基于模糊影响图方法的库存弹药事故概率分析

针对库存弹药安全的特殊性,在分析国内外库存弹药典型事故案例的基础上,指出FTA、ETA等传统概率计算方法存在的局限。提出一种基于模糊影响图(FID)的库存弹药事故概率分析方法,并对FID模型的构建过程和算法进行概述;以弹药被盗事故作为实例分析,并得到事故概率分布图和累积概率曲线。结果表明,FID的算法理论及建模过程能较好地克服FTA、ETA等传统方法的局限性,实例分析指出弹药被盗事故在10-4数量级的隶属度最高,且事故发生概率更趋向于10-3～10-1数量级,从而得到一旦仓库安全防范措施不到位,就很有可能发生弹药被盗事故的结论。     

矿井通风系统安全性的多层次模糊综合评价

按照事故致因理论,并进行系统安全分析和易发事故分析,建立了矿井通风系统安全性的多层次评价体系;应用层次分析法和Matlab软件,确定矿井通风系统安全性评价体系中各子系统及各指标的权重;结合实际经验,根据安全规范构造各指标隶属度;进而根据评价集构造了梯形分布的隶属函数,并得到各指标对评价集的最终隶属度、模糊关系矩阵和综合评价矩阵;求得矿井通风系统安全状况的综合得分,进而划分安全评价等级,并提出了对应各等级的处理措施。将该评价方法应用到重庆开县桃园联合煤矿,取得了良好的效果。     

用Ames试验检测水源水和自来水中的遗传毒性

用微伤寒沙门氏菌／哺乳动物微粒体酶系的Ａｍａｅｓ试验,研究了不同季节物水源水及管网自来水中的遗传毒性,以ＸＡＤ２树脂为吸附剂,以丙酮－甲醇的混合液为洗脱液,浓率水样中的有机物,并对部分阳性水样进行有机成分的定性分析。结果发现：１３个水样中有７个样品在淡需要代谢活化系统Ｓ９的情况下,可诱导鼠伤寒沙门氏菌碱基移码型菌株的回复突变;不同水样在不同季节不同的诱导作用;同时通过ＧＣ／ＭＳ方法分析,发现阳性水     

The value of the environment – Is it a matter of approach?

This paper discusses why estimates of the benefits of reduced air pollution differ in accordance with the approach used. Estimates based on bottom-up studies of the damage costs related to air pollution usually turn out much lower than estimates based on assessments of the utility of reduced air pollution, obtained for instance by willingness to pay assessments. This is usually explained by the fact that the willingness to pay approach includes the utility aspect of non-market values, and for this reason, it is often preferred to the damage cost approach. This is, however, not the whole story. The paper shows why alternative approaches should not be considered as being in conflict, but rather as means to get supplementary information necessary to put a value on environmental quality. Information from bottom-up assessments of damage costs and from studies of the willingness to pay is used in a macroeconomic model to carry out an evaluation of the social costs of energy saving measures in Hungary.     

Fecal source tracking by antibiotic resistance analysis on a watershed exhibiting low resistance

The ongoing development of microbial source tracking has made it possible to identify contamination sources with varying accuracy, depending on the method used. The purpose of this study was to test the efficiency of the antibiotic resistance analysis (ARA) method under low resistance by tracking the fecal sources at Turkey Creek, Oklahoma exhibiting this condition. The resistance patterns of 772 water-isolates, tested with nine antibiotics, were analyzed by discriminant analysis (DA) utilizing a five-source library containing 2250 isolates. The library passed various representativeness tests; however, two of the pulled-sample tests suggested insufficient sampling. The resubstitution test of the library individual sources showed significant isolate misclassification with an average rate of correct classification (ARCC) of 58%. These misclassifications were explained by low antibiotic resistance (Wilcoxon test P < 0.0001). Seasonal DA of stream E. coli isolates for the pooled sources human/livestock/deer indicated that in fall, the human source dominated (P < 0.0001) at a rate of 56%, and that human and livestock respective contributions in winter (35 and 39%), spring (43 and 40%), and summer (37 and 35%) were similar. Deer scored lower (17–28%) than human and livestock at every season. The DA was revised using results from a misclassification analysis to provide a perspective of the effect caused by low antibiotic resistance and a more realistic determination of the fecal source rates at Turkey Creek. The revision increased livestock rates by 13–14% (0.04 ≤ P ≤ 0.06), and decreased human and deer by 6–7%. Negative misclassification into livestock was significant (0.04 ≤ P ≤ 0.06). Low antibiotic resistance showed the greatest effect in this category.     

