A survival-analysis-based simulation model for Russian wheat aphid population dynamics

A simulation model for Russian wheat aphid (RWA), Diuraphis noxia (Mordvilko), populations is built by integrating survival-analysis-based development and survivor functions and the same-shape reproduction distribution model in the framework of Leslie [Leslie, P.H., 1945. On the use of matrices in certain population mathematics. Biometrika 33, 183–212] matrix structure. Survival analysis is utilized to model both the development and survival of RWA populations, and the Cox (1972) proportional hazards model is fitted with the data sets from our laboratory observation of 1800 RWA individuals under 25 factorial combinations of five temperature regimes and five barley plant-growth stages. Rather than using simple age-specific survivor rates as in the traditional Leslie matrix, the survivor functions based on survival analysis describe age-specific, temperature and plant stage-dependent RWA survival probabilities. Similarly, a probability model from survival analysis to estimate the probability that an individual will reach mature adult stage is utilized to describe the development process; this makes the transition from nymphal stage to mature adult stage dependent on RWA age as well as temperature and plant-growth stage.Inspired by the same-shape distribution and rate-summation approach for modeling insect development, a similar approach for modeling insect reproduction under variable temperature is developed. This new same-shape reproduction distribution model incorporates individual variation in reproduction capability, as well as the effects of RWA age, temperature and plant-growth stage. Consequently, the same-shape reproduction distribution model replaces the simple age-specific fecundities in Leslie matrix model. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first to introduce survival analysis to simulation modeling in entomology and ecology and also the first to integrate our newly developed same-shape reproduction distribution model into application.     

Spatial and temporal dynamics at manakin leks: reconciling lek traditionality with male turnover

Leks, display grounds where males congregate and females visit to copulate, are typically traditional in location, despite often high turnover of individual males. How leks can persist in face of male turnover is not well understood, in part due to a lack of detailed field data allowing for a clear understanding of lek dynamics. We followed the fate of individual males at 11 to 15 leks of the blue-crowned manakin Lepidothrix coronata across four breeding seasons to gain insights on how leks are formed and changed in space and time. Between years, leks were traditional in location despite changes in territory ownership due to male disappearance and recruitment. New males were equally likely to recruit by taking over existing territories or by establishing new territories. Recruitment was influenced by age, as recruits were more likely to be adults than subadults. Lek size did not affect the probabilities of a male recruiting or persisting at a territory, and vocalization rate, a correlate of mating success in this population, did not affect male persistence. We used our field data to model changes in lek size and composition over longer periods of time (100 years) to understand how lek traditionality can be reconciled with high male turnover. Our simulations showed that leks in our population rapidly stabilize in size despite changes in territory ownership and that rates of male recruitment and disappearance compensate each other, such that leks have the potential to persist for several decades after the original males have disappeared from them.     

Exposure estimates to Fusarium mycotoxins through cereals intake

Mycotoxins are harmful substances produced by fungi in several commodities with a widespread presence in foodstuffs. Human exposure to mycotoxins occurs mainly by contaminated food. The quantitation of mycotoxins in cereal-based food, highly consumed by different age population, is of concern. In this survey, 159 cereal-based samples classified as wheat, maize and rice-based, have been evaluated for the occurrence of patulin, deoxynivalenol, 3-acetyl-deoxynivalenol, fusarenon-X, diacetoxyscirpenol, nivalenol, neosolaniol, HT-2, T-2 and zearalenone by gas chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry. Intakes were calculated for average consumers among adults, children and infants and compared with the tolerable daily intakes (TDI). Data obtained were used to estimate the potential exposure levels. 65.4% of the samples were contaminated with at least one mycotoxin and 15.7% of the analyzed samples showed co-occurrence of mycotoxin. The dietary exposure to HT-2 and T-2 toxins was estimated as 0.010 and 0.086 μg kg⁻¹ bw d⁻¹, amounting to 10% and 86% of the TDI, for adults and infants respectively. These results back up the necessity to take a vigilant attitude in order to minimize human intake of mycotoxins.     

Assessment of the use of selected rodents in ecological monitoring

Rodents can be useful in detecting environmental impacts because they are easy to study (easy to capture and handle), they can occur in densities adequate for statistical analysis, and they are ecologically important. In this study the usefulness of rodent populations for ecological monitoring was investigated by examining the effect of variation on the possibility of detecting differences among populations of rodents on 10 trapping grids. The effects of sampling frequencies and dispersal on detecting differences in population parameters among grids was also investigated, as was the possibility of inferring population parameters from correlations with habitat data. Statistically significant differences as small as 4.3Peromyscus maniculatus/ha were detected between grids. Of 10 populations, this comprised 12% of the highest-density population and 44% of the lowest-density population. Smaller and more differences among grids were found by examining only animals surviving from previous months. Dispersal confounds detection of direct impacts to populations, especially during the breeding season. Infrequent sampling fails to detect impacts that occur between sampling periods and will indicate impacts when observed changes result from natural variation. Correlations between population parameters and habitat variables exist but should only be used in predicting, not measuring, impacts. It is concluded that some rodent populations can be used in ecological monitoring. However, intensive sampling is required to account for variation and dispersal.     

