ENSO事件对珠江中下游地区降水氢氧同位素的影响

水汽源区变化与ENSO事件显著影响季风区水循环过程。基于珠江中下游地区4个GNIP站点（中国香港、广州、桂林、柳州）的降水同位素及OLR（向外长波辐射）数据,研究了ENSO背景下δ¹⁸O的时空分布特征及ENSO事件对降水中氢氧同位素特征的影响机制。结果表明：ENSO事件是影响稳定同位素年际差异的主要因素,通过影响雨季降水的年内分配而实现;正常年大气降水线方程的斜率与截距均大于厄尔尼诺年而小于拉尼娜年;拉尼娜年加强 δ¹⁸O的反温度效应,厄尔尼诺年减弱反温度效应;厄尔尼诺与拉尼娜年热带辐合带的变化规律呈现出相反的趋势,其OLR场的变化与研究区稳定同位素特征有着较强的对应关系;ENSO事件年不同的水汽源区相对湿度特征是造成d值年际差异的主要因素。     

Effects of More Frequent and Prolonged El Niño Events on Life-History Parameters of the Degu, a Long-Lived and Slow-Reproducing Rodent

Abstract:  Global climate change (GCC) can have profound effects on species whose ecology is governed primarily by climatic factors. The ecology of small mammals inhabiting semiarid Chile is strongly affected by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). During La Niña events in this area, dry conditions prevail and species may disappear from the thorn-scrub habitat. Conversely, El Niño events bring high rainfall, and associated pulses of food trigger small-mammal population increases. We used capture–mark–recapture to study responses of the degu ( Octodon degus ), a dominant small mammal, to variation in rainfall over 18 years. In response to a recent trend toward wetter conditions, degus reached record-high densities and maintained more stable numbers in the area. Underlying mechanisms involved variation in adult survival, juvenile persistence, and fecundity linked to rainfall changes during consecutive years (i.e., rainfall phases). During prolonged droughts, degus had low survival and produced fewer offspring, with low persistence. Following high rainfall, these parameters reversed; consecutive wet years resulted in further increases. Weak declines in fecundity and adult survival and high persistence of juveniles explained delayed responses to deteriorating conditions in initial dry years. If GCC leads to increased frequency of El Niño events, we anticipate greater numerical dominance of degus in semiarid Chile and possible range expansion. Furthermore, degus have strong impacts on other small mammal and some plant species, are important prey species, and are agricultural pests and disease reservoirs. Hence, GCC has the potential to dramatically influence their ecology in northern Chile and to have cascading effects on other components of this system.     

近50年青海省气候变化特征及其与ENSO的关系

厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)常引起大气环流的改变并导致气候的异常变动。研究区域气候变化与ENSO之间的相互关系,有助于了解区域水文等各要素的变化。文章基于1960—2010年青海省29个气象站点的降水、气温数据与表征ENSO的热带太平洋海表温度距平(SSTA)和南方涛动指数(SOI)资料,通过气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall突变检验、相关性检验和小波分析等方法,研究了1960—2010年青海省降水和气温的变化特征及其与ENSO的关系。结果表明,1960—2010年青海省气候趋向暖湿,且这种趋势在90年代后愈加显著。在整个时间段内,气候变化尤其是降水变化与ENSO有显著的关系。在ENSO的冷暖事件时间段内,青海省的降水与气温都与海表温度、南方涛动指数有显著的相关性。由小波分析得出,降水和气温可能都受海表温度的影响较大;ENSO事件对青海省气温变化的影响大于对青海降水的影响。     

甘肃河东玉米种植区春夏气象干旱时空变化特征及其与环流因子关系

甘肃河东玉米种植区属于旱作雨养农业区,农作物生长主要依靠自然降水来维持,春夏干旱是影响该区玉米生长发育的关键因素。利用河东地区13个气象站点1957-2012年气象资料,基于标准化降水蒸散指数从干旱趋势、周期、空间特征及其与环流因子关系方面探讨近56 a来河东玉米种植区春夏干旱演变特征。结果表明：近56 a河东玉米种植区春夏两季均呈干旱化趋势,并自20世纪90年代中期以后,干旱呈加重趋势。干旱变化共经历了3个气候阶段,20世纪80年代之前,春夏旱情较轻;80年代-90年代,夏旱较春旱严重;2000年以后,春旱较夏旱严重。干旱周期变化,春夏干旱周期分别为20 a和14 a,干旱周期性变化主要是受太阳黑子活动影响。春夏干旱发生频率在突变前后差异显著,低频区在突变后转为高频区,易旱区呈扩大状态。ENSO事件是影响该区春夏干旱发生的主要环流因子,尤其对夏旱影响最为显著。近20 a来ENSO事件增强是该区干旱事件不断加重的原因,ENSO暖事件爆发时,该区春夏趋于干旱,由湿向干转变;ENSO冷事件爆发,干旱则有所缓解,由干向湿转变。     

CLIMATE FORECASTS IN FLOOD PLANNING: PROMISE AND AMBIGUITY1

ABSTRACT: Recent technical and scientific advances have increased the potential use of long term, seasonal climate forecasts for improving water resource management. This paper examines the role that forecasts, in particular those based on the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, can play in flood planning in the Pacific Northwest. While strong evidence exists of an association between ENSO signals and flooding in the region, this association is open to more than one interpretation depending on: (a) the metric used to test the strength of the association; (b) the definition of critical flood events; (c) site specific features of watersheds; and (d) the decision environment of flood management institutions. A better understanding and appreciation of such ambiguities, both social and statistical, will help facilitate the use of climate forecast information for flood planning and response.     

