塔里木河流域生态脆弱性评价研究

塔里木河流域受自然及人为因素的影响,局部地区生态退化问题突出,从景观生态学的干扰性质理论和恢复生态学的观点出发,选择水资源系统、土地资源系统及植被资源系统及其10个综合性敏感因子对流域生态的敏感性及恢复力进行分析,并确定敏感因子的定量指标,定性代码及其权重和阈值,通过算术对数插值对敏感因子实际值进行规范化处理,并构建生态胁迫度。结果表明,塔里木河三源流阿克苏河流域、叶尔羌河流域、和田河流域及于流区的上、中、下游区生态胁迫度分别为0．13、0．25、0．30、0．31、0．57及0．84,在评价分级标准的限定下,其对应的生态脆弱性程度依次为轻微脆弱、一般脆弱、一般脆弱、一般脆弱、中等脆弱及严重脆弱。     

黄河流域生态保护与高质量发展的耦合关系及交互响应

在分析生态保护与高质量发展耦合机理的基础上,以省域为研究单元评价黄河流域生态保护与高质量发展的耦合协调度,并与长江经济带进行对比;利用面板VAR模型定量考察黄河流域生态保护与高质量发展的交互响应关系。主要结论如下：（1）研究期内黄河流域生态保护指数和高质量发展指数均呈现增长的趋势,总体均呈现中下游地区高于上游地区的格局。（2）研究期内黄河流域生态保护与高质量发展的耦合协调度整体呈现增长的态势,其中2003—2011年耦合协调度小于0.5,属于拮抗阶段;2012—2017年耦合协调度处于0.5~0.7之间,属于磨合阶段;耦合协调度总体呈现下游>中游>上游的空间格局,在省域层面山东和陕西的耦合协调度最大,宁夏和青海的耦合协调状况最差。（3）黄河流域的生态保护指数略高于全国平均水平,但低于长江经济带;高质量发展指数和耦合协调度都低于全国平均水平,与长江经济带的差距更大。（4）黄河流域生态保护与高质量发展两个子系统都存在正向累进效应和惯性发展特征,并且两者对于自身的影响程度都呈现逐步下降的态势,其中高质量发展对自身的影响程度下降更为明显;黄河流域生态保护与高质量发展具有正向促进作用,但由于生态保护和高质量发展水平偏低且内部发展不均衡,造成二者的作用机制不显著。     

Modeling Changes to Streamflow,Sediment, and Nutrient Loading from Land Use Changes Due to Potential Natural Gas Development

Natural gas development using hydraulic fracturing has many potential environmental impacts, but among the most certain is the land disturbance required to build the well pads and other infrastructure required to drill and extract the gas. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to investigate how natural gas development could impact streamflow and sediment, total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorous (TP) loadings in the upper Delaware River Basin (DRB), a relatively undeveloped watershed of 7,950 km² that lies above the Marcellus Shale formation. If gas development was permitted, our projections show the DRB could experience development of over 600 well pads to extract natural gas at build out, which, with supporting infrastructure (roads, gathering pipelines), could convert over 5,000 ha from existing land uses in the study area. In subbasins with development activity we found sediment, TN, and TP yields could increase by an average of 15, 0.08, and 0.03 kg/ha/yr, respectively (an increase of 2, 3, and 15%, respectively) for each one percent of subbasin land area converted into natural gas infrastructure. At the study area outlet on the Delaware River at Port Jervis, New York, we found increases in the annual average streamflow and sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loads of up to 0.01, 0.2, 0.2, and 1%, respectively, for a rapid development year, and 0.08, 1.3, 2.0, and 11%, respectively, for the full development scenario. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Continental‐Scale River Flow Modeling of the Mississippi River Basin Using High‐Resolution NHDPlus Dataset

As a key component of the National Flood Interoperability Experiment (NFIE), this article presents the continental scale river flow modeling of the Mississippi River Basin (MRB), using high‐resolution river data from NHDPlus. The Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge (RAPID) was applied to the MRB with more than 1.2 million river reaches for a 10‐year study (2005‐2014). Runoff data from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was used as input to RAPID. This article investigates the effect of topography on RAPID performance, the differences between the VIC‐RAPID streamflow simulations in the HUC‐2 regions of the MRB, and the impact of major dams on the streamflow simulations. The model performance improved when initial parameter values, especially the Muskingum K parameter, were estimated by taking topography into account. The statistical summary indicates the RAPID model performs better in the Ohio and Tennessee Regions and the Upper and Lower Mississippi River Regions in comparison to the western part of the MRB, due to the better performance of the VIC model. The model accuracy also increases when lakes and reservoirs are considered in the modeling framework. In general, results show the VIC‐RAPID streamflow simulation is satisfactory at the continental scale of the MRB.     

