显著的;气温日较差在冬季与夏季均     

长江中游洪涝灾害的发展趋势与跨流域治理的必要性

回顾了近五百年来长江中游洪涝灾害发生的历史,运用历史外推原理对洪灾的发展趋势进行了预测,认为在未来的十几年内,长江中游洪灾的发展态势不容乐观。在防御对策上,中央“三十二字”指导原则提出后,人们普遍把眼光投向流域内生态环境的治理。从历史看,长江中游自古以来就是受洪患严重威胁的地区,近代流域内生态环境的破坏在一定程度上人为地加剧了这一威胁,流域内生态环境的治理十分重要。但导致长江中游洪灾的根本 原因还     

A Hydrologic Data Screening Procedure for Exploring Monotonic Trends and Shifts in Rainfall and Runoff Patterns

A thorough understanding of past and present hydrologic responses to changes in precipitation patterns is crucial for predicting future conditions. The main objectives of this study were to determine temporal changes in rainfall‐runoff relationship and to identify significant trends and abrupt shifts in rainfall and runoff time series. Ninety‐year rainfall and runoff time series datasets from the Gasconade and Meramec watersheds in east‐central Missouri were used to develop data screening procedure to assess changes in the rainfall and runoff temporal patterns. A statistically significant change in mean and variance was detected in 1980 in the rainfall and runoff time series within both watersheds. In addition, both the rainfall and runoff time series indicated the presence of nonstationary attributes such as statistically significant monotonic trends and/or change in mean and variance, which should be taken into consideration when using the time series to predict future scenarios. The annual peak runoff and the annual low flow in the Meramec watershed showed significant temporal changes compared to that in the Gasconade watershed. Water loss in both watersheds was found to be significantly increasing which is potentially due to the increase in groundwater pumping for water supply purposes.     

基于均生函数的大坝水位安全预测

大坝水位变化特别是汛期水位的剧烈变化不仅会对大坝的安全运营造成很大影响,甚至会威胁到下游和周边居民的生命财产安全,因此必须对大坝的水位进行安全监测。由于大坝的水位受天气和降水的影响明显,具有一定的周期性,因此,利用均生函数周期性记忆的特点,建立时间序列与均生函数之间的回归方程,构造预报模型的方法,能准确预测出水位的变化趋势,对一些变化很大的趋势甚至也能准确预测。该方法在大坝安全预测中的应用不仅能给出先导性信息,也为大坝的安全预测工作提供一种新方法。     

基于AI指数的新疆干湿时空变化及其影响因素分析

论文基于新疆53个气象站点1961-2013年逐日气温、降水、风速、日照时数、相对湿度、大气环流指数和太阳黑子数据,应用Penman-Monteith模型、ArcGIS反距离加权插值、Mann-Kendall（M-K）检验、Morlet小波和主成分分析方法,分析其降水量、潜在蒸散量和AI指数时空变化及影响因素。结果表明：近53 a来,新疆降水量呈上升趋势,潜在蒸散量在波动中呈下降趋势,倾向率分别为8.81 mm/10 a和-28.73 mm/10 a,AI指数在波动中呈下降趋势,倾向率为 -0.05/10 a,多年平均值为0.5,表明新疆气候有变湿趋势。从年内分布看,降水量和潜在蒸散量呈单峰型分布,峰值分别出现在7月和8月,分别为24.58和137.12 mm;AI指数最大值滞后于降水量（7月）和潜在蒸散量（8月）,出现在9月,为0.9,最小值出现在1月,为0.46。新疆潜在蒸散量空间分布为南疆大于北疆,东部大于西部;降水量北疆大于南疆;AI指数的空间分布与降水量相反,总体表现为南疆大于北疆,盆地大于山区,M-K趋势介于0~-0.02/a之间,且北疆AI指数减小趋势较南疆更显著,与北疆比南疆更湿润的事实相符。新疆降水量和潜在蒸散量分别在1987和1981年发生突变,AI指数在1981和1984年存在两个明显的突变点。Morlet小波及其功率谱分析表明,降水量存在6.49、5.71和4.35 a（p≤0.05）的周期,蒸散量存在21.37 a（p≤0.2）的周期,AI指数存在6.62、3.45 a（p≤0.1）的周期,表明AI指数可能受大气环流和厄尔尼诺的影响。主成分分析表明,AI指数与气温呈正相关,与降水量呈负相关,且南疆比北疆对降水更敏感。此外,AI指数与维尔霍扬斯克-奥伊米亚康（WYMI）、ENSO关系密切,相关系数分别为0.46（p≤0.05）和-0.34（p≤0.05）。     

