An individual-based stochastic hazard model of eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus) migration with spatially and temporally varying fishing effort

This paper describes an individual-based stochastic model of eastern king prawn migration along the eastern Australian coast. Migration is treated as one-dimensional diffusion with drift. Capture of a prawn is seen as a failure event driven by movement through a spatially and temporally variable fishing mortality hazard. This hazard is combined with a uniform natural mortality hazard. We use a Monte Carlo method to estimate parameters by comparing expected numbers of tag-returns predicted from the model with previously published tag-release data. As the previous study used a discrete compartmental model, with compartments corresponding to zones of constant fishing effort, we used the same zones and fishing effort in our comparison. The marginal distribution of yield in each zone per single recruit is determined, providing more information compared with the deterministic approach to yield-per-recruit. Using our model we also derive the constant fishing mortality rate equivalent to a spatially variable fishing mortality rate in its impact on the proportion of prawns surviving the migration to reach spawning grounds. Determination of this proportion could contribute significantly to a sustainability assessment of the fishery. It is demonstrated using the AIC that better fits to the data of the previous study and greater parsimony are obtained using our model than were found in the deterministic compartmental analysis of that study. This improvement results from the ability of our model to account separately for average speed of movement and average dispersal rate, whereas in the previous deterministic compartmental model, movement is governed by just one parameter. Our individual-based model includes a parameter that explicitly accounts for dispersal of prawns in migration, so it can distinguish between speed effects and dispersal effects in the data. It also models both types of mortality as processes distinct from those of movement. This enables it to better separate movement and mortality effects compared to the compartmental approach, in which movement and mortality are treated as similar departure processes from a compartment. This separation reduces confounding of movement and mortality effects when parameters are estimated.     

Atmospheric Volatilization and Distribution of (Z)- and (E)-1,3-Dichloropropene in Field Beds with and without Plastic Covers

Abstract

The fumigant 1,3-dichloropropene (1,3-D) is considered to be a potential replacement for methyl bromide when methyl bromide is phased out in 2005. This study on surface emissions and subsurface diffusion of 1,3-D in a Florida sandy soil was conducted in field beds with or without plastic covers. After injection of the commercial fumigant Telone II by conventional chisels to field beds at 30 cm depth which were covered with polyethylene film (PE), virtually impermeable film, or no cover (bare), (Z)- and (E)-1,3-D rapidly diffused upward. Twenty hours after injection, majority of (Z)- and (E)-1,3-D had moved upward from 30 cm depth to the layer of 5–20 cm depth. Downward movement of the two isomers in the beds with or without a plastic cover was not significant. (Z)-1,3-D diffused more rapidly than (E)-1,3-D. Virtually impermeable films (VIF) had a good capacity to retain (Z)- and (E)-1,3-D in soil pore air space. Vapor concentrations of the two isomers in the shallow subsurface of the field bed covered with VIF were greater than that in the two beds covered with polyethylene film (PE) or no cover (bare). In addition, VIF cover provided more uniform distribution of (Z)- and (E)-1,3-D in shallow subsurface than PE cover or no cover. Virtually impermeable film also had a better capability to retard surface emissions of the two isomers from soil in field beds than PE cover or no cover.     

Laboratory studies of the diffusive transport of Cs and Co through potential waste repository soils

Tests using reconstituted samples have been performed to assess the diffusive transport of ¹³⁷Cs and ⁶⁰Co through natural regolith materials from a region in South Australia being considered for a radioactive waste repository. A double diffusion cell apparatus made of polycarbonate resin was developed to estimate the effective diffusion (D_e) and sorption coefficients (K_d) that allowed large withdrawals from the source and collector cells and has enabled tests with low concentrations of radioactivity. An alternative to porous stainless steel filter plates has also been used to reduce uncertainty in test interpretation. Analysis of the transient data used a staged method of the Laplace transform to take into consideration the volume of the samples withdrawn from the apparatus during testing. At test completion samples were cut into slices and analysed for radionuclide concentration. Data obtained from the sliced samples confirmed that both numerical and experimental data produced acceptable mass balance. The D_e values obtained in this study were of the order of 10⁻⁶ cm² s⁻¹ for both species, higher than previously published data. The K_d values from the diffusion and batch sorption tests were in reasonable agreement for ¹³⁷Cs, but an order of magnitude different for ⁶⁰Co. The sorption of the latter radionuclide was strongly pH dependent, and this dependency during diffusion tests would benefit from further investigation.     

An analytical solution to contaminant diffusion in semi-infinite clayey soils with piecewise linear adsorption

The adsorption of contaminants onto soil particles typically is nonlinear if the contaminant concentration is sufficiently high. A simplified piecewise linear adsorption isotherm consistent with experimental results is proposed as an approximation for nonlinear adsorption behavior. This approximation allows for the use of analytical solution to model solute diffusion of contaminants that exhibit nonlinear adsorption. A moving boundary is introduced to represent significant changes in the retardation factor of clay with an increase in solute concentration. The proposed analytical solutions were validated using experimental data presented in the literature. There is negligible difference between the results obtained by the proposed analytical solution and those obtained by the linear model when C_m/C₀ reached 0.5. The results also show that the model based on linear adsorption using the initial secant of the Freundlich isotherm leads to significantly lower estimated breakthrough time for the contaminant of interest than that obtained using the proposed model. The earlier breakthrough is due to an under-estimation of the amount of adsorption. The proposed method is relatively simple to apply and can be used for evaluating experimental results and verifying more complex numerical models.     