Interannual variability of carbon cycle implied by a 2-d atmospheric transport model

A 2-dimensional atmospheric transport model is deployed in asimplified CO2 inverse study. Calculated carbon flux distribution for the interval from 1981 to 1997 confirms the existence of a terrestrial carbon sink in mid-high latitude area of North Hemisphere. Strong interannual variability exists in carbon flux patterns, implying a possible link with ENSO and other natural episodes such as Pinatubo volcano eruption in 1991. Mechanism of this possible link was investigated with statistic method. Correlation analysis indicated that in North Hemisphere, climatic factors such as temperature and precipitation, to some extend, could influence the carbon cycle process of land and ocean, thus cause considerable change in carbon flux distribution. In addition, correlation study also demonstrated the possible important role of Asian terrestrial ecosystems in carbon cycle.     

Variability and predictability of sea-level extremes in the Hawaiian and U.S.-Trust Islands—a knowledge base for coastal hazards management

The objective of this study is to provide an improved climatology of sea level extremes on seasonal and long-term time scales for Hawaii and the U.S-Trust islands. Observations revealed that the Hawaiian and U.S.-Trust islands, by and large, display a strong annual cycle. For estimating the statistics of return period, the three-parameter generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is fitted using the method of L-moments. In the context of extremes (20- to 100-year return periods), the deviations in most of the Hawaiian Islands (except at Nawiliwili and Hilo) displayed a moderate sea-level rise (i.e., close to 200 mm), but the deviations in the U.S.-Trust islands displayed a considerably higher rise (i.e., more than 300 mm) in some seasons due to typhoon-related storm surges. This rise may cause damage to roads, harbors, and unstable sandy beaches. Correlations between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate cycle and the variability of seasonal sea level have been investigated. Results show that correlation for the station located west of the International Date Line (DL) is strong, but it is moderate or even weaker for stations east of the DL. The skill of SST-based Canonical Correlation Analyses (CCA) forecasts was found to be weak to moderate (0.4–0.6 for Honolulu, Kahului, Hilo, and Wake, and 0.3 or below for Kahului, Mokuoloe, and Johnston). Finally, these findings are synthesized for evaluating the potential implications of sea level variability in these islands.     

Institutional, policy and farmer responses to drought: El Niño events and rice in the Philippines

Droughts are common recurring natural hazards in Asia, and El Niño events are particularly severe in the Philippines. This paper explores responses by farm households, irrigation system managers, and macro policymakers in the Philippines to El Niño. In response to the large 1997–98 El Niño, farmers in one major irrigation system significantly diversified their economic activities, hut the drought was so acute that many of these activities were not successful. Communication between meteorologists and irrigation system managers is strong, and irrigation system managers are aware of El Niño events in advance. Communication between irrigation system managers and farmer irrigation associations is also strong, and together they have developed response options that attempt to augment supplies of and more efficiently allocate scarce water. Water pricing is not used, however, and lack of cooperation among farmers results in sub-optimal outcomes. Macro-level policy responses in terms of rice imports and buffer stock management to protect poor consumers have improved substantially over time.     

1951-2007年的ENSO事件及其特征值

基于新的气候标准场(1971-2000年),对ENSO事件的定义及表征特征值作了综合评述.根据海洋尼诺指数ONI,确定了1951-2007年的ENSO事件,计18次暖事件和13次冷事件.通过对1951年以来逐月资料的统计分析,对ENSO的主要指数进行了相关分析,定义了ENSO事件的强度指数,并确定了1997-1998年发生的是自1951年以来最强的暖事件.     

Impact of climate fluctuations on deposition of DDT and hexachlorocyclohexane in mountain glaciers: Evidence from ice core records

How do climate fluctuations affect DDT and hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) distribution in the global scale? In this study, the interactions between climate variations and depositions of DDT and HCH in ice cores from Mt. Everest (the Tibetan Plateau), Mt. Muztagata (the eastern Pamirs) and the Rocky Mountains were investigated. All data regarding DDT/HCH deposition were obtained from the published results. Concentrations of DDT and HCH in an ice core from Mt. Everest were associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Concentrations of DDT in an ice core from Mt. Muztagata were significantly correlated with the Siberia High pattern. Concentrations of HCH in an ice core from Snow Dome of the Rocky Mountains responded to the North Atlantic Oscillation. These associations suggested that there are some linkages between climate variations and the global distribution of persistent organic pollutants.