基于Poisson对数线性模型的居民点与地理因子的相关性研究

在基于图斑的地理因子库基础上．通过样本采样、数据预处理、建立Poisson对数线性模型、模型估计、统计检验和假设检验等一系列处理过程．研究全国范围内居民点个数与地貌类型、表土质地、高程带、土地利用类型、年降水量和平均气温等地理因子的相关关系．定量地揭示地理气候条件对居民点分布的影响。从而对挖掘具有特定地理气候特征的地理单元内居民点分布的规律．进而推演目标区域内居民点分布的特性并估算该区域内居民点个数打下理论和数据基础。本文是地理学与统计学交叉研究。运用本文的结论．结合不同人口或经济发展水平等级的居民地的研究．将对区域内人口、资源与环境的协调发展做出贡献。     

Extent and Channel Morphology of Unmapped Headwater Stream Segments of the Quabbin Watershed,Massachusetts1

Brooks, Robert T. and Elizabeth A. Colburn, 2011. Extent and Channel Morphology of Unmapped Headwater Stream Segments of the Quabbin Watershed, Massachusetts. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(1):158‐168. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00499.x Abstract: Effective regulatory protection and management of headwater resources depend on consistent and accurate identification and delineation of stream occurrence. Published maps and digital resources fail to represent the true occurrence and extent of headwater streams. This study assessed the accuracy of mapped origins of “blue‐line” streams depicted on U.S. Geological Survey topographic maps, and, if present, the morphological characteristics of unmapped stream segments. We identified 170 mapped stream origins on the Quabbin Reservoir watershed, Massachusetts. Of 30 mapped stream origins, we identified and examined 26 unmapped stream segments above 25, with an average length of 502 m. Twenty unmapped tributaries occurred on 10 of the 26 unmapped segments, with an average length of 127 m. Wetland reaches occurred more frequently and were larger on unmapped than on mapped stream segments. A significant and complex stream network occurs above most mapped stream origins. For the Quabbin watershed, we estimate that there are 85.8 km of unmapped stream upgradient of 314.5 km of mapped streams. Reliance on mapped stream networks for regulatory standards allows for the potential disturbance or even destruction of the unmapped stream resources. Jurisdictional regulations and guidelines should be revised so that the occurrence of streams should require field validation.     

Influence of grain size on species-habitat models

High resolution remote sensing data facilitate the use of small-scale habitat features such as trees or hedges in the analysis of species-habitat relationships. Such data potentially enable more accurate species-habitat mapping than lower resolution data. Here, for the first time, we systematically investigated this hypothesis by altering the spatial resolution from 1 m up to 1000 m grain size in species-habitat models of 13 bird species. The study area covered the Nidda river catchment in central Germany, a large heterogeneous landscape of 1620 km². A high resolution habitat map of the area was converted to coarser spatial and thematic resolutions in seven steps. We investigated how model performance responded to grain size, and we compared the differential effects of spatial resolution and thematic resolution on model performance. Explained deviance (D²) of the bird models generally decreased with coarser spatial resolution of the data, although it did not decrease monotonically in all species. On average across all species, model D² decreased from 41.5 at 1 m grain size to 15.9 at 1000 m grain size. Ten species were best modelled at 1 m, two species at 3 m and one species at 32 m grain size. Model performance degraded continuously with increasing grain size, both in habitat generalist and habitat specialist bird species, and was systematically lower in habitat generalists. The higher model performance observed at finer grain sizes was most likely caused by the combination of three factors: (1) high spatial accuracy of bird records and (2) a more precise location and delineation of habitat features and, (3) to a lesser degree, by more habitat types differentiated in maps of finer resolution. We conclude that higher spatial and thematic resolution data can be essential for deriving accurate predictions on bird distribution patterns from species-habitat models. Especially for bird species that are sensitive to specific land-use types or to small-scaled habitat features, a grain size of 1-3 m seems most promising.     

基于GIS的珠三角区域空气质量时空特征研究

以广东省环境信息GIS综合发布平台发布的2005年至2010年间粤港珠三角区域空气质量日报中空气质量等级数据为基础,利用GIS技术,首次采用网格化分析、均值分析、标准差分析、专题图渲染等分析方法,针对空间网格的空气质量年度均值、标准差等指标,对近5年来珠三角区域空气质量在横向上从珠三角空间区域范围,纵向上5年时间尺度内时空特征进行深入的研究,解决了在大地理区域、5年时间尺度空气质量分等定级过程中的区域边界划分问题。结果表明：珠三角的RAQI区域均值从2006年的2.3下降到2010年的2.02,空气质量整体上逐年改善;区域污染高值中心由东莞西部逐步向佛山中部转移;珠三角的肇庆南部、佛山中部、中山北部以及广州的南沙等区域空气质量变化幅度较大;惠州、深圳、香港等地区的空气质量较好,也较为稳定。     