Space view of the decadal variation for typical air pollutants in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region in China

The Pearl River Delta (PRD) is one of the most industrialized, urbanized and populated regions in China, and thus has been long suffering from severe air pollutions. Space data provide a unique perspective for investigating the atmospheric environment at a regional scale. By utilizing multiple satellite retrievals from 2005 to 2013, this study presented, for the first time, the spatial patterns and temporal trends of typical air pollutants over PRD and its vicinity. As viewed from space, aerosol optical depth (AOD), NO₂ and SO₂ all had their higher values at the central part of PRD, and showed clear descending gradients as moving to the outskirt of this region. As to the inter-annual variation, all these pollutants had decreasing trends in PRD during the study period, which generally agreed with the relevant in situ measurements. However, the satellite retrievals differed from ground measurements when addressing NO₂ and SO₂ in the vicinity of PRD. This work also provides the inter-comparison among PRD and three other metropolitan clusters in China: PRD had relatively high AOD, moderate NO₂ and low SO₂ levels, and it was the only region achieving the effective reduction of NO₂ and SO₂ during last decade. Unlike the previous three pollutants, HCHO observed by satellite showed very special patterns: it had a relatively homogeneous spatial distribution over both of PRD and its vicinity, and presented an opposite increasing trend from 2005 to 2010. Moreover, PRD had the highest HCHO level among all the metropolitan clusters, hinting a considerable contribution of biogenic origins of HCHO in PRD.

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流域管理的形成、特征及发展趋势

流域管理是一门新兴学科,是以流域为尺度,统筹流域资源管理、保护和利用的管理体系,也是为实现科学、可持续发展和生态文明建设而发展出的管理科学的研究方向. 深入剖析了流域管理概念的形成与发展,总结了水资源统一管理、水质目标控制管理和综合统一管理3种管理模式的管理目标、特点和不足,并指出现代流域管理应形成流域-区域-控制单元-污染源多层次一体化的污染控制目标体系;论述了我国流域管理的实践与发展过程,结合辽河流域管理实践,阐述了未来流域管理呈现管理手段的智能化、管理方式的生态化、管理机制的一体化的发展趋势.      

Analysis of the ph in Europe during the period 1986–1997

The annual averages (1986–1997) of pH are analysed for the most important European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme stations in Europe. The first objective is to discover the different temporal patterns and trends for the pH. To do this, a cluster analysis is developed. The trends are analysed by linear regression for the annual averages. In general, the pH shows an increasing trend significant at 0.05 level and the annual change ranging from +0.01 to +0.05 pH‐units per year for the different clusters obtained. The second objective is to examine the spatial variability of pH in precipitation through the use of principal component analysis. Six statistically significant modes of variability are obtained for the pH which represent the 84.5% of the total variance.     

奎屯市空气质量变化趋势及改善途径分析

通过对奎屯市环境空气质量监测数据的分析,显示出大气污染三项因子随年、季变化的趋势(其中20％的天数TSP超标)。结合当地的能源结构、气候特征、城市环境综合发展水平,探讨了改善奎屯市空气质量变化趋势的途径,为防治和减轻奎屯市的空气污染提供科学依据。