Surface modelling of global terrestrial ecosystems under three climate change scenarios

A high accuracy and speed method (HASM) of surface modelling is developed to find a solution for error problem and to improve computation speed. A digital elevation model (DEM) is established on spatial resolution of 13.5 km × 13.5 km. Regression formulations among temperature, elevation and latitude are simulated in terms of data from 2766 weather observation stations scattered over the world by using the 13.5 km × 13.5 km DEM as auxiliary data. Three climate scenarios of HadCM3 are refined from spatial resolution of 405 km × 270 km to 13.5 km × 13.5 km in terms of the regression formulations. HASM is employed to simulate surfaces of mean annual bio-temperature, mean annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration ratio during the periods from 1961 to 1990 (T₁), from 2010 to 2039 (T₂), from 2040 to 2069 (T₃), and from 2070 to 2099 (T₄) on spatial resolution of 13.5 km × 13.5 km. Three scenarios of terrestrial ecosystems on global level are finally developed on the basis of the simulated climate surfaces. The scenarios show that all polar/nival, subpolar/alpine and cold ecosystem types would continuously shrink and all tropical types, except tropical rain forest in scenario A1Fi, would expand because of the climate warming. Especially at least 80% of moist tundra and 22% of nival area might disappear in period T₄ comparing with the ones in the period T₁. Tropical thorn woodland might increase by more than 97%. Subpolar/alpine moist tundra would be the most sensitive ecosystem type because its area would have the rapidest decreasing rate and its mean center would shift the longest distance towards west. Subpolar/alpine moist tundra might be able to serve as an indicator of climatic change. In general, climate change would lead to a continuous reduction of ecological diversity.     

What does ecological modelling model? A proposed classification of ecological niche models based on their underlying methods

Species distribution model is the term most frequently used in ecological modelling, but other authors used instead predictive habitat distribution model or species-habitat models. A consensual ecological modelling terminology that avoids misunderstandings and takes into account the ecological niche theory does not exist at present. Moreover, different studies differ in the type of niche that is represented by similar distribution models. I propose to use as standard ecological modelling terminology the terms “ecological niche”, “potential niche”, “realized niche” models (for modelling their respective niches), and “habitat suitability map” (for the output of the niche models). Therefore, the user can understand more easily that models always forecast species’ niche and relate more closely the different types of niche models.     

浅议郴州市废弃矿山生态恢复途径

郴州市矿产资源丰富,采矿业发达,矿山资源开发导致了环境污染、生态破坏等一系列问题,矿山废弃地的生态恢复及景观重建已成为郴州市经济和社会发展需要迫切解决的问题之一.概括地介绍了郴州市的基本状况,分析了郴州市采矿业的无序发展对生态环境的影响,并针对矿山废弃地环境的污染问题,探索性地提出了郴州市废弃矿山生态恢复的途径.     

城市高温灾害性天气影响分析与危害评估——以长春市为例

以长春市1951-2008年的气象资料为基础,分析了长春市高温灾害性天气的时空分布特征及气温变暖趋势,总结了长春市温度变化与城市人口数量、GDP及供电量之间的关系,最终建立了长春市高温灾害性天气影响及危害评估的指标体系。     

广元市次生地质灾害分布特征及影响因素分析——以朝天区为例

四川省广元市朝天区是汶川8.0级地震的重灾区之一,由地震触发的崩塌、滑坡等次生地质灾害对人民群众生命财产安全构成巨大威胁。基于实地调查,对震后地质灾害隐患点进行了统计分析,指出了地震地质灾害的分布特征,并对其影响因素进行了深入分析。区内地震地质灾害点多分布在海拔800 m以上的陡坡或陡崖部位,并沿龙门山断裂带、嘉陵江水系及交通路线呈线状或带状分布。地震地质灾害的发生是内外力共同作用结果,其中地震力和断裂构造带对地质灾害发生起着决定性的作用,而地层岩性对灾种起关键性的作用,滑坡多发育在页岩、片岩、板岩、千枚岩等软岩分布区,崩塌多发育在灰岩、砂岩等硬岩分布区。     

