Scenario derivation and consequence evaluation of dust explosion accident based on dynamic Bayesian network

In order to clarify the correlation between the evolution path of dust explosion accidents and emergency decision-making, and to accurately predict the disaster damage levels of various disaster bearing bodies. This paper extracts 56 key scenario elements from four aspects, namely state, answer, goal and environment, based on the analysis of typical dust explosion accident cases. At the same time, a general scenario evolution path of dust explosion accident is constructed. Using fuzzy number set theory and dynamic Bayes joint probability model, the accurate solution of scenario state probability was realized. With the help of accident cases and dynamic Bayes approach, the dust explosion consequence prediction index system and evaluation criteria were constructed, covering factors such as dust explosion intensity, casualties, direct economic losses, equipment damage, building damage, environmental damage and other factors. A polyethylene wax dust explosion accident in a city of China was used to verify the dust explosion accident scenario evolution model and consequences prediction model. The predicted results were in good agreement with the actual damage of various carriers of the accident, which indicated that the model could be used for dust explosion accident prediction and disaster loss prediction. The research results provided reference and technical support for the prediction of dust explosion accident evolution direction, emergency aid measures decision and deployment, disaster damage prediction and evaluation.     

Dynamic pressure induced by a methane–air explosion in a coal mine

The hazardous effect of dynamic pressure and strong gas flows induced by a methane–air mixture explosion in underground coal mines is studied. The dynamic pressure effect of a methane–air explosion was analyzed by numerical simulation, in a duct and tunnel. Compared to the overpressure generated by an explosion that can act on a body, the dynamic pressure caused by the high-speed flow of the gaseous combustion products can cause serious damage as well. At the structural opening of a coal mine, the destruction caused by the dynamic pressure induced by a methane–air explosion is more serious than the overpressure. For a tube or tunnel partially filled by a methane–air mixture, the dynamic pressure is lower than the overpressure in the region occupied by the flammable mixture. Beyond the premixed region, the dynamic pressure is of the same order of magnitude as the overpressure.     

潮汐河流动态水环境容量计算方法探讨

基于目前采用的静态水态水质数学模型计算河流平均水环境容量的方法，难于满足感潮河流的动态水环境容量时变过程，且计算精度不高的情况，提出了潮汐河流动态水环境容量的计算方法和计算步骤，以满足感潮河流水质管理规划的需要。通过对某一感潮河流实际计算应用，表明这一新的计算方法在理论上与实践上是可行的。     

Model experiment on the dynamic process of oil leakage from the double hull tanker

This paper presents an experimental investigation on oil leakage from the double hull tanker (DHT). It is designed to explore the dynamic process of oil leakage from bottom-rupture hole of DHT. The experimental test shows the leakage resistance mechanism of ballast tank space. The behavior of oil leakage from damaged DHT and dynamic features of flow in the overall process are demonstrated from experimental results. The overall process of oil leakage is divided into free-leakage and resistance-leakage stage according to the corresponding power to study the dynamic features of oil-water flow inside or outside the tank. The corresponding dominated factors of oil leakage in different stage are also pointed out, and the unsteady Bernoulli’s equation is used to verify experimental results. Meanwhile, viscous effect in leakage process is discussed and the importance of hydrodynamic features associated with the mechanism of oil leakage is explored from experimental results.     

起重机在特殊工况下的静刚度与动刚度安全性分析

通过对一台桥式电磁起重机静刚度和动刚度的理论计算,以及对其主梁的探伤检查,分析了桥式起重机在特殊工况下的静刚度和动刚度,指出了在设计时应考虑的安全性问题。     

Decision making with option pricing and dynamic programming: development and application

In this study, an option pricing model and a dynamic programming model are developed. These models contribute to the improvement of the decision making process in two respects. First, these models allow for the own growth rate of mining costs to be incorporated into the analysis. Second, these models are developed to estimate the satisfactory gross revenue for investing, so that these models are helpful in analyzing multi-metal mines.The two models are applied to estimate the satisfactory revenue for investing in the Carlin east gold mine, Nevada, USA. The satisfactory revenue estimated by the option pricing model is found to be $42.2M, while that estimated by the dynamic programming model is found to be $44.4M. Since the revenue calculated on the basis of the current conditions is $36M, then the decision by option pricing and dynamic programming is to wait and not to invest now. Despite the difference between the two models in estimating and applying the discount rate, the two models generate the same decision.     

