Complex dynamics of the population with a simple age structure

The effects of the following modes of density-dependent control of population growth: density-dependent birth rate, adult survival rate, juvenile survival rate are compared based on the mathematical model of population dynamics. It is shown that the most efficient mechanisms limiting population size are decreasing with the growth of the adult population birth rate and/or the decreasing survival rate of the offspring with the increase in their number. However, these same mechanisms are responsible for oscillations of the population size and its chaotic change. The density-dependence of the adult survival rate is not efficient in constraining the population growth, but it can substantially limit the magnitude of oscillations of the population size.     

Integrating farming techniques in an ecological matrix model: Implementation on the primrose (Primula vulgaris)

Several studies have proven the importance of field margins in sustaining biodiversity and other work has been done on the effect of field management on field margin flora. However few models have been built to predict the effects of field management on the flora. Our project addresses this need for a model capable of predicting the effect of cropping techniques and their timing on the flora of field margins. Primula vulgaris is a biodiversity indicator, characteristic of undisturbed flora and found in field margins and woodlands: its population has been declining for several years. We created a temporal matrix model of P. vulgaris populations on field margins, taking into account the effects of field, field margin and roadside management based on literature and expert knowledge. We then analysed its sensitivity to demographic parameters by comparing lambda (growth rate) sensitivity and elasticity. We compared the management parameter effect using the relative growth rate of the population after 6 years of simulation. Sensitivity analysis to biological parameters showed the importance of adult survival and seed production and germination. Results show that P. vulgaris is particularly sensitive to broad-spectrum herbicides and that other management techniques like early mowing, scything and scrub-killer (diluted broad-spectrum herbicide or specific herbicide) are less aggressive. Our simulations show that management of cash crops in Brittany is too aggressive for P. vulgaris populations and that 4-5 years of grassland in the adjacent field are necessary to maintain populations.     

Population dynamics of splitnose rockfish (Sebastes diploproa) in the Northeast Pacific Ocean

We developed an age-structured population model of splitnose rockfish, Sebastes diploproa, in the Northeast Pacific Ocean. Splitnose rockfish is a bycatch species that co-occurs with several commercially important species that are currently declared overfished. Bycatch species are typically not the focus of stock assessment efforts because of their limited economic importance, but they may suffer the same population declines as species with which they co-occur. To examine the dynamics of splitnose rockfish for the first time, we analyzed data from three groundfish fisheries and four research surveys conducted in the Northeast Pacific Ocean. To develop a model, we used Stock Synthesis, a statistical framework for the construction of a population dynamics models utilizing both fishery-dependent and fishery-independent data. In the model, we reconstructed the total catch of the species back to 1900, estimated the dynamics of the stock spawning output and recruitment and evaluated biomass depletion relative to the stock's unfished state, as well as sources of uncertainty in model outputs. The results indicate that the splitnose rockfish is currently not overfished even though it has experienced several periods of abrupt decline in its biomass. Revisiting age data from earlier years, monitoring fishery discard, and investigating the spatial dynamics of splitnose rockfish is important to further improve the understanding of this species’ population dynamics, and decrease uncertainty in model results.     

Use of modern infrared thermography for wildlife population surveys

A commercially available thermal-infrared scanning system was used to survey populations of several wildlife species. The system's ability to detect species of different sizes in varying habitats relative to conventional survey methods, to differentiate between species in the same habitat, and the influence of environtmental factors on operational aspects of employing this technology in the field were evaluated. Total costs for the surveys were approximately $0.36/ha. There were marked discrepancies in the counts of untrained observers and those from trained analysis. Computer-assisted analysis of infrared imagery recorded 52% fewer deer than were estimated from drive counts, and densities of moose were five times those estimated from conventional aerial methods. By flying concentric circles and using telephoto, detailed counts of turkeys and deer were possible. With the aid of computer-assisted analysis, infrared thermography may become a useful wildlife population survey tool. More research is needed to verify the actual efficiency of detection by combining aerial scans with ground truthing for a variely of species and habitals.     

A practical method for small area population estimation

Estimating small area populations requires a compromise between precision and rigour, and resource input. Gloucestershire County Council have developed a method for making annual Parish and Ward estimates which the authors claim combines robustness, economy and simplicity with a degree of rigour, using available data sources. The method is described, and an indication of its accuracy given using the 1981 Census data.     

