Water Management Decision Making in the Face of Multiple Forms of Uncertainty and Risk

In the Wasatch Range Metropolitan Area of Northern Utah, water management decision makers confront multiple forms of uncertainty and risk. Adapting to these uncertainties and risks is critical for maintaining the long‐term sustainability of the region's water supply. This study draws on interview data to assess the major challenges climatic and social changes pose to Utah's water future, as well as potential solutions. The study identifies the water management adaptation decision‐making space shaped by the interacting institutional, social, economic, political, and biophysical processes that enable and constrain sustainable water management. The study finds water managers and other water actors see challenges related to reallocating water, including equitable water transfers and stakeholder cooperation, addressing population growth, and locating additional water supplies, as more problematic than the challenges posed by climate change. Furthermore, there is significant disagreement between water actors over how to best adapt to both climatic and social changes. This study concludes with a discussion of the path dependencies that present challenges to adaptive water management decision making, as well as opportunities for the pursuit of a new water management paradigm based on soft‐path solutions. Such knowledge is useful for understanding the institutional and social adaptations needed for water management to successfully address future uncertainties and risks.     

Institutional Constraints on Cost‐Effective Water Management: Selenium Contamination in Colorado's Lower Arkansas River Valley

Ground and surface water selenium (Se) contamination is problematic throughout the world, leading to harmful impacts on aquatic life, wildlife, livestock, and humans. A groundwater reactive transport model was applied to a regional‐scale irrigated groundwater system in the Lower Arkansas River Basin in southeastern Colorado to identify management practices that remediate Se contamination. The system has levels of surface water and groundwater Se concentrations exceeding the respective chronic standard and guidelines. We evaluate potential solutions by combining the transport model with an assessment of the cost to employ those practices. We use a framework common in economics and engineering fields alike, the Pareto frontier, to show the impact of four different best management practices on the tradeoffs between Se and cost objectives. We then extend that analysis to include institutional constraints that affect the economic feasibility associated with each practice. Results indicate that although water‐reducing strategies have the greatest impact on Se, they are the hardest for farmers to implement given constraints common to western water rights institutions. Therefore, our analysis shows that estimating economic and environmental tradeoffs, as is typically done with a Pareto frontier, will not provide an accurate picture of choices available to farmers where institutional constraints should also be considered.     

Impacts of Changes in Precipitation Amount and Distribution on Water Resources Studied Using a Model Rainwater Harvesting System

Water supply reliability is expected to be affected by both precipitation amount and distribution changes under recent and future climate change. We compare historical (1951‐2010) changes in annual‐mean and annual‐maximum daily precipitation in the global set of station observations from Global Historical Climatology Network and climate models from the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI‐MIP), and develop the study to 2011‐2099 for model projections under high radiative forcing scenario (RCP8.5). We develop a simple rainwater harvesting system (RWHS) model and drive it with observational and modeled precipitation. We study the changes in mean and maximum precipitation along with changes in the reliability of the model RWHS as tools to assess the impact of changes in precipitation amount and distribution on reliability of precipitation‐fed water supplies. Results show faster increase in observed maximum precipitation (10.14% per K global warming) than mean precipitation (7.64% per K), and increased reliability of the model RWHS driven by observed precipitation by an average of 0.2% per decade. The ISI‐MIP models show even faster increase in maximum precipitation compared to mean precipitation. However, they imply decreases in mean reliability, for an average 0.15% per decade. Compared to observations, climate models underestimate the increasing trends in mean and maximum precipitation and show the opposite direction of change in reliability of a model water supply system.     

Coupling of the Water Cycle with Patterns of Urban Growth in the Baltimore Metropolitan Region,United States

Regional municipal water plans typically do not recognize complex coupling patterns or that increased withdrawals in one location can result in changes in water availability in others. We investigated the interaction between urban growth and water availability in the Baltimore metropolitan region where urban growth has occurred beyond the reaches of municipal water systems into areas that rely on wells in low‐productivity Piedmont aquifers. We used the urban growth model SLEUTH and the hydrologic model ParFlow.CLM to evaluate this interaction with urban growth scenarios in 2007 and 2030. We found decreasing groundwater availability outside of the municipal water service area. Within the municipal service area we found zones of increasing storage resulting from increased urban growth, where reduced vegetation cover dominated the effect of urbanization on the hydrologic cycle. We also found areas of decreasing storage, where expanding impervious surfaces played a larger role. Although the magnitude of urban growth and change in water availability for the simulation period were generally small, there was considerable spatial heterogeneity of changes in subsurface storage. This suggests that there are locally concentrated areas of groundwater sensitivity to urban growth where water shortages could occur or where drying up of headwater streams would be more likely. The simulation approach presented here could be used to identify early warning indicators of future risk.     

Thinking inside the basin: scale in transboundary water management

While transboundary waters are widely advocated to be best managed at the basin level, practical experience in transboundary waters at the basin vis‐à‐vis other scales has not been systematically examined. To understand past experiences in transboundary water management at alternate scales, this paper: (i) determines the relative abundance of water treaties at different scales and (ii) elucidates how transboundary water law varies according to the scale to which it applies. The paper developed a scale typology with six groups, and systematically applied it to stratify transboundary water treaties. Treaty contents were then compared across scales according to the following set of parameters: primary issue area, temporal development, and important water management attributes. Results of this work reveal: (i) treaties tend to focus on hydropower and flood control at smaller scales, and organizations and policies at larger scales; (ii) a temporal trend toward treaties concluded at larger scales; and (iii) a higher proportion of treaties is at larger scales in Africa and Asia than in Europe and the Americas. These findings suggest that smaller scale cooperation may constitute a more constructive scale in which to achieve development‐oriented cooperation. Further, scope may exist to complement basin scale cooperation with cooperation at smaller scales, in order to optimize transboundary water management. In the context of basin‐wide management frameworks, Africa and Asia may benefit from greater emphasis on small‐scale transboundary water cooperation.     