城市河流重金属元素对降雨径流的动态响应

以海口市美舍河市区河段为研究对象,于2020年雨季分别采集降雨径流以及降雨径流汇入后的河流瞬时水样,测定并分析主要重金属元素的浓度及其变化规律,探讨其对降雨径流的动态响应。研究结果表明：降雨径流对河流可溶态污染元素质量浓度的贡献不突出,对可溶态锌（Zn）、砷（As）、镉（Cd）、硒（Se）具有一定稀释作用,排水口下游 3 m处是可溶态铬(Cr）、锰（Mn）、钴（Co）对降雨径流响应最显著区域;降雨径流对各悬浮态元素质量浓度贡献较大,排水口下游7 m处是绝大多数悬浮态元素对降〖JP〗雨径流响应最显著区域;Mn、Zn、Cr、镍（Ni）、As、Co、Cd 7种元素的总质量浓度对降雨径流的动态响应表现为先上升后下降。其中,排水口下游3 m处是Cr、As总质量浓度对降雨径流响应最显著区段,排水口下游7 m处是Mn、Co、Ni、Zn及Cd总质量浓度对降雨径流响应最显著区段。降雨径流对河流主要污染元素年输入总量估算结果表明,海口市建成区降雨径流向美舍河等受纳水体直接年输入量最大的是Mn和Zn,其次是Cr、As、Ni,Se与Cd的年输入量最小。     

Flame-propagation behavior and a dynamic model for the thermal-radiation effects in coal-dust explosions

To reveal the flame-propagation behavior and the thermal-radiation effects during coal-dust explosions, two coal-dust clouds were tested in a semi-enclosed vertical combustion tube. A high-speed video camera and a thermal infrared imaging device were used to record the flame-propagation process and the thermal-radiation effects of the fireball at the combustion-tube outlet. The flame propagated more quickly and with a higher temperature in the more volatile coal-dust cloud. The coal-dust concentration also significantly affected the propagation behavior of the combustion zone. When the coal-dust concentration was increased, the flame-propagation velocity and the fireball temperature increased before decreasing overall. Based on the experimental results, a dynamic model of the thermal radiation was employed to describe the changes in the fireballs quantitatively and to estimate the thermal-radiation effects during coal-dust explosions.     

Threshold management in a coupled economic–ecological system

Economic analysis of optimal ecosystem management in the presence of a threshold has typically ignored the potential for induced behavioral responses. This paper contributes to the literature on non-convex ecosystem management by considering the implications of a particular behavioral response in a regional economy – that of amenity-led growth – to changes in ecosystem services generated by a lake ecosystem subject to a eutrophication threshold. The essential policy challenge is to achieve optimal levels of lake nutrients and urbanization given that improvements to water quality will induce additional migration and urbanization in the region with attendant ecological impacts. We show that policies that ignore the recursive relationship between urbanization and water quality unintentionally exacerbate boom-bust cycles of regional growth and decline and risk pushing the system towards long-run economic decline. In contrast, the optimal policy accounts for the behavioral feedbacks to improved ecosystem services, and balances regional growth and ecological degradation.     

An approach to calculating allowable watershed pollutant loads

To improve the management of discharge pollutants loads in the reservoirs’ watershed, an approach of the allowable pollutants loads calculation and its allocation, based on the water environment model, was proposed. Establishment of the approach framework was described at first. Under the guidance of this framework, two major steps were as follows: modeling and scenario analysis were involved and should be applied to support the decision of discharge loads management; Environmental Fluid Dynamic Code (EFDC) model was selected as the kernel model in this framework. In modeling step, spatial discretization for establishing cell map in model, data preprocessing, parameter calibration and uncertainty analysis (which is considered as the significantly relevant factor of the margin of safety (MOS)), were conducted. As a result of the research, the model-based approach presented as a combination of estimation and precise calculation, which contributed to scenario analysis step. Some integrated modules, such as scenario simulation, result analysis and plan optimization were implemented as cycles in the scenario analysis. Finally, allowable pollutant loads under various conditions were calculated. The Chaihe Reservoir in Liaoning Province, China was used as a case study for an application of the approach described above. Results of the Chaihe reservoir water quality simulation, show good agreement with field data and demonstrated that the approach used in the present study provide an efficient and appropriate methodology for pollutant load allocation.