养殖户气候适应性行为对提高养殖业生产效率的影响

气候变化给当前中国农业生产转型带来严峻挑战,从效率视角分析农户适应气候变化行为具有重要意义。本文探讨养殖户气候适应性行为与养殖业生产效率之间的逻辑关系,并基于中国五省的微观调查数据,采用倾向得分匹配方法与选择纠偏随机前沿生产函数模型（Selectivity-corrected Stochastic Production Frontier model）相结合的实证思路,分析养殖户气候适应性行为对养殖业生产效率的影响。研究表明：（1）养殖户气候适应性行为能够提高养殖业生产效率,纠正可观测因素与不可观测因素造成的选择性偏差后,适应组养殖户平均养殖业生产效率为0.618,未适应组养殖户的平均养殖业生产效率为0.551。（2）若未考虑选择性偏差,养殖户适应性行为对养殖业生产效率的影响将会错估。研究成果可为推进政府制定农户适应气候变化政策与推动农业生产转型提供有力支持。     

Climate change collaboration among natural resource management agencies: lessons learned from two US regions

It has been argued that regional collaboration can facilitate adaptation to climate change impacts through integrated planning and management. In an attempt to understand the underlying institutional factors that either support or contest this assumption, this paper explores the institutional factors influencing adaptation to climate change at the regional scale, where multiple public land and natural resource management jurisdictions are involved. Insights from two mid-western US case studies reveal that several challenges to collaboration persist and prevent fully integrative multi-jurisdictional adaptation planning at a regional scale. We propose that some of these challenges, such as lack of adequate time, funding and communication channels, be reframed as opportunities to build interdependence, identify issue-linkages and collaboratively explore the nature and extent of organisational trade-offs with respect to regional climate change adaptation efforts. Such a reframing can better facilitate multi-jurisdictional adaptation planning and management of shared biophysical resources generally while simultaneously enhancing organisational capacity to mitigate negative effects and take advantage of potentially favourable future conditions in an era characterised by rapid climate change.     

陕西省关中,陕南地区初夏干旱特点及预测研究

应用1958～1995年38a6月份陕西省关中、陕南地区24站的降水资料，研究了关中、陕南6月份的降水特点；选取其中12站作为资料站，计算出关中、陕南6月份的降水指数f,研究了关中、陕南初夏（6月份）的干旱特点；就初夏干旱发生的高空500hPa环流形势与历年平均状况进行了对比分析，并对初夏干旱作了预测。     

Sensitivity of stand dynamics to grazing in mixed Pinus sylvestris and Quercus pubescens forests: A modelling study

Only recently, studies of forest succession have started to include the effects of browsing by wild or domestic ungulates. We aim to contribute to this topic by analysing the influence of goat grazing on the long-term coexistence of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and pubescent oak (Quercus pubescens Willd.) in the low-elevation forests of an inner-Alpine dry valley. The forest gap model ForClim was first adapted to these site conditions by examining the site-dependent sensitivity of the model with regard to the species-specific parameterisation of the drought tolerance as well as the light demand of establishing and adult trees. In a second step, the behaviour of the model was investigated with respect to different grazing intensities and species-specific browsing susceptibilities. The last step was the application of a grazing scenario based on forest history, with 150 years of heavy browsing (by goats) at the beginning of the simulated forest succession, followed by less intensive grazing pressure.     

Building resilience to drought in desertification-prone savannas in Sub-Saharan Africa: The water perspective

Securing sustainable livelihood conditions and reducing the risk of outmigration in savanna ecosystems hosted in the tropical semiarid regions is of fundamental importance for the future of humanity in general. Although precipitation in tropical drylands, or savannas, is generally more significant than one might expect, these regions are subject to considerable rainfall variability which causes frequent periods of water deficiency. This paper addresses the twin problems of “drought and desertification” from a water perspective, focusing on the soil moisture (green water) and plant water uptake deficiencies. It makes a clear distinction between long‐term climate change, meteorological drought, and agricultural droughts and dry spells caused by rainfall variability and land degradation. It then formulates recommendations to better cope with and to build resilience to droughts and dry spells. Coping with desertification requires a new conceptual framework based on green‐blue water resources to identify hydrological opportunities in a sea of constraints. This paper proposes an integrated land/water approach to desertification where ecosystem management supports agricultural development to build social‐ecological resilience to droughts and dry spells. This approach is based on the premise that to combat desertification, focus should shift from reducing trends of land degradation in agricultural systems to water resource management in savannas and to landscape‐wide ecosystem management.     