Floating Population Increase and Its Influence on the Urban Population Situation: A Case Study in Beijing

Abstract

Floating population is a special population group in China resulting from the implementation of household registration system. This paper uses a set of floating population survey data, population censuses data and statistical data to analyze the increase and influence of floating population on the urban population situations in Beijing. It is found that Beijing has experienced a rapid increase of floating population since the 1990s and that the increase of this group has become the key factor of the current population expansion in the city. Its distribution in the urban regions intensified and extended the suburbanization process of the capital. In addition, the population structures of sex, age, education and employment in Beijing have changed to some extent due to the influx of floating population.     

Using computer graphics to reveal temporal changes in urban population density patterns

Population distributions change substantially over time in major metropolitan areas. Knowledge of these variations by time of day, day of the week and other time periods can be helpful to disaster planners who need to prepare response plans to earthquakes and other disasters that will injure and kill large numbers of people. Computer graphics can display data that describe these changing population patterns in ways that can be more easily comprehended than page after page of printed numbers. Several different illustrations of 3-D population density maps drawn by the ASPEX computer program are presented. Each illustrates a guideline that can be used to prepare maps that deal with the many ways of looking at urban population density distributions and their temporal changes. Those maps can help disaster planners gain a realistic perception of population density distributions by enabling them to see what cannot be seen from the actual physical structure of a large metropolitan region.     

Food Security in the Face of Climate Change,Population Growth,and Resource Constraints: Implications for Bangladesh

Ensuring food security has been one of the major national priorities of Bangladesh since its independence in 1971. Now, this national priority is facing new challenges from the possible impacts of climate change in addition to the already existing threats from rapid population growth, declining availability of cultivable land, and inadequate access to water in the dry season. In this backdrop, this paper has examined the nature and magnitude of these threats for the benchmark years of 2030 and 2050. It has been shown that the overall impact of climate change on the production of food grains in Bangladesh would probably be small in 2030. This is due to the strong positive impact of CO₂ fertilization that would compensate for the negative impacts of higher temperature and sea level rise. In 2050, the negative impacts of climate change might become noticeable: production of rice and wheat might drop by 8% and 32%, respectively. However, rice would be less affected by climate change compared to wheat, which is more sensitive to a change in temperature. Based on the population projections and analysis of future agronomic innovations, this study further shows that the availability of cultivable land alone would not be a constraint for achieving food self-sufficiency, provided that the productivity of rice and wheat grows at a rate of 10% or more per decade. However, the situation would be more critical in terms of water availability. If the dry season water availability does not decline from the 1990 level of about 100 Bm³, there would be just enough water in 2030 for meeting both the agricultural and nonagricultural needs. In 2050, the demand for irrigation water to maintain food self-sufficiency would be about 40% to 50% of the dry season water availability. Meeting such a high agricultural water demand might cause significant negative impacts on the domestic and commercial water supply, fisheries, ecosystems, navigation, and salinity management.     

Is road rage increasing? Results of a repeated survey

PROBLEM: We report on trends in road rage victimization and perpetration based on population survey data. METHOD: Based on repeated cross-sectional telephone surveys of Ontario adults between July 2001 and December 2003, logistic regression analyses examined differences between years in road rage victimization and perpetration in the previous year controlling for demographic characteristics. RESULTS: The prevalence of any road rage victimization in the previous year decreased significantly from 47.5% in 2001 to 40.6% in 2003, while prevalence of any road rage perpetration remained stable (31.0% to 33.6%). Logistic regression analyses revealed that the odds of experiencing any road rage victimization was 33% higher in 2001 and 30% higher in 2002, than in 2003. DISCUSSION: Survey data provide a valuable perspective on road rage trends, but efforts to track road rage incidents is also needed. SUMMARY: In Ontario, the proportion of adults experiencing any road rage victimization decreased from 2001 to 2003 while the proportion reporting any road rage perpetration remained stable. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: None.     

从人口、资源、环境角度论西部地区的可持续发展

论述了可持续发展战略的由来及内涵 ,并从人口、资源、环境角度论述了西部实现可持续发展的战略     

A hydrologically driven model of swamp water mosquito population dynamics

We develop a swamp water mosquito population model that is forced solely by environmental variability. Measured temperature and land surface wetness conditions are used to simulate Anopheles walkeri population dynamics in a northern New Jersey habitat. Land surface wetness conditions, which represent oviposition habitat availability, are derived from simulations using a dynamic hydrology model. Using only these two density-independent effects, population model simulations of biting Anoph. walkeri correlate significantly with light trap collections. These results suggest that prediction of mosquito populations and the diseases they transmit could be better constrained by inclusion of environmental variability.