The key elements analysis of Guangdong & Shenzhen ETS & tips for China national ETS construction

The only joint effort area of provincial and municipal governments resides in Guangdong Province and Shenzhen City in China’s carbon emission trading system (ETS) pilots, which characterize the national carbon ETS plots. The present study on the operating experience from this area has important reference value for the national carbon ETS. Analysis and comparison of the key elements show many differences in coverage, total allowance, allowance allocation, and MRV mechanism between Guangdong and Shenzhen carbon ETS. The present study provides the following explanation: (1) the design characteristics of carbon ETS (e.g. coverage, total quotas, the allocation, and MRV mechanism) depend on the local geographical conditions and policy goals. The differences of economic structure in Guangdong Province and Shenzhen City result in different coverage, which then result in differences in other management elements. (2) The operating state of the carbon market is affected by overall design of carbon ETS: in the case of tighter total allowance, lower proportion of China Certified Emission Reductions, and harsher punishment, the carbon market is relatively active, which intends to produce carbon financial market. Based on deep analysis of operation characteristics of carbon ETS in Guangdong and Shenzhen, the present study suggests that (1) the allowance should be allocated freely at the beginning stage and then gradually transited to the voluntary paid auction; (2) the allowances assigned to companies shall be linked up with their energy-saving objectives; (3) the output fluctuations and economic influence on the allowance allocation should be properly handled to maintain the fairness and consistence of allowance allocation standards; (4) stable public expectation is one of the key elements to maintain the regular operation of carbon ETS; (5) constrained carbon emission behavior outside ETS can contribute to social justice; and (6) the improvement of professional skills of relevant personnel in the enterprise and independent third party can enhance carbon emissions data reliability.     

A highly resolved temporal and spatial air pollutant emission inventory for the Pearl River Delta region, China and its uncertainty assessment

A highly resolved temporal and spatial Pearl River Delta (PRD) regional emission inventory for the year 2006 was developed with the use of best available domestic emission factors and activity data. The inventory covers major emission sources in the region and a bottom–up approach was adopted to compile the inventory for those sources where possible. The results show that the estimates for SO₂, NO_x, CO, PM₁₀, PM_2.5 and VOC emissions in the PRD region for the year 2006 are 711.4 kt, 891.9 kt, 3840.6 kt, 418.4 kt, 204.6 kt, and 1180.1 kt, respectively. About 91.4% of SO₂ emissions were from power plant and industrial sources, and 87.2% of NO_x emissions were from power plant and mobile sources. The industrial, mobile and power plant sources are major contributors to PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 emissions, accounting for 97.7% of the total PM₁₀ and 97.2% of PM_2.5 emissions, respectively. Mobile, biogenic and VOC product-related sources are responsible for 90.5% of the total VOC emissions. The emissions are spatially allocated onto grid cells with a resolution of 3 km × 3 km, showing that anthropogenic air pollutant emissions are mainly distributed over PRD central-southern city cluster areas. The preliminary temporal profiles were established for the power plant, industrial and on-road mobile sources. There is relatively low uncertainty in SO₂ emission estimates with a range of −16% to +21% from power plant sources, medium to high uncertainty for the NO_x emissions, and high uncertainties in the VOC, PM_2.5, PM₁₀ and CO emissions.     

贯通巷道风流流场数值模拟若干关键问题研究

根据计算流体力学基本理论,利用计算流体动力学(CFD)软件Fluent,运用三维k-ε湍流模型对贯通型巷道风流流场数值模拟中风流入口、出口位置对巷道风流流场分布的影响、湍动能k及湍动能耗散率ε的取值对模拟结果的影响等进行考察。通过研究确定模拟巷道的流体力学入口长度,确定模拟巷道出口位置;湍动能k及湍动能耗散率ε的取值对入口附近流动还没有充分发展区域拟解算的结果影响较大,而对流动充分发展的区域影响较小。将数值模拟风速值与理论计算风速值进行对比,模拟结果与计算结果非常一致,验证了数值模拟方法的正确性,为研究贯通型巷道风流传质过程、瓦斯运移规律及通风排污效率等提供了理论基础。     

Climate dynamics and extreme precipitation and flood events in Central Europe

Past changes and possible future variations in the nature of extreme precipitation and flood events in Central Europe and the Alpine region are examined from a physical standpoint. An overview is given of the following key contributory physical processes: (1) the variability of the large-scale atmospheric flow and the associated changes of the North-Atlantic storm track; (2) the feedback process between climate warming and the water cycle, and in particular the potential for more frequent heavy precipitation events; and (3) the catchment-scale hydrological processes associated with variations in major river flooding events and that are related to land-use changes, river training measures, and shifts in the proportion of rain to snowfall. In this context an account is provided of the possible future forecasting and warning methodologies based upon high-resolution weather prediction and runoff models. Also consideration is given to the detectability of past (future) changes in observed (modeled) extreme events. It is shown that their rarity and natural fluctuation largely impedes a detection of systematic variations. These effects restrict trend analysis of such events to return periods of below a few months. An illustration using daily precipitation from the Swiss Alps does yield evidence for pronounced trends of intense precipitation events (return period 30 days), while trends of stronger event classes are not detectable (but nevertheless can not be excluded). The small detection probability for extreme events limits possible mitigation of future damage costs through an abatement of climate change alone, and points to the desirability of developing improved early forecasting/warning systems as an additional no-regret strategy. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

