基于VEGETATION数据的区域生态系统质量评价之一——指标体系选择

目前,环境资源问题已经对我国建设"和谐社会"构成了严重挑战,如何选取合适的评价指标体系和构建生态评价模型对生态系统进行准确的评价是困难的,也是十分必要的.从生态系统的平衡、波动、干扰及阈值等基本特点出发,构建了区域生态质量评价指标体系包括生产能力指数、服务功能的稳定度指数和人口压力指数三大指标.     

Nighttime lights and population changes in Europe 1992–2012

Nighttime satellite photographs of Earth reveal the location of lighting and provide a unique view of the extent of human settlement. Nighttime lights have been shown to correlate with economic development and population but little research has been done on the link between nighttime lights and population change over time. We explore whether population decline is coupled with decline in lighted area and how the age structure of the population and GDP are reflected in nighttime lights. We examine Europe between the period of 1992 and 2012 using a Geographic Information System and regression analysis. The results suggest that population decline is not coupled with decline in lighted area. Instead, human settlement extent is more closely related to the age structure of the population and to GDP. We conclude that declining populations will not necessarily lead to reductions in the extent of land development.     

Three decades of changes in water environment of a large freshwater Lake and its relationship with socio-economic indicators

Tai Lake (Ch: Taihu) has attracted international attention forcyanobacteria blooms. However, the drivers of cultural eutrophication, especially long-term socio-economic indicators have been little researched. The results of research demonstrate how socio-economic development affected quality of water and how it has been improved by anthropogenic activities. This study described variability in indicators of water quality in Tai Lakeand investigated thedrivers. Significant relationships existed between concentrations of annual mean total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorous (TP), chemical oxygen demand (COD) and biological oxygen demand (BOD), and population, per capital gross domestic production (GDP) and sewage discharge (p?<?0.05). However, mechanisms causing change varied among TN, TP, COD and BOD. Before 2000, the main contributors to increases in concentrations of TN were human population, GDP and volumes of domestic sewage discharges. After 2000, discharges of industrial sewage become the primary contributor. After 1998, the regressions of annual mean TN, TP and COD on per capital GDP, population and domestic sewage discharge were reversed compared to the former period. Since 1999, an apparent inverted U-shaped relationship between environmental pollution and economic development has developed, which indicated that actions taken by governments have markedly improved quality of water in Tai Lake. The statistical relationship between BOD and per capital GDP didn’t conform to the Kuznet curve. The U-shaped Kuznet curve may offer hope for the future that with significant environmental investments a high GDP can be reached and maintained without degradation of the environment, especially through appropriate management of industrial sewage discharge.     

An economic assessment of the health effects and crop yield losses caused by air pollution in mainland China

Air pollution is severe in China, and pollutants such as PM_(2.5) and surface O_3 may cause major damage to human health and crops, respectively. Few studies have considered the health effects of PM_(2.5) or the loss of crop yields due to surface O_3 using model-simulated air pollution data in China. We used gridded outputs from the WRF-Chem model, high resolution population data, and crop yield data to evaluate the effects on human health and crop yield in mainland China. Our results showed that outdoor PM_(2.5) pollution was responsible for 1.70–1.99 million cases of all-cause mortality in 2006. The economic costs of these health effects were estimated to be 151.1–176.9 billion USD, of which 90% were attributed to mortality. The estimated crop yield losses for wheat, rice, maize, and soybean were approximately 9, 4.6, 0.44, and 0.34 million tons, respectively, resulting in economic losses of 3.4 billion USD. The total economic losses due to ambient air pollution were estimated to be 154.5–180.3 billion USD, accounting for approximately 5.7%–6.6% of the total GDP of China in 2006. Our results show that both population health and staple crop yields in China have been significantly affected by exposure to air pollution. Measures should be taken to reduce emissions, improve air quality, and mitigate the economic loss.     

