发光细菌毒性法在饮用水水质评估与预警中的应用

通过对温州地区水源地、自来水等水质指标的研究,评估发光细菌(费氏弧菌)生物预警毒性监测的有效性,并结合实际案例,探讨以发光细菌生物毒性指标评估、预警水质的可行性。在正常情况下,饮用水水源地水质在低发光抑制率区间(±18%),如果水质遭遇农药污染等非正常情况,发光抑制率明显升高。在自来水净水过程中的各个处理阶段,发光细菌的水质毒性检测表现出敏感性,可以用于水质安全在线实时监控。     

浙江省水质自动监测管理系统构建

概述了各地在构建水质自动监测管理系统上的探索和不足。构建了水质自动监测管理系统,统一应用平台,利用仪器仪表标识集,实施监测数据辅助审核,完善数据预警统计分析功能;通过平台对现场端仪器自动巡检,实现数据集中化管理,完善水质自动监测质量控制体系,满足了环境管理需求。     

Rapid-behaviour responses as a reliable indicator of estrogenic chemical toxicity in zebrafish juveniles

Whereas biochemical and molecular parameters have been well recognised as important “signposts” of individual disturbance to endocrine disrupting chemical’s (EDCs) exposure, behavioural endpoints are yet greatly overlooked as a routine tool in environmental risk assessment of EDCs. However, life histories are intimately associated with numerous inter- and intra-specific interactions, which invariably depend on the performance of effective behaviours. Within fish species, one of the most important factors influencing energy turnover earlier in the development is locomotor activity. This essential trait reflects the organism’s ability to generate and coordinate the metabolic energy required for both reproductive and non-reproductive behaviours. Inappropriate movement responses due to toxic effects of contaminants may ultimately impact important ecological variables.Therefore, in the present study, the swimming bursts of zebrafish juveniles exposed for 40 d to the synthetic estrogen ethinylestradiol (EE₂), tested at environmentally relevant concentrations (nominal concentrations of 0.5, 1 and 2 ng L⁻¹), were investigated in order to address the potential of rapid-behaviour patterns as an effective response indicator of estrogenic endocrine disrupting chemical’s exposure. This synthetic estrogen was selected due to its high prevalence in aquatic ecosystems, ability to mimic natural estrogens and proven record of causing negative effects in fish reproduction. The behavioural responses were compared with established endpoints used in the screening of EE₂ effects at adulthood. Results indicate that zebrafish juveniles’ swimming activity was significantly decreased upon EE₂ exposure. Since reduced locomotion of zebrafish may impact foraging, predator avoidance, drift and transport, and even interfere with social and reproductive behaviours, a fitness decline of wild fish populations can ultimately be hypothesized. Furthermore, behavioural endpoints were found to display higher sensitivity to EE₂ than either vitellogenin gene induction or reproductive parameters determined at adulthood.Overall, the findings of this work not only demonstrate the power of high-throughput behavioural responses, able to act as sensitive early warning signals of EDC exposure, but also highlight the potential of behavioural endpoints in providing a more comprehensive and non-invasive measure of EDC’s exposure.     

Sensitivity analysis for models of greenhouse gas emissions at farm level. Case study of N(2)O emissions simulated by the CERES-EGC model

Modelling complex systems such as farms often requires quantification of a large number of input factors. Sensitivity analyses are useful to reduce the number of input factors that are required to be measured or estimated accurately. Three methods of sensitivity analysis (the Morris method, the rank regression and correlation method and the Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test method) were compared in the case of the CERES-EGC model applied to crops of a dairy farm. The qualitative Morris method provided a screening of the input factors. The two other quantitative methods were used to investigate more thoroughly the effects of input factors on output variables. Despite differences in terms of concepts and assumptions, the three methods provided similar results. Among the 44 factors under study, N₂O emissions were mainly sensitive to the fraction of N₂O emitted during denitrification, the maximum rate of nitrification, the soil bulk density and the cropland area.     