典型污染源中多环麝香的污染特征

合成麝香是一类近十多年才引起人们关注的有机污染物.合成麝香广泛分布于环境中.难降解,易生物富集,对水生生物和人体均呈现一定的生物毒性.文章对某一化妆品厂生产车闯内、外及工厂外的上、下风向大气中多环麝香进行了定性定量分析,结果表明,除ATⅡ之外,大气中检测出了五种多环麝香,其中作为对照点的上风向多环麝香总浓度为5.43ng/m3,而工厂室内、外及下风向的多环麝香浓度范围为17.25～5543.4ng/m3;气固分配实验研究发现,超过68.43%的多环麝香分布于气相中.     

Using Multi-Scale Sampling and Spatial Cross-Correlation to Investigate Patterns of Plant Species Richness

Land managers need better techniques to assess exoticplant invasions. We used the cross-correlationstatistic, I _YZ, to test for the presence ofspatial cross-correlation between pair-wisecombinations of soil characteristics, topographicvariables, plant species richness, and cover ofvascular plants in a 754 ha study site in RockyMountain National Park, Colorado, U.S.A. Using 25 largeplots (1000 m²) in five vegetation types, 8 of 12variables showed significant spatial cross-correlationwith at least one other variable, while 6 of 12variables showed significant spatial auto-correlation. Elevation and slope showed significant spatialcross-correlation with all variables except percentcover of native and exotic species. Percent cover ofnative species had significant spatialcross-correlations with soil variables, but not withexotic species. This was probably because of thepatchy distributions of vegetation types in the studyarea. At a finer resolution, using data from ten1 m² subplots within each of the 1000 m² plots, allvariables showed significant spatial auto- andcross-correlation. Large-plot sampling was moreaffected by topographic factors than speciesdistribution patterns, while with finer resolutionsampling, the opposite was true. However, thestatistically and biologically significant spatialcorrelation of native and exotic species could only bedetected with finer resolution sampling. We foundexotic plant species invading areas with high nativeplant richness and cover, and in fertile soils high innitrogen, silt, and clay. Spatial auto- andcross-correlation statistics, along with theintegration of remotely sensed data and geographicinformation systems, are powerful new tools forevaluating the patterns and distribution of native andexotic plant species in relation to landscape structure.     

5—(4—磺酸基苯偶氮)8—(2,4—二硝基苯氨基)喹啉测定食品中铜的研究应用

在弱碱性介质中 ,5— (4—磺酸基苯偶氮 ) 8— (2 ,4—二硝基苯氨基 )喹啉 (SPDNPAQ)与铜反应生成 2∶ 1紫红色络合物 ,体系 λmax=56 0 nm,ε=1.2 3× 10 5L· mol-1· cm-1。铜含量在 0～ 0 .4 mg/ L内符合比耳定律 ,方法用于一些生物样品和水样中铜的测定。     

地表水COD浓度灰色预测的GPPM（1）模型

根据地表水中ＣＯＤ浓度的时序数据,建立了ＧＰＰＭ（１）预测模型,结果表明ＧＰＰＭ（１）模型的预测精度优于常规灰色ＧＭ（１,１）模型,它为环境系统的拟合,预测和决策提供了新的方法途径。     

Migratory crustaceans as biomonitors of metal pollution in their nursery areas. The Lesina lagoon (SE Italy) as a case study

Lichens collected in an unpolluted forest (background) in November 2004, transplanted at 41 sampling sites along the Madina-Tetteh Quarshie road, retrieved in February 2005 and analysed were found to contain higher concentrations of Manganese (Mn), Vanadium (V), lead, Cadmium (Cd), Chromium (Cr) and Nickel (Ni) than in the background area. Observations showed that of all the heavy metals studied, Manganese concentrations were highest at all sampling points with maximum values around a traffic light, an intersection and car fitting/mechanic workshops. Significant correlations were found between Ni and Mn, Mn and Cr and Mn and V. Statistical analysis also revealed a relatively even dispersion of the studied elements on the eastern side of the road than on the western side.