Population growth, economic growth, technology changes in relation to environmental changes──A theoretical modelling analysis of environmental changes

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“双轨控制法”浅议

“浓度控制法”与“总量控制法”简称“双轨控制法”。“双轨控制法”的提出与实施,成为工业防治指导思想上一次大的进步。现就大气污染防治问题进行探讨。     

A cost-benefit analysis of a population screening programme for neural tube defects

Population screening for neural tube defects is possible by measuring maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein levels with appropriate follow-up as required. British Columbia has approximately 39 000 births annually and the incidence of neural tube defects is 1–55 per 1000 births (0–94 per 1000 livebirths). Results from a cost-benefit analysis suggest that the outlined screening programme would be cost-beneficial for British Columbia. Other important factors essential to consider before instituting a population screening programme are discussed.     

Temporal genetic structure of a drone congregation area of the giant Asian honeybee (Apis dorsata)

The giant Asian honeybee (Apis dorsata), like all other members of the genus Apis, has a complex mating system in which the queens and males (drones) mate at spatially defined drone congregation areas (DCAs). Here, we studied the temporal genetic structure of a DCA of A. dorsata over an 8-day time window by the genotyping of sampled drones with microsatellite markers. Analysis of the genotypic data revealed a significant genetic differentiation between 3 sampling days and indicated that the DCA was used by at least two subpopulations at all days in varying proportions. The estimation of the number of colonies which used the DCA ranged between 20 and 40 colonies per subpopulation, depending on the estimation procedure and population. The overall effective population size was estimated as high as N _e=140. The DCA seems to counteract known tendencies of A. dorsata for inbreeding within colony aggregations by facilitating gene flow among subpopulations and increasing the effective population size.     

Impacts of earthworms on soil nutrients and plant growth in soybean and maize agroecosystems

The objective of this experiment was to determine the effects of earthworms on soil N pools and plant growth in soybean and maize agroecosystems. The species and number of individuals in earthworm communities were manipulated in plot-scale field enclosures (2.4 m × 1.2 m) by first reducing earthworm populations within enclosures with carbaryl pesticide, and then adding earthworm treatments to the enclosures. Soybean was grown in the enclosures in the first year and stover maize in the second year.The success of earthworm manipulations in field enclosures was affected by climate conditions and available food resources. The endogeic earthworm species Aporrectodea caliginosa was dominant in all enclosures, while introduced anecic Lumbricus terrestris earthworms had poor survival. In the first season, when climate conditions were favourable for earthworm survival and growth, there was a significant (P < 0.05) linear increase in soil mineral-N and microbial biomass N concentrations in the 0–15 cm depth of enclosures with more earthworms. Similarly, soybean grain and grain-N yield was significantly (P < 0.05) greater in enclosures with the largest earthworm populations than the control which had no earthworms added. In the second season, when climate conditions were less favourable, there was no effect of earthworms on soil N pools or maize plants, probably due to poor survival of introduced earthworms.     

Parasite transmission in a migratory multiple host system

A transmission model was devised for trichostrongyloid nematodes of saiga antelopes and domestic sheep in Kazakhstan. The framework extends previous models by including seasonal migration of saigas, contact with separate populations of sheep, and climate-driven stochasticity in herbage biomass and in the development, survival and migration onto herbage of free-living larvae. The model was parameterised for the contrasting life histories of Marshallagia, Haemonchus and Nematodirus, three important parasites of saigas and sheep in the region, and was successful at predicting broad qualitative patterns of infection dynamics in sheep and saigas. Parasite transmission between saigas and sheep was predicted to be most important for Marshallagia (from sheep to saigas in the south in winter, and onward transmission to sheep in the north in summer) and Haemonchus (from sheep in the north in summer via saigas to sheep further south in autumn). Model predictions for winter transmission of Marshallagia infection in saigas were consistent with field data, which showed that saigas culled before they have grazed the winter range carry lower burdens of this parasite than older animals. The model provides a mechanistic explanation for its predictions, which will assist hypothesis formation, and further the epidemiological basis of efforts to control parasite transmission between wildlife and livestock in both directions. A similar modelling approach could prove useful in other situations where detailed mechanistic models of parasite transmission are inappropriate in the face of parameter uncertainty and spatio-temporal variation in climate and host density. This is likely to include the majority of wildlife-parasite systems.