Dynamic modeling and bifurcation analysis for the methyl isocyanate hydrolysis reaction

The aim of this work was to characterize the methyl isocyanate hydrolysis reaction and to identify its operational criteria. The parametric sensitivity and dynamic stability methodologies were performed at the Bhopal disaster circumstances, over the relevant operating parameter space. Stable and unstable conditions, bifurcations points, turning points and oscillatory behavior were determined. The combined methodology give useful guidance on the operative conditions selection and the appropriate strategy to overcome hazardous situations. The obtained results demonstrated high sensitivity to small perturbations (thermal runaway) and prevalent oscillatory behavior. Moreover, the following critical parameters for the studied dynamic system were defined: the inverse residence time of 1.5700103 and the heat transfer coefficient of 752.394.     

基于RS的徐州市区生态环境动态监测与评价分析

近年来,随着城市化进程推,城市生态环境正逐步恶化。徐州作为老矿业城市,情况尤其不为乐观,以徐州市区为例作生态评价分析。按照代表性、可操作性、适应性、可比性和方便性原则,选取了植被覆盖度、生物丰度、水网密度、人均绿地面积、城市环境污染负荷指数和环境质量综合指数作为评价指标来进行生态环境质量指数的计算。根据评价指标,选用1994年、2000年和2007年三个时相徐州市TM影像,对土地利用、河流水库、植被、人均绿地等方面进行遥感动态监测,然后对该地区13年来生态环境演变做了定量评价分析。评价结果表明,徐州市区生态环境质量由1994年的良好水平退化为一般水平,且有逐年下降恶化趋势,这与该区城市化进程一致。     

Release flux of mercury from different environmental surfaces in Chongqing, China

An investigation was conducted to estimate mercury emission to the atmosphere from different environmental surfaces and to assess its contribution to the local mercury budget in Chongqing, China. Mercury flux was measured using dynamic flux chamber (DFC) at six soil sites of three different areas (mercury polluted area, farmland and woodland) and four water surfaces from August 2003 to April 2004. The mercury emission fluxes were 3.5 ± 1.2–8.4 ± 2.5 ng m⁻² h⁻¹ for three shaded forest sites, 85.8 ± 32.4 ng m⁻² h⁻¹ for farming field, 12.3 ± 9.8–733.8 ± 255 ng m⁻² h⁻¹ for grassland sites, and 5.9 ± 12.6–618.6 ± 339 ng m⁻² h⁻¹ for water surfaces. Mercury exchange fluxes were generally higher from air/water surfaces than from air/soil surfaces. The mercury negative fluxes were found in tow soil sites at overcast days (mean = −6.4 ± 1.5 ng m⁻² h⁻¹). The diurnal and seasonal variations of mercury flux were observed in all sites. The mercury emission responded positively to the solar radiation, but negatively to the relative humidity. The mercury flux from air/soil surfaces was significantly correlated with soil temperature, which was well described by an Arrhenius-type expression with activation energy of 31.1 kcal mol⁻¹. The annual mercury emission to the atmosphere from land surface is about 1.787 t of mercury in Chongqing.     

On modelling the global copper mining rates,market supply,copper price and the end of copper reserves

The world supply and turnover of copper was modelled using simple empirical estimates and a COPPER systems dynamics model developed for this study. The model combines mining, trade markets, price mechanisms, population dynamics, use in society and waste as well as recycling, into a whole world system. The degree of sustainability and resource time horizon was estimated using four different methods including (1) burn-off rates, (2) peak discovery early warning, (3) Hubbert's production model, and (4) COPPER, a system dynamics model. The ultimately recoverable reserves (URR) have been estimated using different sources that converge around 2800 million tonne, where about 800 million tonne have already been mined, and 2000 million tonne remain. The different methods independently suggest peak copper mine production in the near future. The model was run for a longer period to cover all systems dynamics and delays. The peak production estimates are in a narrow window in time, from 2031 to 2042, with the best model estimate in 2034, or 21 years from the date of writing. In a longer perspective, taking into account price and recycling, the supply of copper to society is estimated to run out sometime after 2400. The outputs from all models put focus on the importance of copper recycling so that society can become more sustainable with respect to copper supply.