宁蒙沿黄地带城镇用地扩展驱动力分析与情景模拟

宁蒙沿黄地带属于中国西北干旱半干旱快速城市化地区,研究这一典型地区的城镇用地扩展对丰富城镇用地扩展机制的理论研究和提供相应政策建议具有理论和现实意义。论文利用Logistic回归分析2000-2005年城镇用地扩展的主要驱动力,计算城镇用地转换适宜度矩阵,结合CA-Markov模型模拟3种情景下城镇用地扩展趋势。结果表明：2000-2005年,城镇用地的主要来源是耕地,其次是草地及极少量农村居民点和工矿用地。对城镇用地变化影响最大的因素依次是邻域内城镇用地比重、年降水量、到2001年国道距离、到水域距离、到2001年省道距离以及到2000年土地利用中耕地、林地和草地的距离。一切照常情景下,2016年宁蒙沿黄地带城镇用地总量约997 km²,主要分布在呼和浩特市区、包头市区等主要城市边缘;规划情景下,城镇用地规模达到1 525 km²,分布格局与一切照常情景类似;生态保护情景下,城镇用地规模总量达到1 480 km²,城镇用地沿交通轴扩展呈组团分布。由此得出主要结论：大城市边缘区和交通线是城镇用地发生的主要影响因素;通过总量控制的区域整体城镇用地规划可以优化区域整体城镇用地扩展格局。     

重庆市重要生态功能区生态系统服务动态变化

借助遥感数据和GIS空间分析技术,选取生物多样性维持、土壤保持、水源涵养和固碳4种生态系统服务建立评估模型,对2000—2010年重庆市域内3个重要生态功能区——三峡库区水源涵养重要区(下称三峡重要区)、秦巴山区水源涵养重要区(下称秦巴重要区)和都市区“四山”生态屏障重要区(下称“四山”重要区)生态系统服务的时空变异特征进行综合研究. 结果表明:①2000—2010年,三峡重要区4种生态系统服务均呈增强趋势. ②秦巴重要区内,生物多样性维持和水源涵养功能总体较好,并且持续增强;固碳功能有所减弱,该时段内固碳功能高等级面积减少了931.90 km2. ③“四山”重要区土壤保持和水源涵养功能有所增强,生物多样性维持和固碳功能略有减弱. ④重庆市重要生态功能区生态系统服务以中和较高等级分布为主,空间差异较大,异质性明显. 生态系统服务较好区域主要分布在渝东北秦巴山区以及中西部植被覆盖较好的山脊;市域中部长寿、垫江、涪陵等区县生态系统服务相对较弱. 10 a间,重庆市重要生态功能区生态系统服务总体呈变好趋势,但局部地区有所减弱,主要表现为秦巴和“四山”重要区固碳功能的降低.      

古夫河着生藻类优势种体积与水质因子的相关性研究

通过研究长江三峡库区古夫河着生藻类优势种体积的变化,探索影响其体积的主要水质因子,为河流水质评价提供依据.于2010年12月至2012年2月,对古夫河着生藻类和地表水采样11次,共鉴定着生藻类197种,检测水质指标10项.选取Mcnaughton优势度指数(Y)>0.02的着生藻类(共30种)作为优势种并计算体积;利用主成分分析(PCA)分析优势种藻类在不同月份的体积变化.结果显示,硅藻门对冷暖季的变化较为敏感.将水质因子与优势种藻类体积进行典范对应分析(CCA),结果显示水质因子与藻类体积相关性大小为:溶解氧>氨氮>叶绿素a>酸碱度>硝态氮>总磷>水温>总氮>总有机碳>化学需氧量.Monte Carlo显著性检验结果为溶解氧和氨氮对着生藻类体积的影响最大,其次为叶绿素a、酸碱度和硝态氮.硅藻门藻类体积的变化可以判断古夫河水体中溶解氧、氨氮、叶绿素a、酸碱度、硝态氮的含量与变化.     

基于DEA和Malmquist指数的煤矿安全投入效率评价

为了系统的评价煤矿安全投入效率,采用DEA（数据包络分析）方法,选取我国1991~2010年煤矿安全投入产出数据构建DEA模型,其中煤矿安全投入指标为采煤机械化程度、工程技术人员百分比、颁布煤矿安全法规数和行业标准,产出指标为煤矿百万吨死亡率。根据构建的DEA模型对每年的效率进行分析和评价,并提出建议。同时运用Malmquist指数（全要素生产力指数）对煤矿安全投入效率进行分解研究。研究结果表明,从静态上看,我国仅有1993年和2010年当年的煤矿安全投入和产出都达到了最优状态,并且随着煤矿安全投入逐年增加,煤矿安全投入技术效率、纯技术效率、规模效率逐年提升。从动态上看,我国煤矿安全投入Malmquist指数的提高对技术的依赖很明显,无论是技术进步还是技术效率的提高都会相应的提高Malmquist指数。     