水布垭水库水体碳时空变化特征及其影响因素分析

为了评估大型水库对河流碳循环的拦截作用,选择清江流域最上游水布垭水库为典型案例,采用德国元素公司vario TOC分析仪对定期采集水样进行分析,研究新建大型水库水体碳时空分布特征及其影响因素。结果表明,水布垭水库表层水体总碳、总无机碳、溶解有机碳和颗粒有机碳平均含量分别为26.665、24.089、2.141和0.438 mg/L,在水库年内蓄水阶段呈现显著的峰值,其空间分布格局在支流库湾和坝前典型断面表现出显著的差异,在水体碳中总无机碳占据主导地位,与湖泊水体碳时空分布特征极为相似。由于受到人类活动和自然环境的双重影响,水体无机碳则与水体电导率指标具有较强的相关性,溶解有机碳则与水体温度具有直接的关系,而数量最少的颗粒有机碳则与水体叶绿素含量具有弱相关关系。研究成果可以为理解水库碳循环过程机制提供数据支持,对于开展大坝建设的河流碳循环影响评估具有重要参考意义。     

基于SWAT模型的太湖西北部30a来氮磷的输出特征

随着工业的迅速发展和农业生产方式的转变,使得太湖富营养化现象日趋严重,对流域内生态环境构成极大的威胁。以研究区6个时期土地利用数据和30a逐日降雨数据为模型的主要输入变量,利用SWAT模型分别对研究区内6个不同时期营养盐输出进行模拟研究,得到研究区内30a时间尺度(1984~2013年)营养盐输出情况。根据模型输出结果探究研究区内营养盐输出与降雨量、径流量以及土地利用变化的关系。以2009~2013年宜兴站径流数据和水质数据作为模型的率定和验证数据,总氮(TN)和总磷(TP)在模型率定期确定系数R2为0.76和0.92,纳什效率系数Ens为0.76和0.79,验证期确定系数R2为0.66和0.95,纳什效率系数Ens为0.6和0.54,模拟结果较好。结果表明:营养盐输出与降雨在时间是呈现较强的相关性,但是在空间上降雨与营养盐输出相关性不明显;土地利用类型与营养盐输出密切相关,耕地和建设用地是研究区主要的营养盐输出源,土地利用类型空间分布与TN、TP空间分布相关系数分别为0.74和0.73。将为太湖流域非点源污染控制和治理提供理论支撑及数据基础。     

典型经济快速发展区耕地变化区域分异研究

耕地变化的区域分异研究可为确保国家粮食安全和生态安全提供重要依据。基于RS和GIS技术,分析太湖流域1985~2015年耕地数量、质量和动态结构的时空演化格局。结果表明:近30a流域耕地呈现以城镇为中心面的边缘扩散和以乡镇为中心点的散布流失特征,导致耕地净减少了38.87%,其中环湖、沿江城市密集区及县域空间拓展区是耕地流失的热点区域。耕地集中连片分布区与经济发展快速区的空间复合导致耕地缩减与建设用地扩张呈现空间对应关系,建设占用始终是驱动耕地减少的主要因素。不同阶段受经济发展水平和农业政策影响,不同地类对耕地转移的贡献率和空间分布差异明显,且转移比例在数量和质量上均不对等。总体上,耕地变化呈现由缓慢零散占用到快速集聚流失的过程,耕地数量和质量变化高值和低值区亦表现由分散到集中的格局,最终驱动了耕地优势区由环湖平原区向西南丘陵区的空间转移。     

长江流域土壤相对湿度变化及其影响因素

以1992~2012年长江流域196个土壤观测站的旬土壤相对湿度资料为基础,通过线性趋势和Kriging插值等方法分析0~50 cm土层土壤相对湿度年际、年内时空分异和季节变化特征,并从气候和NDVI要素探寻其变化原因。结果表明:(1)长江流域年均土壤相对湿度自1992年以来整体上呈波动增加趋势,年际变化倾向率为0.26%/a。江源地区土壤相对湿度增幅大于其他地区。(2)土壤相对湿度表现为东南和西南部较高,东北和西北部较低的空间分布特点。(3)四季土壤相对湿度增加的强烈程度由大到小依次是秋季、冬季、夏季、春季。(4)土壤相对湿度增加的主要原因是潜在蒸发减少和NDVI增加。     

东海浮游多毛类的时空分布

根据1997~2000年东海23°30′~33°00′N、118°30′~128°00′E海域4个季节海洋调查资料,探讨了东海浮游多毛类数量变化、相应的动力学过程及与渔场的关系。结果表明:浮游多毛类秋季平均丰度为23.68×10-2/m3,夏季8.59×10-2/m3,冬季5.80×10-2/m3,春季最低(1.20×10-2/m3);温度在多毛类丰度的季节变化中起主要作用,盐度次之。除了秋季,其他季节多毛类丰度平面分布较为均匀。多毛类的数量波动,与东海暖流势力消长和沿岸水有密切的联系,也同暖流势力从夏季到秋季维持一段时间有密切关系。     

A gis-based assessment on the vulnerability and future extent of the tropical forests of the congo basin

This paper examines the vulnerability of the Congo Basin's forests through a GIS platform, taking into consideration the variables of population growth, road density, logging concession, and forest fragmentation. The assessment indicates that the forests will continue to shrink towards the interior over the next 50 years. Current contiguous forests will fragment into three large blocks, including one on the west side of the Congo River and two in the Democratic Republic of Congo, while a large number of small forest patches will retain in the periphery of the large blocks. The study shows that integrated GIS assessment of the driving forces of tropical deforestation can shed light on the future forest distribution and provide a tool to address the broader implications of social and economic development for tropical deforestation.