巴中北部岩溶山区地下水化学特征及演化分析

为研究我国南、北岩溶发育过渡带地下水的水文地球化学特征及形成机制.采集巴中市北部双峰垭地区25组地下水样品,运用描述性统计分析、变异系数、Schoeller图、舒卡列夫分类、Piper图解、Gibbs与离子比例系数等方法对研究区岩溶水化学及分布特征进行分析,并探讨控制地下水化学演化的主要过程.结果表明,研究区南、北地下水存在一定的差异,北区地下水阴阳离子以HCO3-、Ca2+和Mg2+为主,水化学类型以HCO3-Ca·Mg型为主,南区地下水阴阳离子以HCO3-和Ca2+为主,水化学类型以HCO3-Ca型为主;地下水水文地球化学演化过程均受水-岩作用和阳离子交替吸附作用的控制,但对比之下南区蒸发结晶作用比北区更加强烈,北区大气降雨作用更加显著;气候与岩性的差异是导致研究区南、北部地下水化学存在差异的主要原因.     

绵阳市大气污染物浓度变化特征及相关性分析

随着我国工业化、城市化和机动化的高速发展,大气环境质量越来越受民众关注,我国已建成国控—省控—市控—县控四级环境空气自动监测网络,监测项目包括SO2、NO2、CO、O3、PM2.5和PM10.基于2018年绵阳市环境空气监测数据、颗粒物化学组分及气象资料分析上述6个监测项目年均、季度、月均、日均及每日最大小时浓度变化特征,并进一步探讨污染物浓度与气象条件的相关性,结合颗粒物化学组分对产生原因进行剖析.结果表明:绵阳市冬季环境空气质量较差,夏季相对较好.Pearson相关性分析表明:SO2、NO2、CO和颗粒物(PM2.5和PM10)之间存在显著相关性,冬季PM2.5与SO2、NO2的相关系数分别为0.610和0.635,PM10与SO2、NO2的相关系数分别为0.655和0.655,颗粒物主要化学组分为硫酸盐、硝酸盐、铵盐和二次有机气溶胶,颗粒物二次转化尤为明显,冬季需重点管控颗粒物;春季和夏季O3与PM2.5、PM10呈显著正相关,需做好颗粒物和O3的协同管控.O3每日最大小时浓度多集中在13:00?—?18:00,其他污染物每日最大小时浓度多集中于08:00?—?12:00和20:00?—?24:00,同时NO2在20:00?—?24:00出现每日最大小时浓度的频次占67.1％,控制机动车等污染源排放尤为重要.     

“十四五”时期生态环境重大制度政策创新的思考

用最严格的制度、最严密的法治保护生态环境,需要加快构建以治理体系和治理能力现代化为保障的生态文明制度体系。要增加制度供给,需从四个方面加快制度创新:一是发挥市场机制,健全多元体系;二是强化行政管理,落实地方责任;三是发挥社会机制,引导社会参与;四是强化法制建设,筑牢创新基础。     

长沙市医疗垃圾管理处置状况及特性研究

报道了对长沙市5所医院为期一个月的研究结果，内容包括：医疗垃圾管理处置现状；医疗垃圾类型及产量；门诊人数、住院人数及垃圾量的变化规律；住院病人和门诊病人的垃圾产率及中药渣产率；传染性垃圾与生活垃圾的比例及医疗垃圾的组成，指出了现行医疗垃圾管理处置需要改进和提高之处，为建立长沙市医疗垃圾集中处理示范工程提供了依据。     

Developing sustainable products and services

In light of increasing pressures to adopt a more sustainable approach to product design and manufacture, the requirement to develop sustainable products is one of the key challenges facing industry in the 21st century. Hence, the concept of developing sustainable products as well as services is evolving as a key element of Cleaner Production. Sustainable product development initiatives (mainly through eco-design) have been evolving for some time to support companies develop more sustainable products. Ireland has been running the highly successful Environmentally Superior Products (ESP) initiative that supports industrial companies to incorporate a more sustainable approach to the development of products and/or services. The lessons learned from the ESP and other global Sustainable Product and Service Developments in industry and research, are being used to develop a method for effective sustainable product and/or service development (SPSD) in industry. The method is designed to provide pragmatic guidance to business and industry for developing sustainable products and services as well as incorporating this approach within existing corporate strategy, cleaner production and product development systems. This method is being developed by the authors at the Environmental Policy and Management Group (EPMG), Department of Environmental Science and Technology, Imperial College London, UK in conjunction with industry and practitioners. The method provides a framework for implementing SPSD throughout the entire lifecycle of a product and/or service. It can be used to identify, assess and implement the options for optimum sustainability in the design and development of a product and/or service. This paper describes the key features of this method.