承德市旅游环境承载力分析

我国旅游需求快速膨胀,游客数量急剧增加,但配套设施及管理、服务水平相对落后,旅游环境超负荷承载。选择承德市11个最具吸引力的景区,综合考虑资源、环境和心理3个维度,定量分析各承载力分量,在此基础上根据"木桶原理"确定承德市旅游环境承载力。研究表明:承德市全年的旅游环境承载力约为2 993万人,随着游客人数逐年递增,旅游环境承载力已接近饱和。     

海河流域河流空间分布特征及演变趋势

海河流域涵盖我国"京津冀"经济圈,河流对流域内人类生存和经济发展具有重要支撑作用,研究河流空间分布及演变趋势对于合理利用河流水资源、保护河流生态和实现经济可持续发展具有重要意义.本文运用遥感资料的GIS分析方法,对海河流域的河流地貌、水系结构、河流曲率和河网密度、闸坝等指标进行分析,发现:1海河流域河流地貌划分为上游山区段、中部平原段和下游滨海段,3个区段水系形状依次为树枝状(受人为干扰小),编织状(中度人为干扰),稀疏编织状(人为干扰强烈);2流域水库和水闸修建阻断河流纵向连续性,五大水系(滦河、北三河、永定河、大清河、子牙河)连续性指标值低于5;320世纪60年代—80年代—2000年,流域河流平均曲率不断减小,河网密度呈现不定向波动,反映出人为控制对河道形态改变程度大.今后应减少人类活动对河流自然属性的改变,河流治理和修复过程中应充分考虑保护和改造河流地貌、水系结构、河流曲率和河网密度.     

Exploration and development of Iran's oilfields through buyback

The use of buyback for the development of oil and gas fields is an established mechanism in Iran. Current legislation authorizes the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) to use buyback for both exploration and development. The buyback scheme can be defined as a risk service contract, under which the contractor is paid back by being allocated a portion of oil/gas produced as a result of providing services. Buyback is based upon a defined scope of work, a capital cost ceiling, a fixed remuneration fee and a defined cost recovery period. When buyback is used for both exploration and development, the specifications of the field to be developed are unknown at the time of contracting and therefore agreement on the scope of work, duration of development operations, ceiling for capital costs, fixed remuneration fee, and duration of cost recovery need to be deferred to the time when a commercial field is discovered. This article first outlines the introduction of buyback for development of Iran's oil and gas fields. It then examines the main features of the mechanism. Third, the use of buyback for both exploration and development is explored and related challenges discussed. Finally, the article reviews the new buyback model proposed by NIOC to address these challenges.     

上海地区主要农作物气象灾害评估预测警示系统的研究

主要农作物气象灾害评估预测警示系统网页共有二部分内容：历年灾害动态对比和早涝趋势预测与警示。历年灾害动态对比是对比1991年以后上海地区主要表l作物气象灾害的变化情况。早涝趋势预测是在降水趋势预测基础上，对未来月或农时段降水量进行预测。     

Climatology,Trend Analysis and Prediction of Sandstorms and their Associated Dustfall in China

Based on statistical data about Sand and Dust Storms (SDS) and their associated dustfall, features of temporal and spatialdistribution were studied first in this article. SDS and associateddustfalls occurred most often in northern China, especiallynorthwestern China. However, in the last two years, they have atendency to occur on the central and western parts of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. As a result, Beijing is now among the impact areas, and the Chinese government is paying greaterattention to the matter. The changing trends of SDS and associated dustfalls were subsequently analyzed. Occurrences were seen to be decreasing with the feature of fluctuation duringthe period of 1954–2001, but they have slightly increased since 2000. Also, climate factors related to SDS and associated dustfalls were discussed. Finally, it was recommended that methods to predict SDS in China be further studied in the future.     

我国环境安全的主要问题与安全战略

耕地资源与粮食安全、水资源安全、石油安全、生态安全等已成为建立全球视角“泛疆城”的大安全观,实施可持续发展安全战略是解决中国生态环境安全问题的基础和保证。     

番禺区可持续发展评价及其对策研究

本文通过建立番禺区可持续发展评价指标体系,运用主成份分析和独立性分析方法筛选出评价指标,确定各项指标的权重后,进行可持续发展评价.评价表明番禺区属平稳型可持续发展.通过辨析,找出制约地区发展的限制因子,提出可持续发展的对策.     

LONG TERM TRENDS OF ANNUAL AND MONTHLY PRECIPITATION IN JAPAN1

ABSTRACT: Long term trends in Japan's annual and monthly precipitation are investigated in this study. The statistical significance of a trend at a study site is assessed by the Mann‐Kendall (MK) test, and field significance of trends in climatic Regions II, III, and IV is evaluated using the bootstrap test preserving cross correlation. The practical significance of a trend is judged by a percentage change of the sample mean over an observation period. The field significance assessment demonstrates that annual precipitation in Region II did not show any significant change, but regional precipitation shifts occurred in different months. Precipitation significantly increased by 12.2 percent in May, while it significantly decreased by 12.0, 10.5, 15.6, and 19.7 percent, respectively, in April, September, October, and December. In Region III, annual precipitation declined by 11.8 percent, and monthly precipitation significantly decreased from September through January and in April, with the greatest decrease (38.2 percent) in December. In Region IV, significant reductions occurred in both annual precipitation (by 15.6 percent) and monthly precipitation from September through February and in June and July, with the worst reduction (44.7 percent) in December.     

Water-Quality Monitoring and Biological Integrity Assessment in the Indian River Lagoon, Florida: Status, Trends, and Loadings (1988–1994)

a production in the central, south central, and the south segments of the lagoon. In a system as large and complex as the lagoon, N and P limitations are potentially subject to significant spatial and temporal variability. Total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TN) was higher in the north (1.25 mg/liter) and lower in the south (0.89 mg/liter). The reverse pattern was observed for total P (TP), i.e., lowest in the north (0.03 mg/liter) and highest at the south (0.14 mg/liter) ends of the IRL. This increased P concentration in the SIRL appears to have a significantly large effect on chlorophyll a production compared with the other segments, as indicated by stepwise regression statistics. This relationship can be expressed as follows: South IRL [chlorophyll a] =−8.52 + 162.41 [orthophosphate] + 7.86 [total nitrogen] + 0.38 [turbidity]; R ²= 0.98**.     

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF DEVELOPMENT ON FLOW CHARACTERISTICS OF TWO NEW JERSEY STREAMS1

ABSTRACT: Parts of the Raritan River basin in central New Jersey have undergone increasing development over the last several decades. The increasing population relies on the region's ground water and surface water sources for its residential, commercial, and industrial water supply. Urbanization, regionalized wastewater-treatment facilities, stream channel alterations, and interbasin transfers of water can all affect water availability. This pilot study was conducted to determine whether significant trends exist in the base-flow and overland-runoff characteristics of streams in two subbasins with different percentages of urban/built-up land (Anderson et at., 1976). Changes in flow characteristics that could indicate future reductions in safe water yield of the Raritan River basin were examined. Flow and flow variability of the steams draining these two subbasins have increased over time. Many of the flow measures studied experienced pronounced trend shifts about 1960. The cause of these changes cannot be readily determined from the data, nor is it clear whether the increased flow variability lies outside the natural range of flow variability of the streams draining the subbasins.