跨世纪人口压力对中国生态环境的影响及对策

人口是人口，资源与环境系统中最根本的主导因素，人口增长过快，将直接加大对资源与环境的压力，并影响人口素质的提高，根据我国人口庞大的基数，过快的增长速度，独特的人口结构和较低的文化素质现状，对生态环境造成的压力进行了系统分析，进而提出了控制人口增长，改善生态环境和全面发展国发经济的对策，以保证跨世纪人口，资源，环境呈现协调，持续，健康的发展趋势。     

A study on the carrying capacity of the available habitat for the Rhinopithecus bieti population at Mt. Laojun in Yunnan, China

Background, aim, and scope  The Yunnan snub-nosed monkey is one of the most endangered primates in the world. It is experiencing a range of ongoing threats and the persisting effects of past disturbances. The prospects for this species are not very optimistic because habitat corridors are severely damaged by logging, grazing, and mining. Each group of the monkeys in different areas is facing a unique variety of threats. Based on genetic analysis, Rhinopithecus bieti should be separated into three management units for conservation, of which the Mt. Laojun management unit involves the most endangered primates. Despite the fact that the vegetation on Mt. Laojun is in a relatively pristine state, only two groups of monkeys, of a total of fewer than 300, survive in the area. With this paper, we aimed to address the capacity of the monkeys’ habitat at the study site and the possible reasons for the small populations. Materials and methods  Rapid ecological assessment based on a SPOT 5 image and field survey was used to simulate the vegetation of the whole area based on reference ecological factors of the GIS system. The vegetation map of the site was thus derived from this simulation. Based on the previous studies, the three vegetation types were identified as the suitable habitat of the monkeys. The confusion matrix-based field GPS points were applied to analyze the precision of the habitat map. Based on the map of suitable habitat of the monkeys, the utilization of the habitat and the carrying capacity were analyzed in the GIS. Results  The confusion matrix-based field GPS points were applied to the habitat analysis process, and it was found that the habitat map was 81.3% precise. Then, with the current habitat map, we found that the mixed forest currently used by the monkeys is only a very small fraction (2.65%) of the overall potential habitat of the population, while the dark conifer forest is 4.09%. Discussion  Poaching is the greatest short-term threat to this species, particularly in the southern range where local residents have a strong tradition of hunting. Quite a few individual monkeys are still trapped accidentally due to the high density of traps. These problems are hard to mitigate because it is difficult to enforce laws due to the extremely rugged terrain. Conclusions  The results show that there is a great ecological capacity of the area for the monkey’s survival and a great potential for an expansion of the monkey population at the site. Based on the current population and its geographical range, it can be estimated that the suitable habitat area defined by this study can support more monkeys, about many times the current population. Thus, at least in the Mt. Laojun Area, poaching pressure is the main factor to be responsible for the low density of Yunnan snub-nosed monkeys instead of habitat alteration. Recommendations and perspectives  Based on these results, some suggestions relating to conservation can be made: Focus conservation efforts on the current distribution area of the monkeys and create a 20 km buffer zone; design a long-term plan for the suitable habitat outside the buffer zone to set up a wildlife corridor in the long run; establish an association for the local hunters exploiting, their knowledge on the animals to promote monkey conservation and stop poaching. Also, the map derived from the study helps managers to allocate conservation resources more efficiently and enhances the overall outcomes of conservation measures.     

The environmental impacts of regional disparity in population and wealth distribution in Nigeria

The disparity in both population and wealth distribution in Nigeria by geo-political zones is well recognized. There is also the recognition that some of the environmental problems in certain sections of the country can be attributed to the imbalance in both population and wealth distribution. Hence the various agitations for environmental resource control in the country. What is lacking however is the research that shows the magnitude of the linkages between the disparity and the environmental degradation in regional context. This provides the basis for this research. To achieve the aim of the research, a STIRPAT model was employed as an analytical tool. The findings show that the southern geopolitical zones are generally more densely populated and wealthier than the northern zones. The south is also experiencing a higher degree of environmental resource degradation attributable to anthropogenic factors. Thus, there is congruence between population density, wealth distribution and environmental degradation in Nigeria. Therefore the achievement of sustainable environment and development in Nigeria requires deliberate policies to mitigate the impact of population concentration and wealth creation on the environment. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

对人口过多灾害的讨论

本文从灾害学的角度提出了人口过多或增长过快也是一种灾害,这种灾害与所有的自然灾害和人文灾害密切相关,是许多灾害的诱发因素。     

Sustainable agriculture and eradication of rural poverty in Pakistan

Poverty is rampant in the rural areas of Pakistan, where people are in a state of deprivation with regard to incomes, clothing, housing, healthcare, education, sanitary facilities and human rights. Agriculture generates nearly 20.9 percent of the country's GDP and provides employment for 43.4 percent of its workforce. Most importantly, 65.9 percent of the population living in rural areas is directly or indirectly dependent on agriculture for their livelihood. Rising population, shrinking agricultural land, increasing demand for water resources, widespread land degradation and inadequate infrastructure appear to be major concerns of the agriculture sector in Pakistan. An attempt has been made to examine the population growth–agriculture growth–poverty alleviation linkage. It is argued that agriculture will continue to be one of the most important sectors of Pakistan's economy for years to come. To alleviate poverty, it is suggested that Pakistan enhance the productivity of the agriculture sector through the provision of a series of inputs including provision of easy credit to the small farmer, availability of quality fertilizers and pesticides, tractor and harvester services, improvement in the effectiveness of the vast irrigation system and, finally, farmer education. It is concluded that the high rate of population growth needs to be curbed for increased agricultural productivity to have any significant effect on poverty in rural areas of Pakistan.     

