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11.
Process safety is the common global language used to communicate the strategies of hazard identification, risk assessment and safety management. Process safety is identified as an integral part of process development and focuses on preventing and mitigating major process accidents such as fires, explosions, and toxic releases in process industries. Accident probability estimation is the most vital step to all quantitative risk assessment methods. Drilling process for oil is a hazardous operation and hence safety is one of the major concerns and is often measured in terms of risk. Dynamic risk assessment method is meant to reassess risk in terms of updating initial failure probabilities of events and safety barriers, as new information are made available during a specific operation. In this study, a Bayesian network model is developed to represent a well kick scenario. The concept of dynamic environment is incorporated by feeding the real-time failure probability values (observed at different time intervals) of safety barriers to the Bayesian network in order to obtain the corresponding time-dependent variations in kick consequences. This study reveals the importance of real-time monitoring of safety barrier performances and quantitatively shows the effect of deterioration of barrier performance on kick consequence probabilities. The Macondo blowout incident is used to demonstrate how early warnings in barrier probability variations could have been observed and adequately managed to prevent escalation to severe consequences. 相似文献
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基于环境空气VOCs自动监测系统中动态稀释校准仪在相同稀释比和不同稀释流量条件下,对仪器测试结果误差的影响进行研究,指出了当前环境空气VOCs自动监测普遍使用的校准仪的不足之处。选取臭氧前体物(PAMS) 57种有机化合物,以不同稀释总流量,分别测试0. 5和1. 0 nmol/mol的平均检出限以及平均回测偏差,结果显示,在输出流量1 000 m L/min时,平均检出限分别在0. 02~0. 17和0. 01~0. 10 nmol/mol;平均回测偏差在-12%~26%和-28%~10%。当总输出流量 1 000 m L/min时,多点曲线各浓度点重复性5%。 相似文献
14.
In this study, an interval-fuzzy two-stage chance-constrained integer programming (IFTCIP) method is developed for supporting
environmental management under uncertainty. The IFTCIP improves upon the existing interval, fuzzy, and two-stage programming
approaches by allowing uncertainties expressed as probability distributions, fuzzy sets, and discrete intervals to be directly
incorporated within a general mixed integer linear programming framework. It has advantages in uncertainty reflection, policy
investigation, risk assessment, and capacity-expansion analysis in comparison to the other optimization methods. Moreover,
it can help examine the risk of violating system constraints and the associated consequences. The developed method is applied
to the planning for facility expansion and waste-flow allocation within a municipal solid waste management system. Violations
of capacity constraints are allowed under a range of significance levels, which reflects tradeoffs between the system cost
and the constraint-violation risk. The results indicate that reasonable solutions for both binary and continuous variables
have been generated under different risk levels. They are useful for generating desired decision alternatives with minimized
system cost and constraint-violation risk under various environmental, economic, and system-reliability conditions. Generally,
willingness to take a higher risk of constraint violation will guarantee a lower system cost; a strong desire to acquire a
lower risk will run into a higher system cost. 相似文献
15.
Zagonari F 《Journal of environmental management》2008,88(4):796-804
In this paper, a dynamic model is developed in which coastal quality can be improved, restored, or maintained by two distinct user groups; this is done by identifying a context that ensures an increase (or a greater increase) in coastal quality in terms of specific features that characterise the user groups. The results demonstrate that integrated coastal management is always better than non-integrated management. Moreover, when there is a low degree of interest in maintaining the coastal use over time, only integrated community-based (CB) coastal management will increase the coastal quality. Even when the interest in maintaining the coastal use over time is high, an integrated CB approach is preferred if the willingness to pay for coastal improvements is great and the marginal inefficiency of investments in coastal improvements is low, because the coastal quality improves to a greater extent; if not, only an integrated top-down (TD) approach to coastal management will increase the coastal quality. These results suggest that developing countries should always adopt a CB approach; in contrast, developed countries should adopt a CB approach where local stakeholders attach direct values to the coastal quality, and adopt a TD approach where the general population attaches indirect (option or existence) values to coastal quality. 相似文献
16.
We evaluated the exposure to pesticides from the consumption of passion fruits and subsequent human health risks by combining several methods: (i) experimental field studies including the determination of pesticide residues in/on passion fruits, (ii) dynamic plant uptake modelling, and (iii) human health risk assessment concepts. Eight commonly used pesticides were applied onto passion fruits cultivated in Colombia. Pesticide concentrations were measured periodically (between application and harvest) in whole fruits and fruit pulp. Measured concentrations were compared with predicted residues calculated with a dynamic and crop-specific pesticide uptake model, namely dynamiCROP. The model accounts for the time between pesticide application and harvest, the time between harvest and consumption, the amount of spray deposition on plant surfaces, uptake processes, dilution due to crop growth, degradation in plant components, and reduction due to food processing (peeling). Measured and modelled residues correspond well (r2 = 0.88-0.99), with all predictions falling within the 90% confidence interval of the measured values. A mean error of 43% over all studied pesticides was observed between model estimates and measurements. The fraction of pesticide applied during cultivation that is eventually ingested by humans is on average 10−4-10−6, depending on the time period between application and ingestion and the processing step considered. Model calculations and intake fractions via fruit consumption based on experimental data corresponded well for all pesticides with a deviation of less than a factor of 2. Pesticide residues in fruits measured at recommended harvest dates were all below European Maximum Residue Limits (MRLs) and therefore do not indicate any violation of international regulatory thresholds. 相似文献
17.
Wakefield R Tyler AN McDonald P Atkin PA Gleizon P Gilvear D 《Journal of environmental radioactivity》2011,102(3):252-261
High spatial and temporal resolution airborne imagery were acquired for the Ribble Estuary, North West England in 1997 and 2003, to assess the application of time-series airborne remote sensing to quantify total suspended sediment and radionuclide fluxes during a flood and ebb tide sequence. Concomitant measurements of suspended particulate matter (SPM) and water column turbidity were obtained during the time-series image acquisition for the flood and ebb tide sequence on the 17th July 2003 to verify the assumption of a vertically well mixed estuary and thus justifying the vertical extrapolation of spatially integrated estimate of surface SPM. The 137Cs activity concentrations were calculated from a relatively stable relationship between SPM and 137Cs for the Ribble Estuary. Total estuary wide budgets of sediment and 137Cs were obtained by combining the image-derived estimates of surface SPM and 137Cs with estimates of water volume from a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model (VERSE) developed for the Ribble Estuary. These indicate that around 10,000 tonnes of sediment and 2.72 GBq of 137Cs were deposited over the tidal sequence monitored in July 2003. This compared favourably with bed height elevation change estimated from field work. An uncertainty analysis on the total sediment and 137Cs flux yielded a total budget of the order of 40% on the final estimate. The results represent a novel approach to providing a spatially integrated estimate of the total net sediment and radionuclide flux in an intertidal environment over a flood and ebb tide sequence. 相似文献
18.
密闭爆炸容器实验研究及数值模拟 总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7
实验研究了三种结构的爆炸容器在爆炸载荷下的响应情况;并通过二维多流体欧拉程序对二维爆炸场进行了数值模拟.在这个基础上用NIKE-2D对壳体的动态响应进行数值模拟。 相似文献
19.
大空间火灾烟气流动的动态显示研究 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
讨论了火灾烟气流动过程的计算机动态模拟方法。利用Delphi可视化编程工具,建立了一个融区域模拟计算和计算机动态显示于一体的火灾发展的模拟软件,并以中国科技大学的大空间建筑火灾实验厅为对象,对典型火灾羽流及烟气层的发展过程进行了动态显示。 相似文献
20.