生态恢复过程中的种群遗传学考虑

生态恢复是生态科学的最终实验,从种群角度看,恢复的目标是使种群（尤其是优势种或建群种）到具有生长、繁殖和适应进化变化的能力。要达到这个目标,种群遗传学知识必不可少。遗传变异是物种适应变化环境的基础,而局部适应则是种群适应局部环境遗传分化的结果,它们在生态恢复中起着重要的作用。分析了生态恢复过程中影响种群遗传变异因素,主要有取样误差和小种群效应（主要是瓶颈或建立者事件及其以后的近交和漂变等）,在进行     

河南省旱涝灾害的地域分异规律和减灾对策研究

河南省地处我国南北气候过渡地带,自古以来就以旱涝灾害频繁而著称。根据旱涝灾害的地域分异特点,可将全省分为五个区。减轻旱涝灾害的主要措施是:加强水利建设,进一步开发地下水;扩大引黄灌溉、抗旱、补源面积;走旱作农业的道路,广泛提高农田抗灾水平。     

1978年长江中下游地区夏季大旱及其影响

本文利用相对距平和Z—指数为指标分析了1978年长江中下游地区的夏季大旱,并着重研究了干旱对该地区水资源和农业生产的影响。     

象山港国华电厂强增温海域浮游动物群落结构和多样性的时空特征

为探明电厂强增温海域浮游动物群落结构和多样性的时空特征,于2011年在象山港国华电厂附近海域,采用浮游生物Ⅱ型网(网目160μm)进行10站位2重复的浮游动物季节性采样.结果表明,共识别出62种浮游动物(含幼体),平均丰度为9 531.1 ind.m-3.该海域浮游动物群落主要由桡足类和浮游幼体类组成,且以浮游幼体类为主,比例高达66.6%.相似性分析显示,各月间浮游动物群落结构差异极显著(P<0.01),控制群落结构的优势种有18种,最重要的判别种有瘦尾胸刺水蚤Centropages tenuiremis、大同长腹剑水蚤Oithona similis、伪长腹剑水蚤Oithona fallax、克氏纺锤水蚤Acartia clausi、长尾基齿哲水蚤Clausocalanus furcatus、针刺拟哲水蚤Paracalanus aculeatus和小拟哲水蚤Paracalanus parvus.GLM分析显示,月份间的多样性指数也存在极显著差异(P<0.01),经计算,各多样性指数随水温增加而下降的拐点水温范围为20.31～22.31℃.在断面上,离排水口0.2 km断面(D02)的平均水温比2 km断面高2.16℃.受温度影响,主要优势种如瘦尾胸刺水蚤和大同长腹剑水蚤倾向于向D02断面移动,克氏纺锤水蚤、尤其是大型浮游动物倾向于远离排水口,并向1.2 km断面聚集,使D02断面的种类数最少(33种)、丰度最低(5 522.8 ind.m-3),而1.2 km断面的种类数(53种)和丰度(16 491.0 ind.m-3)最高;同时,D02断面的多样性指数也明显低于其它断面.经线性回归分析,海域增温使多样性指数极显著下降(P<0.01),每增温1℃浮游动物丰富度下降12.3%.     

亚热带流域氮磷排放与养殖业环境承载力实例研究

畜禽养殖业粪便排放已经成为我国农村地区主要的农业面源污染源之一,也是制约养殖业良性发展的主要瓶颈.本文以湖南省长沙县典型亚热带流域为研究单元,基于流域水环境定位观测、耕地氮(N)磷(P)消纳能力以及养殖业调查和土壤分析资料,初步分析了亚热带丘陵区的面源污染现状及畜禽养殖业的环境承载力.结果表明,研究区金井河流域134.4 km2范围内N、P年负荷分别为N 2.72 t·km-2和P0.11t·km-2,其中养殖粪便对水体总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)负荷的贡献率分别约为42.2％和62.0％.区内平均畜禽养殖密度为3.46 AU·hm-2(相当于流域内年出栏生猪24.39万头),显著高于现有化肥用量条件下流域的实际承载力1.13 AU·hm-2(相当于流域内年出栏生猪6.35万头),因此养殖密度过高是导致研究区水体NP负荷较高的主要原因.区内N、P盈余量分别为N 35.8 kg·hm-2、P 18.61 kg·hm-2.研究区基本不施用化肥条件下畜禽养殖业的最大环境承载力为7.26 AU·hm-2,在有机肥占合理施肥量30％条件下,当地畜禽养殖业的环境承载力为2.74AU·hm-2(相当于流域内年出栏生猪19.50万头).降低养殖密度、调整养殖业空间布局以及提高养殖废弃物的资源化利用率是防治当前面源污染的有效途径.