How temperature and habitat quality affect parasitoid lifetime reproductive success—A simulation study

Adult parasitoid females lay their eggs in or on host insects. Most species are incapable of de novo lipogenesis as adults, and lipids accumulated during the larval stage are allocated either to egg production or to adult survival. Lipid consumption increases with distance covered by the parasitoids and thus with the distance between available hosts within a habitat. Temperature should affect parasitoid fitness because it changes the constraint imposed by a limited reserve of lipids and because it influences behaviour. Climate change involves both an increase in average temperature and an increased frequency of extreme weather such as heat waves. We investigated how the predicted increase of temperature will affect parasitoid fitness and how this depends on habitat parameters (spatial distribution of hosts and lipid cost of habitat exploitation). We studied optimal behaviour and calculated fitness at different temperatures and in different habitats using a stochastic dynamic programming model for pro-ovigenic parasitoids (which mature all their eggs before becoming adult). We show that an increase in temperature decreases fitness of parasitoids adapted to lower temperatures. This decrease in fitness depends on habitat quality. In field conditions (assuming small costs of intra-patch foraging), the loss of fitness should be larger in habitats with high inter-patch distance and in habitats with a more aggregated distribution of hosts. The foraging behaviour of parasitoids is also affected; at higher temperature we show that intra-patch foraging becomes less efficient, and patch residence times are longer.     

LNG accident dynamic simulation: Application for hazardous consequence reduction

The evaluation of exclusion (hazard) zones around the LNG stations is essential for risk assessment in LNG industry. In this study, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations have been conducted for the two potential hazards, LNG flammable vapor dispersion and LNG pool fire radiation, respectively, to evaluate the exclusion zones. The spatial and temporal distribution of hazard in complex spill scenario has been taken into account in the CFD model. Experimental data from Falcon and Montoir field tests have been used to validate the simulation results. With the valid CFD model, the mitigation of the vapor dispersion with spray water curtains and the pool fire with high expansion foam were investigated. The spray water curtains were studied as a shield to prevent LNG vapor dispersing, and two types of water spray curtain, flat and cone, were analyzed to show their performance for reduction and minimization of the hazard influencing distance and area. The high expansion foam firefighting process was studied with dynamic simulation of the foam action, and the characteristics of the foam action on the reduction of LNG vaporization rate, vapor cloud and flame size as well as the thermal radiation hazard were analyzed and discussed.     

Assessment of nitrogen leaching from arable land in large river basins: Part II: regionalisation using fuzzy rule based modelling

This study deals with fuzzy rule based modelling of nitrogen (N)-leaching from arable land. Main purpose is the elaboration of a method, which allows dynamical regionalisation of results from process-based models for large regions and can be efficiently included in metamodels or decision support systems for rapid integrated assessment of water resources. The paper is the second part of a two-part paper. In the first paper the distributed ecohydrological model SWIM had been applied to calculate and analyse nitrogen dynamics in arable soils for a set of representative natural and management conditions in the Saale River basin (Ecol. Model. (in press)). Here, in the second paper the results from those simulation experiments are used to define, train and validate fuzzy rule systems for the estimation of N-leaching. Nine fuzzy rule systems, specific for nine soil classes, were created from the simulation experiments, representing the conditions for the whole Saale River basin. The fuzzy rule systems operate on monthly time steps and consist of 15 rules and seven input variables each, which are compiled from time series of precipitation, percolation and evapotranspiration as well as from information about fertilizer and crop specific nitrogen uptake. Simulated annealing as a non-linear discrete optimisation method is used for automatic rule assessment. Validation of the fuzzy rule systems, carried out by split sampling of 30-year simulation period, shows satisfactory performance on an annual basis and good performance on the long-term basis with average correlation between SWIM-simulated and fuzzy rule-estimated N-leaching values of 0.78 and 0.94, respectively.     

CASTEX连续铸挤的侧向扩展挤压挤压力计算

以金属铅为坯料进行侧向扩展挤压模拟CASTEX机的径向扩展挤压.由变形流动规律建立简化力学模型推导挤压力计算公式并进行验证.     

