Dynamic risk assessment for underground gas storage facilities based on Bayesian network

Loss of the underground gas storage process can have significant effects, and risk analysis is critical for maintaining the integrity of the underground gas storage process and reducing potential accidents. This paper focuses on the dynamic risk assessment method for the underground gas storage process. First, the underground gas storage process data is combined to create a database, and the fault tree of the underground gas storage facility is built by identifying the risk factors of the underground gas storage facility and mapping them into a Bayesian network. To eliminate the subjectivity in the process of determining the failure probability level of basic events, fuzzy numbers are introduced to determine the prior probability of the Bayesian network. Then, causal and diagnostic reasoning is performed on the Bayesian network to determine the failure level of the underground gas storage facilities. Based on the rate of change of prior and posterior probabilities, sensitivity and impact analysis are combined to determine the significant risk factors and possible failure paths. In addition, the time factor is introduced to build a dynamic Bayesian network to perform dynamic assessment and analysis of underground gas storage facilities. Finally, the dynamic risk assessment method is applied to underground gas storage facilities in depleted oil and gas reservoirs. A dynamic risk evaluation model for underground gas storage facilities is built to simulate and validate the dynamic risk evaluation method based on the Bayesian network. The results show that the proposed method has practical value for improving underground gas storage process safety.     

Influence of sewage culvert cover plate thickness on dynamic response and damage of the cover plate under gas explosion

In order to address the risk of combustible gas explosions in sewage culverts, a numerical model was established using ANSYS/LS-DYNA software. The model consisted of a culvert and a cover plate, and was used to study the effect of cover plate thickness (ranging from 0.08 m to 0.12 m) on the dynamic response and damage of the structure under explosive loads. The results indicated that, during the loading negative pressure stage, the equivalent stress peak value of the central monitoring unit of the cover plate first increased and then decreased with increasing cover plate thickness. Additionally, the maximum principal stress peak value first decreased and then increased, while the maximum shear stress peak value first increased and then decreased. During the loading positive pressure stage, the maximum principal strain peak value of the monitoring unit decreased overall with increasing cover plate thickness. However, the equivalent plastic strain peak value initially increased and then decreased gradually. The equivalent strain indicated that plastic damage occurred in the cover plate. Beyond a thickness of 0.11 m, increasing the cover thickness did not appear to enhance its resistance to plastic damage. The damage analysis revealed that as cover plate thickness increased, the peak displacement and velocity of the monitoring unit continued to decrease, while the overall stability and explosive resistance of the cover plate increased. Additionally, the number of damaged fragments decreased. However, once the cover plate thickness reached 0.11 m, the bonding performance of the reinforced concrete structure had been fully developed, increasing the thickness of the cover plate no longer had a significant impact on the explosive resistance of the cover plate.     

防灾工程动态投资决策分析

本文应用最优控制理论对作者在文献[1]中所建立的两个防灾工程多变量动态投资决策模型进行了求解和理论分析。在一些基本符合工程实际的假设下得到了模型的解析解以及一些有意义的结果。     

动态膜压法测定江、污混合水体中有机物含量的探讨

用双驱动动态膜压仪测定江、污混合水中有机物含量。通过测定白龙港污水和长江水混合后的膜压和滞回环面积，用它们与相应的经典法CODCr作图，获得了滞回环面积和CODCr之间良好地线性关系，表明用动态膜压法可快速测定混合水中的有机物含量，不须加任何试剂，不会产生二次污染。同时，对实验结果进行了初步的机理探讨。     

防灾工程动态投资决策方法初探

本文提出了防灾工程的抗力、灾损度和灾害的灾度、灾害势以及动态决策准则等概念,基于现代控制理论,初步建立了防灾工程动态投资决策的一般方法,并对其进行了理论分析和研究。这里的决策包括防灾工程的初始投资(或设防水平)决策及其防灾规划期(或寿命期)内的防灾减灾维护投资(或维护水平)决策.文中还给出了算例,对上述方法进行了应用。算例结果表明,本文提出的防灾工程动态投资决策方法具有比较显著的经济效益。     