提高乌鲁木齐市水磨沟区植被覆盖率的设想

通过对乌鲁木齐市水磨沟区植被的现状调查和对存在问题的分析,结合生态示范区建设指标体系,提出提高该区植被覆盖率及改善生态环境的设想。     

三峡库区典型消落带冬季多环芳烃大气-植物/土壤交换过程与通量

三峡大坝每年周期性“蓄水-放水”,形成水位落差巨大的消落带,库区内污染物环境地球化学行为随之发生变化.以冬季淹没期消落带多环芳烃为研究对象,采集成对大气(n=16)、植物(n=12)和土壤样品(n=12),采用气相色谱/质谱法(GC/MS),分析USEPA 16PAHs浓度水平,解析来源,估算大气地表、大气-植物等多介质交换通量.结果表明:大气、土壤和植物中PAHs浓度为5.65～13.47ng/m³、70.86～13 5.44ng/g和78.23～1084.72ng/g,平均值分别为(8.58±2.78) ng/m³、(90.10±22.18) ng/g和(360.36±309.54) ng/g.大气中PAHs以2～3环为主(62.3%),植物中PAHs以3～4环为主(73.7%),土壤中PAHs以3环和5环为主(52.1%).特征分子比值法揭示煤、生物质燃烧是植物PAHs的主要来源,以石油为主的化石燃料燃烧是大气和土壤PAHs主要来源.“一室模型”表明,植物吸收PAHs的主要途径为植物-气相之间动态平衡限制下的气沉降.“逸度模型”表明,3...     

华东森林及高山背景区域SO2、NOx、CO本底特征

国家大气背景监测福建武夷山站是中国华东区域背景站点之一,可代表华东森林及高山区域背景状况。为了解该区域的大气背景状况,评估区域污染现状以及污染物输送在区域污染中的作用,选取福建武夷山背景站2011年3月至2012年2月主要气体污染物（SO₂、NO_x、CO）为期1年的监测数据,研究各污染物在不同时间尺度的浓度变化特征和相关关系,以及与气象因子的相关关系,并利用后向轨迹模式探讨区域输送对华东森林及高山背景区域各气体污染物质量浓度的影响。结果表明,武夷山背景点监测期间SO₂、NO_x、CO的平均质量浓度分别为3.9、5.1、409.8 μg/m³,且具有明显的季节变化特征,春、冬季明显高于夏、秋季;三者日变化幅度均很小,呈现出单谷型分布型态,说明武夷山背景点受人为活动的影响很小,主要受气象条件影响;相关性分析结果显示,SO₂与NO_x浓度相关性较好,与湿度有较好的负相关,与风速在冬季具有一定的正相关,NO_x与CO浓度在秋季和冬季的相关性较好,且二者与温度的负相关性较好。后向轨迹分析结果表明,SO₂全年最大浓度峰值主要来自北方采暖季燃煤排放的远距离输送影响,NO_x、CO全年最大值则源于生物质燃烧的远距离输送影响。     

京津冀典型城市采暖季颗粒物浓度与元素分布特征

选择京津冀地区3个典型城市和从南至北的4个国家大气背景站作为研究对象,收集采暖季空气颗粒物PM2.5、PM10样品,微波消解-ICP-MS法分析了样品中的68种元素。结果表明,北京、天津、石家庄PM2.5和PM10日均质量浓度均高于国家二级标准限值和背景点,一元线性回归分析结果表明,PM10与PM2.5质量浓度呈线性相关,Na、Mg、Al、S、K、Ca、Fe质量浓度为0.1~10μg/m3,Si、P、Ti、Mn、Ni、Cu、Zn、Ba、Pb质量浓度为10~100 ng/m3,其他元素质量浓度为0.01~10 ng/m3或未检出。在元素构成上,S、Na、Al、K、Fe、Mg、Ca、P、Si等是主要元素,元素含量均大于1%。其他微量元素每种元素含量为0.1%~1%。14种重点防控重金属在PM2.5中的吸附显著高于PM10,主要来源于燃煤、燃油、工业排放、机动车尾气等。     

汉丹江(陕西段)水质变化特征分析

基于2008—2012年陕西省境内汉江、丹江干流14个断面的水质监测数据,采用单因子评价法、平均综合污染指数法和秩相关系数法等对该段水体的水质变化特征进行研究。结果表明,汉丹江(陕西段)断面水质以Ⅱ类、Ⅲ类为主,水质总体为优;水质综合污染状况呈下降趋势,其中汉江下降趋势显著;水质综合污染状况空间差异和区域分布特征明显,城区段污染大于郊区,各行政区段河流下游污染大于上游。流域水质主要受有机污染和营养盐因子影响,水体污染源主要来自城镇生活源和农业面源,工业源占比不大且排放行业较为集中。     

2013-2017年京津冀区域PM2.5浓度变化特征

利用2013-2017年京津冀区域13个城市PM_2.5监测数据,综合探讨了该区域PM_2.5浓度的时空变化特征。结果表明：京津冀区域PM_2.5污染整体较重,但治理成效显著,2013-2017年区域PM_2.5年均质量浓度分别为106、93、77、71、64 μg/m³,完成《大气污染防治行动计划》PM_2.5浓度下降25%左右的目标;13个城市PM_2.5浓度各百分位数总体呈现下降趋势,且随百分位数增大而下降速率加大,PM_2.5年均质量浓度平均每年下降10.6 μg/m³,污染严重的太行山沿线城市邢台、石家庄、邯郸3个城市平均每年分别下降20.3、16.1、13.9 μg/m³;京津冀区域PM_2.5重度污染天数比例分别为19.9%、16.6%、9.5%、9.0%、7.0%,呈下降趋势。2013-2017年京津冀区域PM_2.5平均质量浓度与非重度污染天相比升高19 μg/m³,PM_2.5重度污染天平均质量浓度较非重度污染天时高244.4%。