Resilience of stocking capacity to changing climate in arid to Mediterranean landscapes

Small livestock is an important resource for rural human populations in dry climates. How strongly will climate change affect the capacity of the rangeland? We used hierarchical modelling to scale quantitatively the growth of shrubs and annual plants, the main food of sheep and goats, to the landscape extent in the eastern Mediterranean region. Without grazing, productivity increased in a sigmoid way with mean annual precipitation. Grazing reduced productivity more strongly the drier the landscape. At a point just under the stocking capacity of the vegetation, productivity declined precipitously with more intense grazing due to a lack of seed production of annuals. We repeated simulations with precipitation patterns projected by two contrasting IPCC scenarios. Compared to results based on historic patterns, productivity and stocking capacity did not differ in most cases. Thus, grazing intensity remains the stronger impact on landscape productivity in this dry region even in the future.     

OPTIMIZATION OF WATER RESOURCES FOR IRRIGATION IN EAST JORDAN1

The paper describes an approach towards optimal allocation of surface and ground water resources to three agricultural areas in the Jordan Valley under conditions of scarce water supply. The optimizing model allocates water from three main rivers, each with reservoir storage, and from two ground water sources to three irrigation regions. Productivity of irrigation water, expressed as the net present value of the regional agricultural output, but allowing for crop water deficits, is first maximized using nonlinear programming. The allocation process then adopts techniques of linear programming to determine the least cost alternative based on the unit cost of water from each resource at each destination, as it varies with time.     

Economic and Ecological Transformation Processes in East German Water Management Regimes: The Role of Property Rights and Governance Structures

As in many fen land regions in East Germany, long-standing intensive arable farming—enabled by reclamation—has caused soil deterioration and high water runoff in the Schraden region. The more than ten years of economic and political transformation that followed the breakdown of the socialist regime has worsened the situation and even added new problems. The visible consequences are droughts in the summer, waterlogged plots in the spring, and worn-down water management facilities that operate in an uncoordinated or even unauthorized way. Given the local public-good character of some features of the fen land, the common-pool character of the ecosystems intermittently scarce resource water, and the conflicting interests of regional stakeholders, it is argued that the reallocation of property rights over reclamation systems, together with ineffective coordination mechanisms, have caused the physical and institutional failure of the water management system and so impeded appropriate land use. Note: This version was published online in June 2005 with the cover date of August 2004.     

粤东沿海地区的区域发展

在分析粤东沿海地区的概况、区域发展的优劣势条件基础上,结合粤东沿海地区的发展机遇,提出了区域发展的构思:扩大区域开放与协调、进行产业调整和升级、优化城镇体系和空间格局及人口发展对策.     

The contemporary copper cycle of Asia

A regional stock and flow model for an industrial metal was developed based on the substance-flow framework. Using this model, the contemporary copper cycle of the Asian region was constructed by aggregating country-level production and import and export data for different stages of the copper cycle. The reliability and availability of data were assessed both qualitatively and quantitatively. Asia as a region is a net importer of copper. There is a significant build-up of copper in use at a rate of nearly 3TgCu/year. The per capita generation of copper waste (0.4kgCu/(capita-year)) and the rate of secondary recovery of copper are low compared with Europe and North America. Japan's rates of use, waste generation, and recycling of copper are all much larger than the continental average. A tremendous potential exists in the region to utilize the copper content of the in-use reservoir, and subsequently to enhance copper recycling rates in the future. A set of metrics for the copper cycle is suggested in order to address sustainability issues related to resource policy and the environmental management of copper.     

Taxing mineral resource projects : Papua New Guinea, Indonesia and the Philippines

Within the context of a case study of three Asia/Pacific countries' mineral taxation regimes, this article examines the impact of individual fiscal instrucments, and the total fiscal package, on investor risk perceptions, investor returns and government receipts. It shows that under conditions of uncertainty and risk aversion on the part of investors, significant gains in expected government revenues can be achieved without seriously affecting the investors' ex-ante assessments of projects by a judicious selection and mix of fiscal instruments.     

