华东及安徽地区断裂构造及分形分析

本文在对安徽及华东地区地震断裂构造分析的基础上,利用数盒子法计算了华东及安徽的活动断裂的分形维数,并从分形理论的角度讨论了活动断裂和地震活动性之间的关系,认为活动断裂的分形维数和地震活动性的分形维数是相等的.对华东及安徽的3种类型断裂(基底断裂、地壳断裂及岩石圈断裂)的不同分形维数和该区域地震的b值关系分析,认为该地区地壳断裂控制了该区域的地震活动.     

Rapid Assessment of Soil Erosion in the Rio Lempa Basin, Central America, Using the Universal Soil Loss Equation and Geographic Information Systems

Soil erosion is a severe problem for many developing regions that lack adequate infrastructure to combat the problem. The authors established a first-order method for prioritizing areas to be examined and remediated using preexisting data and expert knowledge where data are lacking. The Universal Soil Loss Equation was applied to the Rio Lempa Basin in Central America using geographic information systems and remote sensing technologies, and the estimated erosion rates were compared with sediment delivery ratios. Spatial analysis indicates that agriculture on very steep slopes contributes only a small fraction to the total estimated soil erosion, whereas agriculture on gentle and moderately steep slopes contributes a large fraction of the erosion. Although much of the basin is in El Salvador, the greatest estimated amount of erosion is from Honduras. Data quality and availability were impaired by a lack of coordination among agencies and across countries. Several avenues for improving the authors’ methods are described.     

鄂尔多斯白垩系环河含水岩组中的地球化学反向模拟

在了解鄂尔多斯盆地的地形、地势、地貌、新构造运动、岩石类型、岩性构造和其他特征的基础上，运用化学热力学原理、质量作用定律和质量守恒定律，用反向模拟的方法对白垩系环河组地下水进行了水-岩作用的地球化学模拟。对该区地下水的演化过程进行了定量的分析研究，揭示了其水化学场的形成机理，总结了矿物的溶解沉淀规律，为该区水文地质模型的建立、地下水资源的水质水量评价及其合理开发利用和科学管理提供了科学依据，可供该地区水土流失等地质灾害的预防和综合治理参考。     

洪水预报调度决策支持系统的设计与开发

基于C/S和B/S相结合的结构模式,开发了九龙江流域洪水预报调度决策支持系统。该系统采用了马斯京根矩阵解法、卡尔曼滤波实时校正、交互式调度方案生成、ASP等关键技术,实现了信息管理、洪水预报、洪水调度和系统管理等功能。     

PLANNING AND SELECTING MULTIOBJECTIVE PROJECTS BY GOAL PROGRAMMING1

ABSTRACT. A multiple goal planning approach is proposed as a solution to the public water resources project selection problem. The goal programming technique enables a comprehensive water resources model. The model considers both economic and environmental objectives and may be implemented with data which are available to project planners.     

WEATHER MODIFICATION: AN ECONOMIC ALTERNATIVE FOR AUGMENTING WATER SUPPLIES1

ABSTRACT. Experimental results of cloud seeding in Southwestern Colorado suggest that runoff can be increased by 25 percent over a 3,300 mile area. There is a need to estimate the economic consequences in the Colorado River Basin. The evidence presented suggests that weather modification is an economically feasible means to provide additional water for the basin. Compared with other proposed means of augmenting water supplies, weather modifications appear to be one of the least cost alternatives. A very low proportion of weather modification costs are fixed; thus the program is easily reversible. Also, a relatively small increase in daily precipitation covers the direct costs of operation. Benefits of water produced by weather modification included power production and irrigation of forage crops. In the long run, if additional water is used for higher valued fruit and vegetable production, or for domestic and industrial purposes, its value would rise sharply. Preliminary investigation of extra-market costs and benefits suggests that while they have little effect on the benefit-cost ratio, they may be very important to individuals and groups affected. The distribution of costs and benefits is important as the benefits accrue to downstream users and some of the costs are incurred by Coloradoans. There is a need for further research on the long-run economic effects of weather modification programs, particularly with respect to extra-market factors.     

皖东地区中药材资源的调查、评价与区划

在调查研究的基础上 ,首先分析了皖东地区中药材资源的优势 ,建立了包括利用价值系数、利用现状系数、濒危系数、栽培系数、分布系数、蕴藏系数 6个评价指标的“中药材优先开发”指标体系 ,据此将皖东地区国家和省规定普查的 2 37种中药材确定为一级优先开发的有 6种、二级优先开发的有 79种、三级优先开发的有 96种、暂缓开发的有 5 6种。最后 ,以中药材资源的开发利用与保护为目的 ,将皖东地区划分为低山丘陵药材保护区、浅丘岗地药材开发区、沿湖河药材利用区以及沿淮洼地药材扩大区     

TREE‐RING BASED RECONSTRUCTIONS OF INTERANNUAL TO DECADAL SCALE PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY FOR NORTHEASTERN UTAH SINCE 1226 A.D.1

ABSTRACT: Samples from 107 piñon pines (Pinns edulis) at four sites were used to develop a proxy record of annual (June to June) precipitation spanning the 1226 to 2001 AD interval for the Uinta Basin Watershed of northeastern Utah. The reconstruction reveals significant precipitation variability at interannual to decadal scales. Single‐year dry events before the instrumental period tended to be more severe than those after 1900. In general, decadal scale dry events were longer and more severe prior to 1900. In particular, dry events in the late 13th, 16th, and 18th Centuries surpass the magnitude and duration of droughts seen in the Uinta Basin after 1900. The last four decades of the 20th Century also represent one of the wettest periods in the reconstruction. The proxy record indicates that the instrumental record (approximately 1900 to the Present) underestimates the potential frequency and severity of severe, sustained droughts in this area, while over representing the prominence of wet episodes. In the longer record, the empirical probability of any decadal scale drought exceeding the duration of the 1954 through 1964 drought is 94 percent, while the probability for any wet event exceeding the duration of the 1965 through 1999 wet spell is only 1 percent. Hence, estimates of future water availability in the Uinta Basin and forecasts for exports to the Colorado River, based on the 1961 to 1990 and 1971 to 2000 “normal” periods, may be overly optimistic.     

MODELING DRINKING WATER QUALITY VIOLATIONS WITH BAYESIAN NETWORKS1

ABSTRACT: Compliance violations at community water systems are rare but represent significant human health risks. These risks are mediated by the decision schema of human operators at water treatment facilities. However, causal uncertainty among physical and human factors involved in water quality problems complicates assessment of their probability and severity. This study uses a probabilistic Bayesian network modeling approach to explore the causes of compliance violations in a sample of water treatment systems in Pennsylvania. The model presented here is one of several created by treatment system operators during an expert elicitation process. The expert model alone predicts violations poorly, suggesting that experts make inaccurate quantitative estimates. However, Bayesian networks are capable of combining the subjective expertise of treatment system operators with the objective compliance histories of the facilities they manage, and the expert model accurately predicts violations when trained with historical compliance data. Analysis of the trained network reveals those components of the treatment process, including environmental and system characteristics as well as operator decisions, that play the greatest role in determining the likelihood of major violation types. Among operator decisions, coagulant dosing and filter backwash frequency are the most important determinants of violation likelihood.     

滇东地区未来数年M≥6.0地震的统计预测

从全概率公式出发 ,运用古登堡公式对滇东地区震级频度关系、地震活动性及地震复发周期进行了统计分析 ,认为该地区未来 3～ 4年内有发生M≥ 6.0地震的可能性