纸喷雾离子源质谱对易燃液体的快速分析方法研究

为提高对易燃液体的快速检测分析能力,在经典纸喷雾质谱的基础上,发展建立了三种新型的基于纸喷雾离子化的质谱方法,分别为基于针尖辅助纸喷雾质谱、基于导电纸辅助纸喷雾质谱、基于金属网辅助纸喷雾质谱。结果显示,在优化的实验条件下,可以迅速检测到样品中的目标化合物质子化峰。对于汽油样品,目标化合物主要是烷基吡啶类同系物;对于柴油样品,目标化合物主要是几种系列的含氮杂环芳香族化合物的同系物。对汽油和柴油样品的检测浓度均能达到5×103 ppm。这三种敞开式离子源质谱方法在对易燃液体的分析中,具有选择性好、无需样品前处理、分析迅速的特点。     

可控震源振动器系统不确定性分析

为了解决可控震源施工过程中振动器系统的安全性问题,采用故障树法建立仿真 模型。通过失效分析得出各故障单元的失效模式及单元间分布规律,计算出振动器系统 的可靠度。开展对该系统敏感性的不确定性分析,得出影响振动器系统可靠性的关键因 素为重锤上部密封失效。采用有限元法对其应力场进行模拟仿真。结果表明:随着工作 频率的升高,O形圈应力波动越大,密封越容易失效。Von Mises应力随压缩率的增大先 减小后增大,随槽口半径的增大而增大;接触应力在一定范围内随压缩率及槽口半径的 增大而增大。为振动器的结构优化与可靠性设计提供理论依据,并为油气资源勘探开发 的安全作业提供工程应用指导。     

直井油管柱扶正器间距设计研究

为了避免生产过程中直井的油管柱受井底的轴向载荷失稳变形从而导致油管柱与井筒发生磨损,防止油管柱发生失稳变形引发事故,安装扶正器是有效的措施。针对扶正器的安装主要依靠经验,缺乏理论分析指导,既容易导致事故发生又增加成本的问题,基于封隔器—油管柱的实际受力及变形分析,建立了油管柱失稳力学模型,推导了直井中相邻扶正器临界失稳长度的计算公式,得出了扶正器的合理间距,并利用MATLAB进行实例的分析计算。结果表明:从中和点到井底,扶正器的布置间距呈现减小趋势;井口油压的降低导致油管柱临界失稳长度变小,使得扶正器的布置间距更加密集。该间距设计对油管柱扶正器的现场布置有实际的指导意义。     

Supercritical Fluid Extraction for Forensic Analysis of Hydrocarbons in Soil

Supercritical fluid extraction (SFE) was investigated to evaluate its potential for obtaining high quality chromatographic fingerprints from soils encountered in environmental investigations. While the volatile and semivolatile fractions of light nonaqueous phase liquid (LNAPL) samples can be “fingerprinted” in a single chromatographic run, it is commonly not possible to obtain samples of LNAPL in the locations of interest. For this and other reasons, it was desirable to develop this method (SFE) of soil extraction, which allows chromatographic fingerprinting of the same quality routinely obtained with LNAPL so that environmental forensic investigations could be extended to areas beyond those containing LNAPL in monitoring wells. In this study, SFE was compared to conventional dichloromethane extraction. Both artificially spiked soil and soil from petroleum release sites were tested. Since water can be a problem when using the SFE method, particular attention was given to handling soils with high moisture contents. The SFE extracts showed excellent retention of low molecular components, including pentanes. Gas chromatography of SFE extracts yielded molecular distributions that showed no significant bias toward either low or high molecular weight components. These results show that SFE can be used to obtain an unbiased, single-run chromatographic “fingerprint” of both volatile and semivolatile hydrocarbons in contaminated soil samples.     

An integrated EDIB model for probabilistic risk analysis of natural gas pipeline leakage accidents

Natural gas pipeline construction is developing rapidly worldwide to meet the needs of international and domestic energy transportation. Meanwhile, leakage accidents occur to natural gas pipelines frequently due to mechanical failure, personal operation errors, etc., and induce huge economic property loss, environmental damages, and even casualties. However, few models have been developed to describe the evolution process of natural gas pipeline leakage accidents (NGPLA) and assess their corresponding consequences and influencing factors quantitatively. Therefore, this study aims to propose a comprehensive risk analysis model, named EDIB (ET-DEMATEL-ISM-BN) model, which can be employed to analyze the accident evolution process of NGPLA and conduct probabilistic risk assessments of NGPLA with the consideration of multiple influencing factors. In the proposed integrated model, event tree analysis (ET) is employed to analyze the evolution process of NGPLA before the influencing factors of accident evolution can be identified with the help of accident reports. Then, the combination of DEMATEL (Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) and ISM (Interpretative Structural Modeling) is used to determine the relationship among accident evolution events of NGPLA and obtain a hierarchical network, which can be employed to support the construction of a Bayesian network (BN) model. The prior conditional probabilities of the BN model were determined based on the data analysis of 773 accident reports or expert judgment with the help of the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Finally, the developed BN model was used to conduct accident evolution scenario analysis and influencing factor sensitivity analysis with respect to secondary accidents (fire, vapor cloud explosion, and asphyxia or poisoning). The results show that ignition is the most critical influencing factor leading to secondary accidents. The occurrence time and occurrence location of NGPLA mainly affect the efficiency of emergency response and further influence the accident consequence. Meanwhile, the weight ranking of economic loss, environmental influence, and casualties on social influence is determined with respect to NGPLAs.     