FORESTS AND OTHER FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH STREAMFLOWS IN EAST TEXAS1

Effects of proportion of watersheds in forest and watershed physiographic factors on mean annual streamflow (1965-76), median flow, and 12 flood flow characteristics were regionally analyzed for 19 unregulated streams in East Texas. Annual streamflow increased with decreasing proportion of forest area. Differences in annual streamflow between full forest cover and bare watersheds could be as much as 200 mm. Other things being equal, the minimum watershed area required to generate 0.142 cm (5 cfs), a criterion used by the U.S. Corps of Engineering in regulating dredge and fill activity for water pollution abatement in East Texas streams, is 70 km² (27 mi²). Of the 31 physio-climatic parameters analyzed, watershed area, percent forest area, shape index, spring precipitation, and annual temperature were the most significant in affecting streamflow characteristics in East Texas. Using 2-3 of these five variables, all of the 14 streamflow characteristics can be estimated with accuracy ranging from acceptable to excellent levels.     

东海特定海区沉积物-水界面附近P释放的实验研究

以采自长江口外东海表层沉积物为对象，对不同类型的沉积物在模拟海水环境中进行了释P实验。研究表明，在静态条件下，沉积物释P量的高点出现在摇晃后10min左右，大约3h后基本趋于平衡。释P动力学可用Elovich公式与双常数速率公式进行拟合。最大释P量与沉积物的组成密切相关，以粉砂、粘土为主的沉积物释P量高，而砂质为主者释P量低。在释P实验中，铁磷(Fe-P)最为活跃，释放比例最高，其次是吸附态磷(Ad-P)和有机态磷(OP)。它们均属于生物可获得P的范畴。实验结果表明，在合适的水动力条件下，沉积物中的P可以迅速释放到水体．并影响水体的营养状杰和初级生产力。     

Anthropogenic Calcium Particles Observed in Beijing and Qingdao, China

Analysis of individual particles collected at Beijing in northern China revealed that particles abundant in calcium (Ca) always constituted a large fraction of mineral particles in the urban atmosphere. The particles were characterized by cubic morphologies. The major mineral element in the particles was Ca and few or no other mineral elements were detected. A large number of the particles were in the range of diameter <1 μm, where common natural mineral particles were rarely detected. The contribution of the Ca particles to the volume of total mineral particles greatly exceeded that of other mineral particles during non-dust-storm periods and was comparable to that during dust-storm periods. Reagent film tests showed that particulate sulfate and nitrate formation on the Ca particles was similar to that on common mineral particles. These results indicate that a large portion of Ca in the atmospheric particulate matter in Beijing was from anthropogenic sources rather than from natural sources, and the anthropogenic Ca particles acted as a significant medium for the formation of sulfate and nitrate. Similar particles were also detected at Qingdao, a coastal city in northern China. Data of a dust storm event showed that Ca-abundant particles from East China arrived there and moved out of the continent, similarly to Asian dust storm particles, suggesting possible contributions of anthropogenic Ca even in Asian dust storm samples in the downstream areas. Therefore, Ca may not be a good indicator of Asian dust from natural sources. However, the Ca particles, due to their unique shapes and elemental compositions, may provide an indicator for the atmospheric dispersion of anthropogenic particulate matters in East Asia.     

Mekong River Fish Conservation Zones in Southern Laos: Assessing Effectiveness Using Local Ecological Knowledge

Small-scale fisheries are important in Laos, where rural people heavily depend upon Mekong River and tributary fish stocks for their livelihoods. Increasing pressures from human exploitation and habitat disturbance, however, have raised serious concerns about the potential depletion of various species. This has led to the establishment of large numbers of Fish Conservation Zones (FCZs) or “no-take” fish sanctuaries in southern Laos based on a “community-based fisheries co-management” framework. This study uses the local ecological knowledge (LEK) of fishers to assess the effectiveness of village-managed FCZs in enhancing fish stocks in the mainstream Mekong River in Khong District, Champasak Province. Focus group interviews about species that are believed to have benefited from different FCZs are compared with parameters such as FCZ area, age, depth, localized gradient, water velocity, and the presence of wetland forests nearby. The results suggest that no one aspect is likely to account for variations in fish stocks; rather, it is the interaction between numerous factors that has the largest impact. Secondly, the results indicate that microhabitat diversity and protection are critical for maintaining and enhancing Mekong fisheries. Deep-water pools are particularly important as dry season refuges for many fish species, and FCZ depth may be the single most important environmental factor affecting the success of FCZs in the Mekong River. FCZs have the most potential to benefit relatively sedentary species, but may also benefit highly migratory species, given the right conditions. This study shows that integrated approaches to stock assessment that employ LEK and scientific fisheries management have considerable potential for improving Mekong capture-fisheries management.