铁路示范路段滑坡动态分析系统

本文以成昆线乌斯河-普雄为示范路段,以该段滑坡的发育、分布规律及其对建筑物影响为研究对象;利用开发dBASE、AutoCAD、Idrisi等计算机辅助软件,初步建立了滑坡动态分析系统以实现滑坡特征分析及与环境背景的映射分析,从中揭示出示范段内滑坡发育的控制因素,为开展滑坡致灾预报奠定了基础。     

Scenario derivation and consequence evaluation of dust explosion accident based on dynamic Bayesian network

In order to clarify the correlation between the evolution path of dust explosion accidents and emergency decision-making, and to accurately predict the disaster damage levels of various disaster bearing bodies. This paper extracts 56 key scenario elements from four aspects, namely state, answer, goal and environment, based on the analysis of typical dust explosion accident cases. At the same time, a general scenario evolution path of dust explosion accident is constructed. Using fuzzy number set theory and dynamic Bayes joint probability model, the accurate solution of scenario state probability was realized. With the help of accident cases and dynamic Bayes approach, the dust explosion consequence prediction index system and evaluation criteria were constructed, covering factors such as dust explosion intensity, casualties, direct economic losses, equipment damage, building damage, environmental damage and other factors. A polyethylene wax dust explosion accident in a city of China was used to verify the dust explosion accident scenario evolution model and consequences prediction model. The predicted results were in good agreement with the actual damage of various carriers of the accident, which indicated that the model could be used for dust explosion accident prediction and disaster loss prediction. The research results provided reference and technical support for the prediction of dust explosion accident evolution direction, emergency aid measures decision and deployment, disaster damage prediction and evaluation.     

Dynamic pressure induced by a methane–air explosion in a coal mine

The hazardous effect of dynamic pressure and strong gas flows induced by a methane–air mixture explosion in underground coal mines is studied. The dynamic pressure effect of a methane–air explosion was analyzed by numerical simulation, in a duct and tunnel. Compared to the overpressure generated by an explosion that can act on a body, the dynamic pressure caused by the high-speed flow of the gaseous combustion products can cause serious damage as well. At the structural opening of a coal mine, the destruction caused by the dynamic pressure induced by a methane–air explosion is more serious than the overpressure. For a tube or tunnel partially filled by a methane–air mixture, the dynamic pressure is lower than the overpressure in the region occupied by the flammable mixture. Beyond the premixed region, the dynamic pressure is of the same order of magnitude as the overpressure.     

潮汐河流动态水环境容量计算方法探讨

基于目前采用的静态水态水质数学模型计算河流平均水环境容量的方法，难于满足感潮河流的动态水环境容量时变过程，且计算精度不高的情况，提出了潮汐河流动态水环境容量的计算方法和计算步骤，以满足感潮河流水质管理规划的需要。通过对某一感潮河流实际计算应用，表明这一新的计算方法在理论上与实践上是可行的。     

Model experiment on the dynamic process of oil leakage from the double hull tanker

This paper presents an experimental investigation on oil leakage from the double hull tanker (DHT). It is designed to explore the dynamic process of oil leakage from bottom-rupture hole of DHT. The experimental test shows the leakage resistance mechanism of ballast tank space. The behavior of oil leakage from damaged DHT and dynamic features of flow in the overall process are demonstrated from experimental results. The overall process of oil leakage is divided into free-leakage and resistance-leakage stage according to the corresponding power to study the dynamic features of oil-water flow inside or outside the tank. The corresponding dominated factors of oil leakage in different stage are also pointed out, and the unsteady Bernoulli’s equation is used to verify experimental results. Meanwhile, viscous effect in leakage process is discussed and the importance of hydrodynamic features associated with the mechanism of oil leakage is explored from experimental results.