浅谈动态工业源填报易出现的问题

按照国家环保部统一部署,2009年度全面开展了污染源普查数据更新调查工作。作为污染源调查的指导员,全面参加了动态更新调查工作,发现在填报过程中易出现问题的项目不少,文章总结、归纳了工业源填报易出现问题的项目,可供今后普查工作参考。     

大庆石油炼化厂废水深加工回用工程研究

为实现十一五大庆炼化石油节能减排,扩大再生产需要的高质量循环水和锅炉用水需要,用二次生化后排放污水经碟式过滤器——超滤—高级氧化——动态活性炭——动态生物膜沙滤+反渗透组合工艺处理废水回用生产。该工程规模600t/h,设计循环补充水量280t/h,锅炉用水补充量250t/h,是典型污水工厂管道化处理工程。工艺先进,设备板块简单,适应石油炼化、煤化工、钢铁、铜业电厂和城市污水深加工项目。     

Consequences of correlations between habitat modifications and negative impact of climate change for regional species survival

While several empirical and theoretical studies have clearly shown the negative effects of climate or landscape changes on population and species survival only few of them addressed combined and correlated consequences of these key environmental drivers. This also includes positive landscape changes such as active habitat management and restoration to buffer the negative effects of deteriorating climatic conditions. In this study, we apply a conceptual spatial modelling approach based on functional types to explore the effects of both positive and negative correlations between changes in habitat and climate conditions on the survival of spatially structured populations. We test the effect of different climate and landscape change scenarios on four different functional types that represent a broad spectrum of species characterised by their landscape level carrying capacity, the local population turnover rates at the patch level (K-strategies vs. r-strategies) and dispersal characterstics. As expected, simulation results show that correlated landscape and climatic changes can accelerate (in case of habitat loss or degradation) or slow down (in case of habitat gain or improvement) regional species extinction. However, the strength of the combined changes depends on local turnover at the patch level, the overall landscape capacity of the species, and its specific dispersal characteristics. Under all scenarios of correlated changes in habitat and climate conditions we found the highest sensitivity for functional types representing species with a low landscape capacity but a high population growth rate and a strong density regulation causing a high turnover at the local patch level.The relative importance of habitat loss or habitat degradation, in combination with climate deterioration, differed among the functional types. However, an increase in regional capacity revealed a similar response pattern: For all types, habitat improvement led to higher survival times than habitat gain, i.e. the establishment of new habitat patches. This suggests that improving local habitat quality at a regional scale is a more promising conservation strategy under climate change than implementing new habitat patches. This conceptual modelling study provides a general framework to better understand and support the management of populations prone to complex environmental changes.     

环境评价Petri网理论可移植性的方法学研究

从复杂系统、开放式巨系统仿真的角度分析,环境影响评价工程分析项目的系统属性为离散事件动态系统,而污染物的产生、排放过程属于随机过程,所以,需要采用复杂系统分析的方法对现有的环评工程分析理论进行改进。Petri网理论是分析离散事件动态系统的方法之一,其特点也非常适合对现今的环评工程分析方法进行改进。将Petri网的基础理论与环评理论相融合,使Petri网理论拥有了系统的环评学释义,进而为将Petri网理论引入环评科学开辟了道路。     

辽宁省大气湿沉降化学特征分析

通过分析降水酸度、化学特征和湿沉降量等酸沉降控制指标,得出2009年辽宁省大气湿沉降化学特征。研究发现,辽宁省总体上酸雨污染并不严重,但区域性污染突出;降水化学污染严重,呈地域分布不平衡特征,重污染城市位于辽宁省西部和中部;湿沉降量的空间分布与降水化学污染不同,沉降量大的城市位于东部和南部沿海,所有离子湿沉降量最大值均出现在夏季。     

崇明东滩滨海围垦湿地CO_2通量贡献区分析

利用通量贡献区模型(FSAM)对崇明东滩滨海围垦湿地生长季和非生长季的CO2通量贡献区(Footprint)进行分析,结果表明:(1)135°~225°方向为生长季主风向,而315°~45°方向为非生长季主风向。(2)在生长季主风向,大气稳定状态下的Footprint函数取得最大值时的位置(Xm)为96.84 m,90%的通量信息来源于迎风向41.04~378.20 m、垂直迎风向-79.73~79.73 m范围内;而大气不稳定状态下的Xm为75.28 m,90%的通量信息来源于迎风向33.83~257.07 m、垂直迎风向-82.29~82.29 m范围内。在非生长季主风向,大气稳定状态下的Xm为82.68 m,90%的通量信息来源于迎风向36.73~282.49 m、垂直迎风向-120.31~120.31 m范围内;而大气不稳定状态下的Xm为56.49 m,90%的通量信息来源于迎风向25.90~179.90 m、垂直迎风向-76.30~76.30 m范围内。(3)非主风向贡献区分布与主风向有相似的规律。在生长季和非生长季,大气稳定状态下的贡献区面积均要大于大气不稳定状态下的贡献区面积;而在相同的大气稳定状态下,生长季的贡献区面积要大于非生长季。(4)在非生长季,主风向观测的垂直迎风向范围要远大于其他风向,这可能和该条件下的横向风速脉动标准差与摩擦风速的比值(σv/u*)较大有关。