高等级公路车速管理研究

高等级公路交通事故中约 1/ 3与车速直接相关。为保证高等级公路行车安全 ,车速管理非常必要。从我国高等级公路管理现状出发 ,根据对我国高等级公路车辆实际运行特征和运行车速的实地调查 ,笔者对高等级公路车速限制的设定、发布及实施进行了研究 ,提出了应根据公路、交通、气象、历史事故数据等条件动态确定限制车速的概念 ,并就高等级公路车速管理的实施进行了探讨 ,重点强调了道路设计和交通安全文化建设在实施车速管理中的重要性。     

矿井外因火灾计算机控制及有待解决的若干问题

针对矿井外因火灾,评价了计算机技术在矿井火灾防治应用中的研究现状,阐述了发展矿井火灾计算机控制技术的重要意义及其应用前景。同时,指出了进一步发展矿井火灾计算机控制技术中有待解决的问题     

移动Ad hoc网络路由协议的安全性分析与对策

移动Ad hoc网络是一种自组织、多跳的无线网络,由于其独特性能使移动Adhoc网络面临着比现有网络具有更大的安全挑战,其中路由安全对该网络的安全性起着关键性的作用。在介绍移动Ad hoc网络主要路由协议及其特点的基础上,笔者深入研究了移动Ad hoc网络路由协议中存在的黑洞、拒绝服务等安全漏洞;详细分析了几种主要的Ad hoc路由协议的安全性增强方案;根据不同路由协议的特点,分别提出了利用单向散列链改进距离矢量路由协议安全性的两种方案;分析了一种用于改善源路由协议安全性的方案的可行性。最后,指出了移动Ad hoc网络路由协议安全性问题的进一步改进和研究方向。     

Modeling the Influence of Dynamic Zoning of Forest Harvesting on Ecological Succession in a Northern Hardwoods Landscape

Dynamic zoning (systematic alteration in the spatial and temporal allocation of even-aged forest management practices) has been proposed as a means to change the spatial pattern of timber harvest across a landscape to maximize forest interior habitat while holding timber harvest levels constant. Simulation studies have established that dynamic zoning strategies produce larger tracts of interior, closed canopy forest, thus increasing the value of these landscapes for interior-dependent wildlife. We used the simulation model LANDIS to examine how the implementation of a dynamic zoning strategy would change trajectories of ecological succession in the Great Divide Ranger District of the Chequamegon–Nicolet National Forest in northern Wisconsin over 500 years. The components of dynamic zoning strategies (number of zones in a scenario and the length of the hiatus between successive entries into zones) and their interaction had highly significant impacts on patterns of forest succession. Dynamic zoning scenarios with more zones and shorter hiatus lengths increased the average amount of the forest dominated by early successional aspen (Populus sp.). Dynamic zoning scenarios with two zones produced more late successional mature northern hardwoods than scenarios with four zones. Dynamic zoning scenarios with very short (30 years) or very long (120 years) hiatus lengths resulted in more late successional mature northern hardwoods than scenarios with intermediate hiatus lengths (60 and 90 years). However, none of the dynamic scenarios produced as much late successional mature northern hardwoods as the static alternative. Furthermore, the amounts of all habitat types in all dynamic zoning scenarios fluctuated greatly in time and space relative to static alternatives, which could negatively impact wildlife species that require a stable amount of habitat above some minimum critical threshold. Indeed, implementing dynamic zoning scenarios of different designs would have both positive and negative effects on wildlife species and for other objectives of forest management.     

铁路安全管理综合评价的一种新方法

针对铁路安全管理的现状 ,从实际应用角度出发 ,笔者提出了一种新的综合评价方法———动态集成综合分析评价法。该方法能把铁路安全管理定性与定量信息、历史事故信息与管理现状信息、安全管理措施与专家咨询意见有机地结合起来 ,构成一种动态目标评价体系 ,从而对铁路安全管理的多个方面进行综合评判 ,因此 ,能客观地反映了铁路安全管理的现状。     

废物热解焚烧工艺设备选择的技术要点

主要介绍了热解氧化焚烧的概念及原理,指出了实现热解氧化焚烧的关键因素。根据热解焚烧的控制过程,详细地介绍了静态热解和动态热解的工艺特点,并对实现热解焚烧所采用的焚烧炉进行了比较及适用性分析,提出了废物热解焚烧工艺的技术要点。     