急冷器建造中的质量保证

本文以百万吨乙烯装置的关键设备裂解气急冷器建造为例,从设计视角对其建造过程中重要环节质量控制进行剖析,详细解读了压力容器建造质量保证体系运行的基本要务。压力容器建造质量保证的关键在于合理制定并严格执行符合设计标准规范要求的质量计划,尤其是建造过程各环节的工艺卡制定与控制点的检查确认要深入到位。如此得出：压力容器建造质量计划的执行既是压力容器质量保证体系有效运行的见证,更是以建造过程控制达到不产生不合格进而实现压力容器本质安全的根本保证。     

变换炉的风险评估技术

在设计阶段对压力容器出具风险评估报告会增加设计难度,也对设计人员有了更高的要求。针对如何具体实施风险评估,本文提出了煤化工行业变换炉的风险评估的技术,以便与同行交流,旨在推广风险评估技术,促进风险评估技术的应用推广。     

Determination of polychlorinated biphenyl and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon marine regional Sediment Quality Guidelines within the European Water Framework Directive

Marine regional Sediment Quality Guidelines (SQG) for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) from the Basque coast (SE Bay of Biscay) were determined, on the basis of sediment chemistry, toxicity and benthic community disturbance from analysis of 756 estuarine and coastal samples. The SQG were calculated using a percentile approach (based upon effect and non-effect data), using non-normalised and normalised concentration, by total organic carbon. However, normalisation by total organic carbon did not result in any improvement in accuracy compared with non-normalised values. Hence, this study proposes non-normalised SQG values for assessment of the chemical and physicochemical status in marine waters in the Basque Country, within the Water Framework Directive: 24.6–29 μg kg^?1 for total PCBs; 164–285 μg kg^?1 for low molecular weight PAH; 922–1537 μg kg^?1 for high molecular weight PAH; and 1607–2617 μg kg^?1 for total PAH.     

The principal–agent model with multilateral externalities: An application to climate agreements

We consider contracting of a principal with an agent if multilateral externalities are present. The motivating example is that of an international climate agreement given private information about the willingness-to-pay (WTP) for emissions abatement. Due to multilateral externalities the principal uses her own emissions besides subsidies to incentivize the agent and to assure his participation. Optimal contracts equalize marginal abatement costs and, thus, can be implemented by a system of competitive permit trading. Moreover, optimal contracts can include a boundary part (i.e., the endogenous, type dependent participation constraint is binding), which is not a copy of the outside option of no contract. Compared to this outside option, a contract can increase emissions of the principal for types with a low WTP, and reduce her payoff for high types. Subsidies can be constant or even decreasing in emission reductions, and turn negative so that the agent reduces emissions and pays the principal.     

Continuous performance assessment and improvement of integrated HSE and maintenance systems by multivariate analysis in gas transmission units

In this study, an integrated “Health, Safety, and Environment (HSE)” and maintenance systems are presented. Multivariate analysis is used for continuous performance assessment and improvement of these systems. The two subjects of “Maintenance System” and “HSE” have been individually investigated several times in different studies. However, few studies have been done to integrate these two systems and provide an integrated system for their implementation. This study evaluates current maintenance and HSE systems of a Gas Transmission Unit by Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Moreover, decision making units (DMUs) are examined and ranked. Employees are considered as DMUs. This is done through investigating and measuring their efficiencies and identifying the inefficient and less-efficient units. Since an increase in the number of inputs does not lead to an increase in the number of outputs with the same scale, an output-oriented DEA with a Variable Returns to Scale (VRS) is used. The Fuzzy DEA (FDEA) is also used in this research to decrease uncertainty existing in qualitative indicators and human error. Finally, suggestions are given to improve those DMUs. The managers and employees of the gas transmission unit constitute the statistical population of the study. To achieve the objectives of this study, standard questionnaires with respect to HSE and Maintenance system are completed by operators. The proposed approach would help policy makers and top managers of Gas Transmission Company to have a more comprehensive and thorough understanding the working conditions with respect to the maintenance and HSE features.     

Uncertainties in a risk management context in early phases of offshore petroleum field development

The current risk management approach for the Norwegian offshore petroleum industry came into effect in 2001 and has been stable with minor changes for 15 years. Relatively few new installations were slated for development until quite recently, and several new projects have been started in the last few years. The paper considers the risk management approach in the pre-FEED phase and builds on two case studies selected from the most recent cases. These case studies have been evaluated with respect to how uncertainties are considered in the early phase, based on the submission of the Plan for Development and Operation, their evaluations by authorities and the supporting documents. Both case studies involve new concepts for which there is no experience from similar environments and/or water depths. In spite of what could have been expected, the case studies conclude that uncertainties have not been in focus at all during concept development. This appears to be definitely the case for the licensees, but also to be the case for the authorities. Some suggestions are presented for what could have been considered by the licensees and authorities.