水环境背景元素的时间差异变化规律

研究化学元素在枯、丰、平三个水季悬浮态、可溶态、沉积态的含量变化。以黄梨树水文站作为动态观测点,三年观测得出水化学要素、重金属元素及稀有、稀土元素变化最大的是丰水季;悬浮体相当于枯水季的２５０倍;悬浮态和可溶态元素含量（原水）同样形成丰水季＞平水季＞枯水季的趋势;而可溶态元素含量（过滤水）各个水期无大的变化差异。沉积物在三个水季中元素含量变化差异也较小,但有机质相反,含量出现枯水季＞平水季＞丰水季这样的规律。     

a study of the temporal variability of atrazine in private well water. part ii: analysis of data

In 1988, the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, along withthe University of Iowa, conducted the Statewide Rural WellWater Survey, commonly known as SWRL. A total of 686private rural drinking water wells was selected by use of aprobability sample and tested for pesticides and nitrate. A subsetof these wells, the 10% repeat wells, were additionally sampledin October, 1990 and June, 1991. Starting in November, 1991,the University of Iowa, with sponsorship from the United StatesEnvironmental Protection Agency, revisited the 10% repeat wellsto begin a study of the temporal variability of atrazine and nitratein wells. Other wells, which had originally tested positive foratrazine in SWRL but were not in the 10% population, wereadded to the study population. Temporal sampling for a year-long period began in February of 1992 and concluded in Januaryof 1993. All wells were sampled monthly, a subset was sampledweekly, and a second subset was sampled for 14 day consecutiveperiods. Of the 67 wells in the 10% population tested monthly,7 (10.4%) tested positive for atrazine at least once during theyear, and 3 (4%) were positive each of the 12 months. Theaverage concentration in the 7 wells was 0.10 µg/L. Fornitrate, 15 (22%) wells in the 10% repeat population monthlysampling were above the Maximum Contaminant Level of 10 mg/L at least once. This paper, the second of two papers on thisstudy, describes the analysis of data from the survey. The firstpaper (Lorber et al., 1997) reviews the study design, theanalytical methodologies, and development of the data base.     

三垟湿地沉积物-间隙水-上覆水界面磷形态研究

沉积物与上覆水间营养物质交换,成为导致水体发生富营养化的首要化学变迁过程.分别在三垟湿地的柑橘林(S1)、景观用地(S2)和生活用地(S3)取样,研究了沉积物-间隙水-上覆水界面磷形态以及相互关系.结果表明:(1)沉积物TP增加时,间隙水PO3-4和可溶性总磷(TDP)也增加.要削减磷在上覆水中的含量,控制间隙水PO3-4或TDP是一良策.(2)随着沉积物铁磷、铝磷的增加,间隙水PO3-4也增加.在三垟湿地沉积物中,铁磷和铝磷含量都可作为间隙水PO34-含量的指示.(3)S1、S2和S3的沉积物活性磷、间隙水TDP和上覆水TDP存在明显的浓度梯度,沉积物活性磷＞间隙水TDP＞上覆水TDP.说明在三垟湿地中,沉积物活性磷是磷释放的关键因子,而沉积物-间隙水界面则是磷释放的关键界面.     

苏南某市河流水质参数时空变异性研究

以苏南某市区320km2内的河流为研究对象,基于对高锰酸盐指数、NH3-N、TP3个主要水质参数的监测,应用地质统计学的变差函数球状模型和Kriging插值法,对河流有机污染指标、富营养化指标进行了空间插值,用以揭示其时空分布特征及变化趋势,并绘制了时空分布等值线图。结果表明,受不同区域污染物来源的差异、不同河道自身条件的差异和不同水期水生植物、入流水量、河水流动性的差异等因素的影响,研究区河流水质参数呈现出不同的时空变异特征;各水质参数污染均相当严重,尤以富营养化指标氮磷最为显著。     

固相萃取—气相色谱—质谱测定再生水中邻苯二甲酸酯类物质

探讨了一种再生水中邻苯二甲酸酯类物质的测定方法——固相萃取—气相色谱—质谱,检测了相关再生水标准中涉及的邻苯二甲酸二丁酯(DBP)和邻苯二甲酸二(2-乙基己基)酯(DEHP)两类物质。在质量浓度为20～1 000μg/L时,两类物质的回归方程的相关系数均大于0.999,检出限分别是0.060、0.002μg/L,DBP、DEHP的相对标准偏差分别为4.1%～7.4%、5.1%～6.1%。利用固相萃取技术进行预处理,平均加标回收率为96.6%、89.6%。检测了北京市4座再生水厂出水中DBP和DEHP含量,其中,DBP在1.74～5.59μg/L,低于《城市污水再生利用景观环境用水水质》(GB/T 18921—2002)规定的限值(不超过0.1mg/L),但高于《城市污水再生利用地下水回灌水质》(GB/T 19772—2005)规定的限值(不超过3μg/L);DEHP在0.42～4.93μg/L,满足GB/T 19772—2005要求(不超过8μg/L)。