水环境质量评价的可视化系统研究

以河南省安阳市境内3条水系为例,提出了实现水环境质量评价的计算机图形可视化的技术路线和系统设计方案。深入探讨了实现河流水系的动态控制和交互处理的可能性。通过形象直观的计算机动态图形画面,再现了河流水质的现在和将来。      

Consequence risk analysis using operating procedure event trees and dynamic simulation

Faults due to human errors cost the petrochemical industry billions of dollars every year and can have adverse environmental consequences. Unquantified human error probabilities exist during process state transitions performed each day by process operators using standard operating procedures. Managing the risks associated with operating procedures is an essential part of managing the overall safety risk. Additional operator training and safety education cannot eliminate all such faults due to human errors; therefore, we propose an operating procedure event tree (OPET) like analysis with branches and events specifically designed to perform risk analysis on operating procedures. The OPET method adapts event trees to analyze the risk due to human error while performing operating procedures. We consider human error scenarios during the procedure and determine the likely consequences by applying dynamic simulation. The modified event tree provides an estimate of the error frequencies.Operating procedure steps were developed, and potential operator faults were determined for two typical equipment switching procedures found in chemical plant operations. Then, dynamic simulation using Aspen HYSYS software was applied to determine the overpressure related consequences of each fault. Finally, the error frequencies resulting from those scenarios were analyzed using operating procedure event trees. We found that a typical ethylene plant gas header would overpressure with 0.6% frequency per manual dryer switch. Since dryer switches occur from every few days up to once per shift, these results suggest that dryer switching should be automated to ensure safe and environmentally friendly operation. Process dryer switching performed manually by operators opening and closing gate valves can be automated with control valves and a distributed control system. A sample distillation column was found to overpressure with 0.85% frequency per manual reflux pump switch.     

Experimental research of the dynamic behavior of the natural gas suspension pipeline aerial crossing during pigging process

Suspension pipeline aerial crossings (SPAC) are mainly used to carry pipeline segments over large obstacles that are not suitable for trenchless technologies. It may suffer great vibrations and displacements during the pigging process due to the dynamic pigging loads and insufficient constraints from cables. Based on similarity criteria, an experimental scale model based on the Nujiang natural gas SPAC was designed and established. The vibration and displacement of the scale model were measured under different pigging velocities and liquid deposit volumes. The experimental results reveal that the natural gas SPAC vibrates during the pigging process, but the displacement versus time forms a U curve instead of a sinusoidal like curve. The extremum of the displacement is positively related to the pigging velocity and liquid deposit volume. In particular, the extremum increases by 0.37% with a 1% increase in the pigging velocity, while the displacement increases by 0.62% with a 1% increase in the liquid deposit volume. Under certain pigging conditions, or with damaged constraint components, the displacement extremum could be unacceptable. A low pigging velocity and a short time interval between two pigging operations are suggested to guarantee the safety of the natural gas SPACs. Besides, based on the experimental data, an empirical formula is developed to obtain the SPAC displacement-time curve with consideration of the span length, the pipeline diameter, the pigging velocity, the length and holdup of the liquid column. This formula can help to determine a suspicious displacement overrun, and to develop a data basis for choosing a safe pigging scheme of SPACs. This research provides insightful information to understand the mechanism of the SPAC's dynamic response as well as a practical tool to calculate the SPAC's displacement during the pigging process.     

Reliability evaluation of fire alarm systems using dynamic Bayesian networks and fuzzy fault tree analysis

In almost all industries, fire alarm systems play a vital role in the reducing the risks associated with fires and damages. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate their reliability and performance in emergency situations. The present study aimed to use fault tree analysis (FTA) to determine the root causes involved in the failure of fire alarm systems, to use Fuzzy set theory and expert elicitation to determine relative probabilities, and finally, to evaluate the reliability of a fire alarm system using dynamic Bayesian networks (BNs) during a thirty-six months period. A total of 29 basic events were detected from the FT. The reliability of the fire alarm system was estimated at 0.954 according to the FT and 0.957 according to conventional BNs. The reliability of the fire alarm system after 36 months was estimated at 0.375 according to dynamic BNs. All the events involved in the failure of fire alarm systems were drawn in the fault tree diagram. The results indicate that remodeling of these systems and simultaneous construction activities are the most important factors in the failure of the fire alarm system. System reliability can also be increased to 0.965 by providing preventive and control measures to reduce the probability of critical events.