Uptake of PAHs into polyoxymethylene and application to oil-soot (lampblack)-impacted soil samples

Polyoxymethylene (POM) is a polymeric material used increasingly in passive sampling of hydrophobic organic contaminants such as PAHs and PCBs in soils and sediments. In this study, we examined the sorption behavior of 12 PAH compounds to POM and observed linear isotherms spanning two orders of magnitude of aqueous concentrations. Uptake kinetic studies performed in batch systems for up to 54 d with two different volume ratios of POM-to-aqueous phase were evaluated with coupled diffusion and mass transfer models to simulate the movement of PAHs during the uptake process and to assess the physicochemical properties and experimental conditions that control uptake rates. Diffusion coefficients of PAHs in POM were estimated to be well correlated with diffusants' molecular weights as D(POM) proportional, variant(MW)(-3), descending from 2.3 x 10(-10) cm(2) s(-1) for naphthalene to 7.0 x 10(-11) cm(2) s(-1) for pyrene. The uptake rates for PAHs with log K(ow)<5.8 were controlled by the POM phase and the hydrophobicity of PAH compounds. For more hydrophobic PAH compounds, the aqueous boundary layer played an increasingly important role in determining the overall mass transfer rate. The POM partitioning technique was demonstrated to agree well with two other procedures for measuring PAH soil-water distribution coefficients in oil-soot (lampblack) containing soil samples.     

一个实用的高速公路大气扩散模式

在高斯线源扩散模式的基础上，建立了一个适合高速公路大气污染源扩散特点的模式，并以沈阳环城高速公路环境影响评价中的应用为例，说明该模式的实用性和优越性．在建立该模式的过程中，应用了国外关于公路扩散试验的成果来确定和修正模式中的扩散参数．     

公路汽车尾气扩散模式研究

通过实测资料和理论计算的对比分析，认为在有风条件下对源参数作适当修正后，可以利用线源模式预测公路汽车尾气扩散浓度分布，同时提出了适合高速公路汽车尾气扩散浓度预测的源参数修正方法，可供高速公路环境影响评价时参考。     

Physicians' acceptability of termination of pregnancy after prenatal diagnosis in southern france

The acceptability of prenatal diagnosis for Down's syndrome has been extensively studied over the last 15 years but that of other pathologies remains largely unexplored. The main goals of this study were to approach physicians' opinions on six reasons for termination of pregnancy showing different deficiencies, i.e., Down's, Turner and Klinefelter syndromes, cystic fibrosis, spina bifida, and haemophilia, and to identify the origins of reserves. The influence of sociodemographic and professional characteristics of physicians on their opinions and attitudes during the consultation were studied. The data presented are based on information gathered in 1985 by a mailed questionnaire answered by 853 general practitioners, gynaecologists, obstetricians, and pediatricians in the Marseilles Genetic Centre's region. Stepwise logistic regression was used for the multivariate analysis. The results showed that 78 per cent of those answering favour termination of pregnancy for Down's syndrome and that only moral reticences were mentioned by the physicians opposed. Conversely, for haemophilia, only 21 per cent of the physicians considered this indication justified; those opposed were for the most part concerned that severity of illness did not justify termination of pregnancy. Overall, 33 per cent of physicians would voice their personal opinion on termination of pregnancy if so requested by consultees. Results on the influence of age and specialty evidenced their role on physicians' opinions. Indeed, 30 per cent of physicians opposed to pregnancy termination for one of the six fetal anomalies retained herein would modify their positions if diagnosis were possible in the first trimester of pregnancy.     

An analytical model for the interpretation of pulse injection experiments performed for testing the spatial variability of clay formations

This paper presents an analytical model to describe pulse injection experiments. This model solves the advection-diffusion equation while taking into account back diffusion from the clay core to the inlet and from the outlet to the clay core. In most analytical models, back diffusion is neglected. For sufficiently high Péclet numbers, this is a good approximation. However, in experiments where the Péclet number is low, back diffusion is important and must be taken into account. An additional advantage of the present model is that both concentration and flux are conserved at the inlet and at the outlet of the clay core. This model is used to fit pulse injection experiments with iodide and tritiated water (HTO) in clay cores. The (new) model is required for fitting the experimental results since in clay layers advection is very slow leading to a low Péclet number. The experiments are performed on clay cores taken from different depths from the Boom Clay and the Ypres Clay layer under the site of the nuclear power plant of Doel (Belgium). The quality of all fits is excellent and the obtained parameter values are coherent. For HTO, the fitted value for the diffusion accessible porosity is consistent with measurements of the water content in Ypres Clay cores. In both types of clays, the apparent diffusion coefficient at zero flow is between 10(-10) and 2 x 10(-10) m(2)/s for iodide and between 2 x 10(-10) and 3 x 10(-10) m(2)/s for HTO. The dispersion length is in the order of 10(-3) m. The average value for the diffusion accessible porosity is between 0.35 and 0.4 for HTO and between 0.2 and 0.25 for iodide.