Creating an academic landscape of sustainability science: an analysis of the citation network

Sustainability is an important concept for society, economics, and the environment, with thousands of research papers published on the subject annually. As sustainability science becomes a distinctive research field, it is important to define sustainability clearly and grasp the entire structure, current status, and future directions of sustainability science. This paper provides an academic landscape of sustainability science by analyzing the citation network of papers published in academic journals. A topological clustering method is used to detect the sub-domains of sustainability science. Results show the existence of 15 main research clusters: Agriculture, Fisheries, Ecological Economics, Forestry (agroforestry), Forestry (tropical rain forest), Business, Tourism, Water, Forestry (biodiversity), Urban Planning, Rural Sociology, Energy, Health, Soil, and Wildlife. Agriculture, Fisheries, Ecological Economics, and Forestry (agroforestry) clusters are predominant among these. The Energy cluster is currently developing, as indicated by the age of papers in the cluster, although it has a relatively small number of papers. These results are compared with those obtained by natural language processing. Education, Biotechnology, Medical, Livestock, Climate Change, Welfare, and Livelihood clusters are uniquely extracted by natural language processing, because they are common topics across clusters in the citation network.     

工业园共生演化定量研究

以江苏泰兴精细化工园及南通农药化工园为例,将最大流原理及自组织特征映射神经网络用于研究非成熟工业园的产业共生演化.由于演算得到的序参量ξ值虽然可以表征各工业园共生效益随时间变化情况,却无法用来横向比较工业园间共生效益,因此对计算过程进行了改进,提出新的序参量计算方法.比较了序参量ξ与产业关联度、交换量等指标后,定义ξ为产业共生演化效率指标,并将卡伦堡工业园2005年得出的ξ值2.87作为共生演化稳定状态标准值.研究发现,2个工业园在较少人工干预下,ξ值逐年上升,分别从0.04,0.133增加到1.51和1.675,但远小于卡伦堡工业园的2005年ξ值.建议在工业园自发形成进程基础上,加以合理引导,促进工业园更好更快地发展.     

基于解释图的概率多规划识别事故分析方法研究

基于多规划识别在行为分析的多目标性、过程性与结果解释性方面的优势,提出了一种改进的概率多规划识别事故分析法,并将其应用于井下电机车撞、压人事故行为分析。通过构建事故规划库和基本事件解释图,找出顶层事故致因的所有解释集合,并定义解释集合重要度对解释集合路径进行重要程度排序,从而找到导致顶层事件发生的最佳解释集合;通过临界重要度系数验算,对解释集合重要度的排序结果进行论证,两者计算结果基本一致且后者优势明显,说明了基于解释图的多规划识别算法应用于事故分析的可行性和优越性;最后指出了此算法对处理逻辑结构复杂的大样本事故分析存在的不足及拟解决办法。     

MAPPING REGIONAL PRECIPITATION INTENSITY DURATION FREQUENCY ESTIMATES1

ABSTRACT: For regional precipitation frequency analyses, methods are needed to spatially interpolate or smooth point intensity duration frequency (IDF) estimates at gage sites for the purposes of visualization and estimation at ungaged sites. In this study to update IDF estimates for Michigan, the assumption is made that for practical purposes, the entire state may be treated as a homogeneous region in which annual maximum precipitation is identically distributed at each site apart from a site‐specific scaling factor, commonly known as the index flood. Several interpolation and smoothing techniques are evaluated for IDF estimation at ungaged sites, including trend surface analysis, thin plate splines, inverse distance weighting, and several kriging algorithms. Ordinary block kriging is recommended as a practical and objective method for smoothing the variability in the index flood values and developing isopluvial maps.     

自然灾害软风险区划图模式研究

如何表达风险值估计不准,是深层次风险区划研究的问题.将模糊风险研究引向自然灾害风险区划领域,探讨了风险值估计不准条件下自然灾害风险区划的图型模式.给出了一种带有“层次“结构的“多值的“的自然灾害风险区划图图型模式.这是应用软计算的思想和方法得到的一种自然灾害风险区划图,我们称之为自然灾害软风险区划图.自然灾害软风险区划图不仅提供了表达风险值估计不准这一信息,而且提供了风险信息的可靠性,为改进自然灾害风险区划提供一种新的思路.     

地震救灾路径优化预设计方法

在紧急地震救灾期往往来不及优选通往现场的最短路径，由于地震破坏城市的交通系统，改变其可通行性，震前又不能按照静态的最短路算法进行设计。因此，本文在进行路径可通行性破坏概率预测与控制的基础上，给出了为重点救灾目标设计最佳安全度最短路径的图与网络算法