Impacts of interannual climate variability on past and future forest composition

Numerous analyses of the possible impacts of future climatic changes on tree species composition have been published for both lowland and high-elevation forests. Most of these studies were based on the application of forest "gap" models, and the vast majority of them considered only changes in the average of climatic parameters over time. In this study, we use a unique data set on reconstructed past climatic variations to analyse forest dynamics simulated by the forest gap model ForClim. This analysis forms the basis for a systematic exploration of the ecological effects of changing means vs. changing variability of climate on central European forests. A reconstruction of historical climate covering the last 470 years in the Swiss lowlands (ClimIndex) is extrapolated to a transect across the alpine (cold) treeline and used to simulate the influence of climate variations on the time scale of decades on forest biomass and tree species composition at both sites. While the simulation at the low-elevation site shows little sensitivity to climate variations, the results from upper subalpine forests suggest that two major dieback events would have occurred at elevations above the current but below the climatic tree line, induced by clusters of exceptionally cold summers. The results are in agreement with available dendrochronological data and with documentary evidence on massive negative impacts on flora and fauna at high elevations during these periods. We conclude that ForClim is capable of capturing the effects on tree population dynamics of climate variability at these sites as reconstructed from the ClimIndex record. A factorial design is used to address the sensitivity of ForClim to changes of the long-term averages vs. changes of the variability of monthly temperature and precipitation data. To this end, the simulated tree species composition of near-natural forests is examined along a climate gradient in Europe. The results indicate that there are three types of forest response: (1) little sensitivity to both kinds of change, (2) strong sensitivity to changes in the means, but little sensitivity to changing variability, and (3) strong sensitivity to changing variability at least in parts of the examined climate space. Half of the cases investigated fall under the third category, suggesting that emphasis should be placed on also assessing the sensitivity of ecosystems to future changes in climate variability rather than on changes of average values alone. Electronic Publication     

长江流域生态环境的保护与生态城市建设

从城市经济系统来看,生态城市既要保证经济的持续增长,更要保证增长率的质量。也就是说,生态城市要有合理的产业结构、能源结构和生产而局,使城市的经济系统和生态系统能协调发展,形成良性循环,实现城市经济社会与生态环境效益的统一。长江流域生态环境的恶化已经严重影响到整个长江流域经济的发展。长江流域生态城市建设就是把环境发展与生产力发展联系起来是以各大城市生态建设为主导把各个大城市建设成为全流域的生态城市中     

事故致因理论的比较分析

本文对事故致因理论进行了总结并对其优缺点进行了介绍,对一些主要的事故致因理论进行了比较,分析了其异同,提出了各自的特点和适用条件,并对其理论发展前景进行了展望。运用事故致因理论对具体事故案例进行了分析,找出了事故原因,提出了预防措施。     

Urban waterfowl population: Ecological evaluation of management and planning

An urban population of ducks in Puyallup, Washington, USA was studied for 14 consecutive months beginning in November 1978. Observations were made weekly from four study sites where ducks would congregate at early morning hours. Factors contributing to the presence of waterfowl in Puyallyup included abundant food supplies and a creek corridor that connected fragmented habitats in the urban area to the larger rural populations of waterfowl. Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) were the most abundant of the 13 species observed and were the only ducks remaining during the nesting season. Habitat size and complexity were important factors influencing the species diversity of a particular site. Nesting success of mallards was poor due to limited distribution of nesting habitat, intraspecific aggression, and human disturbance. Both site-specific and more broad-based strategies are suggested for managing and planning for duck populations in urban areas.     

TOPSIS法在大气环境质量评价中的应用

应用多目标决策中的TOPSIS法(即逼近于理想解的排序方法)对湖南长沙等十城市的大气环境质量进行评价,并与欧几里德贴近度法和上海指数法相比较,认为该评价方法对比较多个城市(或多个监测点,下同)的大气环境质量的优劣,比欧几里德贴近度法和上海指数法均优越.     

Examining the determinants of public environmental concern: Evidence from national public surveys

Early research showed that citizens’ environmental concern in the United States was linked to three individual-level factors: socio-demographic variables, political orientations, and personal beliefs or worldviews about human-nature relations. Given many changes in the American society over the last several decades, one important, yet unanswered question is whether these factors still drive public environmental concern in the United States today, and if so, to what extent. This study, drawing from extant theoretical and empirical studies, aims to reinvestigate the determinants of citizens’ environmental concern by employing three national public surveys conducted in 2004, 2007, and 2013. Our data analyses confirm and expand the findings of previous research on the significance and importance of political ideology, fundamental beliefs about human-nature relations, and certain socioeconomic factors such as gender and race in explaining citizens’ environmental concern. More specifically, political liberals, people with higher New Ecological Paradigm values, females, and Non-Whites tend to be more concerned about environmental problems than their counterparts are. Our data analyses also reveal some interesting findings when compared to many previous studies: first, our data indicate a positive relationship between age and environmental concern, suggesting that older people in the United States are more concerned about the environment than younger adults; second, unlike most past research showing a positive Education-Environmental Concern relationship, our study suggests that education level seems to have little effect in explaining citizens’ environmental concern measured in this study. Key implications for environmental policymaking and recommendations for future research are discussed in the conclusion.     

化学反应器安全运行技术的发展现状

从放热化学反应的安全技术观点出发 ,分析了放热化学反应器失控的技术原因、化学反应物泄漏对人员和环境造成的危害、现有安全技术措施存在的问题 ;介绍了基于射流原理的喷射汽化和非汽化冷却液体的直接冷却方法 ;还展望了化学反应器安全技术的发展方向。     

我国安全生产的形势和任务

论述了我国安全生产工作发展概况与安全的关系 ,分析了我国安全生产状况 ;指出了我国安全生产面临的主要难点 ;提出了我国安全生产工作的重任所在 ;笔者认为 ,只要从实际出发 ,坚持改革、标本兼治和技术创新 ,发挥政府、企业、劳动者三方协调机制的作用 ,借鉴和吸收国际成功经验 ,我国安全生产水平是会列于世界先进行列的。     

电厂机组大修的安全管理及保障措施

针对电厂机组大(小)修中所遇到的安全管理方面的各种实际问题,提出了针对性强、可操作性强、实用有效的防范措施和管理方法.     

职业安全卫生标准体系建设初探

职业安全卫生标准体系是企业安全科研生产工作的基础 ,是推广试行职业安全卫生管理体系 (OHSMS)的有效技术支撑条件。笔者通过分析职业安全卫生标准应用的实际 ,探索性地提出建立适应企业职业安全卫生管理、研究以及 OHSMS需要的标准化管理体系 ;论述并研讨该体系建立的思路、原则和查询方法以及应用过程的管理 ;以此为职业安全卫生管理、研究和试行OHSMS奠定基础并提供有益的帮助。