Impingement losses of white perch at Hudson River power plants: Magnitude and biological significance

We performed a quantitative assessment of the impact of impingement at power plants on the Hudson River white perch population We estimated that impingement reduces the abundance of each white perch year class by at least 10% and probably by 15–20% or more after 2–3 years of vulnerability to power plants We attempted to detect effects of impingement on average year-class abundance of white perch from a time series of abundance indices derived from impingement data We found, however, that neither impingement collection rates observed at Hudson River power plants nor beach seine data provide a reliable index of year-class strength in white perch. Even if a reliable index were developed, natural fluctuations in year-class strength are great enough that a short-term monitoring program would be inadequate for detecting even a large reduction in average year-class strength. We performed a multipopulation analysis using simple food chain and food web models The results suggest that any long-term decline in white perch abundance caused by impingement should be accompanied by an increase in the abundance of one or more competing fish species and by an increase in the biomass of adult white perch relative to young-of-the-year.We conclude that 1) at present, assessments of population-level impact of impingement should focus on short-term effects, 2) research is needed to develop a reliable index of year-class strength for use in long-term monitoring programs, 3) identification and quantification of natural environmental factors influencing year-class strength are needed to improve our ability to predict and detect changes in abundance, and 4) it would be useful in designing monitoring programs to focus on detecting patterns of change among populations and age groups rather than solely on declines in abundance of individual populationsResearch sponsored by the Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, US Nuclear Regulatory Commission under Interagency Agreement No. 40-550-75 with the US Department of Energy under Contract W-7405-eng-26 with Union Carbide Corporation. Publication No. 2030, Environmental Sciences Division, ORNL.     

时变条件下的有害物品运输的人口风险分析

随着工业的发展 ,有害物品运输量在逐年增加 ,有害物品对于人类威胁也在加大 ,有害物品运输的风险问题受到了广泛的关注。由于有害物品运输中 ,路径周围的人口密度随着时间的变化而变化 ,进而影响在运输过程中的人口风险。笔者在有时变情况下 ,对有害物品运输人口风险进行了分析 ;建立了估计人口风险的模型 ;获得了有害物品运输中的最小人口风险以及最佳出发时间 ;进一步完善了有害物品的运输的风险分析 ;为如何减少有害物品运输的人口风险提供了依据。     

青山水库底栖动物群落初步研究

1996年10月－1997年7月对青山水库底栖大型无脊椎动物群落进行了4次采样调查,共发现大型底栖无脊椎动物16种,其中寡毛类5种,水生昆虫7种,软件动物2种,蛭类和线虫各1种。青山水库底栖动物群落密度和生物量的水平变化为库出口＞库中心＞进口。湖区底栖动物群落占优势的各类为：刺夹长足摇蚊（Tanypus punctipennis）、花翅前突摇蚊（Procladius choreus)和霍甫水丝蚓（Limnodrilus hoffmeisteri)。调查结果表明,目前青山水库底栖动物群落的种类组成指示该水体已属富营养型,但从生物量上分析,目前青山水库应属中营养。     

Simulated potential effects of ecological factors on a hypothetical population of Chiricahua leopard frog (Rana chiricahuensis)

Simulations provide an opportunity to examine how single or multiple perturbations may impact a specific species. The objectives of this study were to identify thresholds at which changes in stream peak flow, stream base flow, and/or chytrid fungus presence alter long-term Rana chiricahuensis populations. We used scenarios with varying peak flow mortality rates, base flow mortality rates, and chytrid fungus mortality rates. Sensitivity analysis was also conducted. Over 50 years, populations in six scenarios increased and 13 scenarios decreased. Eight scenarios resulting with fewer than 100 individuals included stochastic effects for at least two of three perturbations and the remaining scenarios included chronic effects of 30% or higher. Scenarios with population increases had either no chytrid fungus effect or chronic effects from perturbations totaling less than 30%. In the absence of chytrid fungus, populations increased and became stable. At a 10% annual death rate caused by chytrid fungus, the R. chiricahuensis population decreased 46.8%. At a 20% death rate, the population decreased 98.6%. Model scenarios were sensitive to peak flow death rates. As peak flow mortality increased to 10 and 20%, extinction rates increased to 91.7 and 99.9%, respectively. With model parameters and the no base flow mortality, R. chiricahuensis populations declined by 92% with a 3.2% extinction rate at 50 years. Models with base flow mortality rates of 10 and 20% resulted in population extinction rates of 48.7 and 96.1%, respectively. Scenario analysis of perturbations on a hypothetical R. chiricahuensis population provided a framework in which to view combined effects on a species. Analysis supports supposition that chytrid fungus is the proximate cause of many amphibian declines, but the added effect of base flow and peak flow has the potential to hasten declines.