How do different process options and evaluation settings affect economic and environmental assessments? A case study on methyl methacrylate (MMA) production processes

We present an investigation on how economic and environmental assessment results change when different process options or evaluation settings are considered. As the main case study the production technology of methyl methacrylate (MMA) is investigated. Six commercial processes using different reaction routes are modelled and evaluated with respect to their economic and environmental performance. On these six base case models different process options and evaluation settings are considered and the resulting impacts on the assessment results are quantified. Major findings of the study are that the more decision-variables become fixed, the smaller becomes the impact of the decisions still to be taken—but not only with respect to the economic performance but also with regard to the environmental assessment result. Along the process development steps the potential impacts on the economic and environmental performance decrease to the same degree. The results obtained for the evaluation settings do not show such a systematic pattern as those for the process options. This finding indicates that decision makers face many options in the economic and especially the environmental assessment of chemical processes which might lead to quite different magnitudes in variability due to either the choice of method or the choice of method parameters. This paper demonstrates that the resulting variability might be crucial with respect to the decision making outcome.     

用于早期火灾分类的非线性决策树支持向量机

对早期火灾信息进行研究,提出了一种基于非线性决策树的支持向量机多类分类模型。该模型利用非线性映射将样本投影到高维特征空间,比较每类样本在高维空间的分布情况,进行聚类构造出一个二叉决策树,使容易区分的类别从根节点逐层分类出来,有效克服了错分积累和避免不可分情况;同时,各个节点采用二值最小二乘小波支持向量机,以获得较高的泛化能力。该文将该模型用于早期火灾分类,并与BP神经网络、K近邻法和决策树方法进行比较,实验结果表明,该模型对早期火灾的识别率更高。     

Work injuries and disability

Problem

This study estimated the hazard ratio for disability pension retirement (DPR) for persons who have experienced a work injury causing absence lasting at least one day after the accidental injury occurred and to estimate the fraction of DPR attributable to work injuries.

Methods:

A total of 4,217 male and 4,105 female employees from a national survey were followed up for subsequent DPR.

Results and impact on industry and government:

Having had a work injury was a strong predictor of DPR among men. After control for age, smoking, body mass index, body postures, and physical demands, the hazard ratio (HR) among those employees who had ever experienced a work injury was 1.80 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.20-2.68). No association was found among women.

Summary:

Having had a reportable work injury is a strong predictor of subsequent DPR for men.     

Estimating willingness to pay for a hypothetical earthquake early warning systems

The development of reliable, accessible, and transparent earthquake early warning systems (EEWSs) for disaster reduction have been given increased priority at local, national, and international levels. Accurately quantifying the social and economic benefits accrued to households and businesses from EEWSs are a challenging and difficult task. In this paper, the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) is used to evaluate the benefits of a hypothetical EEWS to the citizens of Tehran Metropolitan. This study clarifies public willingness to pay (WTP) for EEWS in Tehran, and the dominant factors involved in WTP through a CVM analysis. The survey, completed by more than 504 households, showed that on average households are willing to pay 367,471 Rials (38 US$) per month for the hypothetical EEWS. Those willing to pay the most for EEWS are households, which currently possess a fire alarm. Also the more educated the respondents and the more children the respondents have, the more willing they are to pay for EEWS. These results could be used by policy makers and technology firms in order to determine the optimal investments in early warning systems for earthquake disaster reduction.     

Green reconstruction of the tsunami-affected areas in India using the integrated coastal zone management concept

A tsunami, triggered by a massive undersea earthquake off Sumatra in Indonesia, greatly devastated the lives, property and infrastructure of coastal communities in the coastal states of India, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Malaysia and Thailand. This event attracted the attention of environmental managers at all levels, local, national, regional and global. It also shifted the focus from the impact of human activities on the environment to the impacts of natural hazards. Recovery/reconstruction of these areas is highly challenging. A clear understanding of the complex dynamics of the coast and the types of challenges faced by the several stakeholders of the coast is required. Issues such as sustainability, equity and community participation assume importance. The concept of ICZM (integrated coastal zone management) has been effectively used in most parts of the world. This concept emphasizes the holistic assessment of the coast and a multidisciplinary analysis using participatory processes. It integrates anthropocentric and eco-centric approaches. This paper documents several issues involved in the recovery of tsunami-affected areas and recommends the application of the ICZM concept to the reconstruction efforts.     

突发性水污染事故预警体系建设综述

随着流域水污染事件的频发,突发性水污染事故预警平台的科学建设成为流域应急管理的重要内容。基于预警平台数据感知层、数据管理层、业务感知层的总体架构,综述了国内外突发性水污染事故预警平台的建设现状。从水质监测技术、突发事故预警模型、预警平台整体构建4个方面分析了近年来突发性水污染事故预警平台的研究进展与不足,以期为流域突发性水污染预警系统的建设提供参考。