Scale-dependent analysis of an otter–crustacean system in Argentinean Patagonia

The Southern river otter or ‘huillin’, Lontra provocax, is an endangered species endemic of the Andean Patagonian region of Argentina and Chile. It feeds almost exclusively on the genera of macro-crustacea: Aegla and Sammastacus. The aim of this study was to analyse the role of food availability on the huillin’s distribution using a scale-dependent analysis of crustacean and otter distributions. We compared the distributions of otters and macro-crustaceans along a north–south regional gradient, between river basins of northern Patagonia, in an altitudinal gradient within a river basin, and between habitat types within a lake. We investigated the distribution of otters by sign surveys along lake shores, river banks and marine coasts, and of crustaceans using surveys in the water, undigested remains in mink (Mustela vison) scats, presence of external skeletons at the waterside and through interviews with local people. Our results show that there were heterogeneities in the distributions of macro-crustaceans at four scales and these were generally reflected in the distributions of freshwater otters. We conclude that the main factor limiting the distributions of L. provocax in freshwater environments is the availability of macro-crustaceans. This paper shows how scale-dependent type analyses of population distribution serves as a method for identifying key environmental factors for species for which the use of long-term demographies is unfeasible.     

Cannabis use and self-reported collisions in a representative sample of adult drivers

PROBLEM: This study examines the relationships between collision involvement and several measures of cannabis use, including driving after using cannabis, among drivers, based on a population survey of Ontario adults in 2002 and 2003. METHOD: Logistic regression analyses examined self-reported collision involvement in the last 12 months by lifetime use of cannabis, past year use of cannabis, and past year driving after using cannabis, while controlling for demographic characteristics. RESULTS: We found that the odds of reporting collision involvement was significantly higher among cannabis users, and among those who reported driving after cannabis use. Some evidence for a dose-response relationship was seen as well. DISCUSSION: Cannabis users and people who report driving after cannabis use are also more likely to report being involved in a collision in the past year. These observations suggest that collision prevention efforts could be aimed at these groups. Additional work to determine the causal pathways involved in the relationships observed here is needed. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: None.     

A process-based population dynamics model to explore target and non-target impacts of a biological control agent

The risks and benefits associated with efforts to control invasive alien species using classical biological control are being subjected to increasing scrutiny. A process-based population dynamics model was developed to explore the interactions between a folivorous biological control agent, Cleopus japonicus, and its plant host Buddleja davidii. The model revealed that climate could have a significant impact upon the interactions between B. davidii and C. japonicus. At the coolest sites, the impact of C. japonicus on B. davidii was slowed, but it was still eventually capable of controlling populations of B. davidii. At the warmer sites where both B. davidii and C. japonicus grew faster, B. davidii succumbed rapidly to weevil damage. We hypothesise that barring an encounter with a natural enemy, C. japonicus will eventually be able to provide sustained control B. davidii throughout the North Island of New Zealand. The model scenarios illustrate the potential for the C. japonicus population to attain high densities rapidly, and to defoliate patches of B. davidii, creating the potential for spill-over feeding on non-target plants. The potential magnitude of this threat will depend partly on the climate suitability for C. japonicus, the pattern by which it migrates in response to a reduction in the available leaf resource, and the suitability of non-target plants as hosts. In all migration scenarios considered, the pattern of population growth and resource consumption by C. japonicus was exponential, with a strong tendency toward complete utilisation of resource patches more quickly at the warmer compared to colder sites. In addition to providing some useful hypotheses about the effects of climate on the biological control system, and the non-target risks, it also provides some insight into the mechanisms by which climate affects the system.     

A resource-based approach to modelling the dynamics of interacting populations

The procedure for modelling the growth of single-species populations [Sakanoue, S., 2007. Extended logistic model for growth of single-species populations. Ecol. Model. 205, 159–168] is improved to be applicable to the study of the dynamics of interacting populations. The improved procedure is based on three assumptions: resource availability changes with population size as a variable, resource supply to populations and population demand for resources are defined as functions of resource availability and population size, and the variables of resource availability and population size shift in the supply function attracted to the demand function. These assumptions are organized into three equations. The equations can generate the dynamics models of plant, herbivore, and detritivore populations, and their own resources. The models can be used to describe prey–predator dynamics. They naturally contain nonlinear terms for the predator’s numerical and functional responses. Depending on the terms, the fluctuations in resource availability and population size stabilize. The three equations can also generate the dynamics models of different populations consuming the same resources. The analysis of zero isoclines of the models shows that a superior population can be simply defined as one with a higher intrinsic rate of natural increase, that a stable coexistence may be realized with the intraspecific interference or the interspecific facilitation of superiors, and that the interspecific interference or the intraspecific facilitation of inferiors may make the coexistence unstable and the inferiors winners depending on their initial population size.     

Modelling of spatio-temporal population dynamics of earthworms under wetland conditions—An integrated approach

Both the effects of earthworms on soils and the effects of soil conditions on earthworms have been studied with the help of experiments and modelling. This paper provides a model architecture allowing coupling both effects to a dynamic interaction in changing environmental conditions. We chose for a spatio-temporally explicit model and focussed on wetland conditions. Soil temperature and humidity have been modelled by means of finite volumes and were used to determine the spatial habitat suitability. The life cycles of earthworms have been modelled by Leslie matrices where soil humidity, soil temperature and population densities have been used to parametrize survival and transition probabilities. Earthworm dispersion has been described by a cellular automaton of the domain providing spatial population densities for both the life cycle submodel and the soil conditions submodel.