Dynamic-risk-informed safety barrier management: An application to cost-effective barrier optimization based on data from multiple sources

An integrated approach for performance assessment and management of safety barriers in a systemic manner is needed concerning the prevention and mitigation of major accidents in chemical process industries. Particularly, the effects of safety barriers on system risk reduction should be assessed in a dynamic manner to support the decision-making on safety barrier establishments and improvements. A simulation approach, named Simulink-based Safety Barrier Modeling (SSBM), is proposed in this paper to conduct dynamic risk assessment of chemical facilities with the consideration of the degradation of safety barriers. The main functional features of the SSBM include i) the basic model structures of SSBM can be determined based on bow-tie diagrams, ii) multiple data (periodic proof test data, continuous condition-monitoring data, and accident precursor data) may be combined to update barrier failure probabilities and initiating event probabilities, iii) SSBM is able to handle uncertainty propagation in probabilistic risk assessment by using Monte Carlo simulations, and iv) cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and optimization algorithms are integrated to support the decision-making on safety barrier establishments and improvements. An illustrative case study is demonstrated to show the procedures of applying the SSBM on dynamic risk-informed safety barrier management and validate the feasibility of implementing the SSBM for cost-effective safety barrier optimization.     

爆炸超压场景下危化品社会风险对允许规划人口密度的影响分析*

为研究危化品重大危险源基于社会风险基准的规划管控影响,采用我国标准规定的定量风险评价方法,TNT当量炸药简化方法,针对最大TNT当量炸药、事故发生总累计频率、人口密度分布控制参数等不同工况条件,对比分析国土开发强度的允许人口密度受社会风险约束影响的变化规律。研究结果表明:人口密度指数分布控制参数Nk与Nb的允许取值随最大TNT当量炸药和事故发生总累计频率降低而提高;确定工况下,允许总人口规模受最大TNT当量炸药影响很小;在最大TNT当量炸药大于100 t或事故发生总累计频率小于1×10-8次/a时可按最大事故场景进行规划控制分析。     

深埋水平岩层隧道开挖稳定性分析及控制*

针对深埋高地应力水平岩层掌子面开挖稳定性及支护结构失效问题,以大峡谷隧道为工程背景,通过现场测试、室内试验、数值模拟等方法,探究深埋高地应力水平岩层失稳机理及控制措施。研究结果表明:坚硬岩体被节理面切割后,在高地应力作用下容易发生挤压破碎,破碎岩体遇水发生软化,导致掌子面发生大范围塌方,初支和超前支护失效;隧道开挖后岩层发生不均匀沉降,浅部岩层最先发生弯折破坏,层内块体错动滑移,继而向上方岩层发展,并伴随层间分离和层内裂隙发育,最终形成宏观破裂面;提出的台阶法、2 m开挖进尺、砼喷层、双层小导管、提高初支强度的整体优化控制措施,可有效提高现场支护效果。     

基于Logistic回归的燃气管网风险因素重要度分析方法研究

为确定燃气管网风险评估的关键风险因素,以A省各地市燃气管网为研究对象,基于燃气专家经验确定燃气管线风险等级,提出基于Logistic回归的燃气管网风险因素重要度分析方法。采用样本增强及随机抽样的方式,选取400个均衡样本作为管网评估数据输入,通过因子分析方法对其进行降维,得到3个公共因子并作为一级指标反向构建燃气管网风险评估指标体系;利用有序多分类Logistic回归方法,根据回归系数绝对值大小对风险因素进行重要度排序。研究结果表明：外界环境对燃气管网风险的贡献程度相对较高,管道自身因素和巡检养护次之。研究结果可为城市燃气风险防控提供理论依据和方法参考。     

基于文献计量视角的我国应急资源研究进展分析

为理清应急资源研究发展脉络和研究热点,基于文献计量分析,从作者合作、机构合作、关键词共现、研究热点突现、关键词时序图谱5个方面,对1999—2021年中国知网(CNKI)收录的1503篇相关文献进行知识图谱分析,展现我国应急资源研究领域空间分布特征及研究热点.结果表明:在我国应急资源研究领域,作者和机构分布呈多元化发展...