战略环境评价在内蒙古“十一五”规划中的应用——以水环境为例

实施战略环境评价（SEA）,充分考虑战略的环境影响是全面落实我国可持续发展战略的前提和重要保证。内蒙古“十一五”规划SEA实现了真正意义上的战略环评。本文以水环境为例,运用情景分析法、压力分析法探讨了战略环境评价水环境压力的变化。引进容量承压度的概念,分析了内蒙古自治区经过“十一五”5年的发展重点区域水环境容量承压度的变化。计算结果表明,与2004年水环境压力相比,内蒙古“十一五”规划重点发展区域氨氮压力增大,COD压力变化较小。根据压力变化提出了水环境影响减缓措施。     

Reflecting ecological criteria in laws supporting the Baja to Bering Sea marine protected areas network case study

Canadian and US marine conservation law, and other related law, was analyzed to determine if it reflected ecological criteria needed to implement connectivity among marine protected areas of the northeast Pacific in the proposed trilateral Baja to Bering Sea (B2B) initiative. The analysis included both nations’ federal laws and those of California, Oregon, Washington, Alaska, and British Columbia. While legal provisions exist already to implement marine protected areas for varying reasons, there is little capacity in most laws to create connectivity among them for conservation purposes. Only California's legislation contained explicit provisions for all the criteria. Other federal, state, and provincial laws, while containing provisions for species at risk and vulnerable habitats, generally lacked explicit provisions for the vital criteria, size of area, migratory patterns, and recruitment patterns. Implementation, future management, and protection of the proposed B2B marine network would be facilitated by amendment of both Canadian and US laws. Some of the ecological criteria are already implied implicitly or vaguely, but they need to be made explicit in the amended law. The legislative model of California could serve as a template for amending the laws of other jurisdictions in the B2B venture.     

基于GIS技术的生态环境脆弱性模糊综合评价

研究过程中摒弃了以往生态环境脆弱性分析中常有的以乡、镇为研究单元的传统模式,改用栅格单元为基本研究单元,切实反映了区域自然环境特征的非均衡性和连续性,使研究结果打破行政区界限从而具有＂空间性＂;并基于栅格单元首次提出了将＂地理信息系统技术＂和＂AHP-模糊综合评价模型＂互相融合的生态环境脆弱性研究的＂分解-合成＂新方法,使得原本数据信息有限的模糊矩阵扩展成包含大量网格信息的巨型空间矩阵,较好的解决了图层属性单一化与模糊隶属最大原则之间的矛盾。文章从＂模糊隶属度＂层面进行生态环境脆弱性综合分析评价。     

成都龙泉山地区建设用地生态适宜性评价

随着景观格局与生态过程之间的关系日益受到重视,传统的评价方法已经不能满足生态适宜性评价的发展需要。本文以成都市龙泉山地区为例,从景观类型、生态功能、生态价值、土壤侵蚀敏感性和地质灾害敏感性5个方面建立评价指标体系,分别采用最小累积阻力模型和模糊综合评判法描述水平生态过程和垂直生态过程下的生态适宜性,综合两种评价结果进行建设用地的生态适宜性评价。研究结果表明,模型机理的差异使评价结果有着很大的区别,两种方法的综合应用可以有效弥补彼此的不足,本文将研究区的生态适宜性评价结果划分为禁止开发区、严格限建区、一般限建区、重点开发区和优化开发区5个分区,各区的面积分别为259．70km^2、793．89km2、1220．35km2、739．68km2和490．42km2。以往的生态适宜性评价方法往往单一地考虑水平或者垂直生态过程,本文构建的这种综合水平和垂直生态过程的评价方法为生态适宜性评价的方法研究提供了有益的尝试和补充。     

Ecological risk assessment of pesticide residues in Taihu Lake wetland, China

As a major ecosystem type, wetland provides invaluable ecological services. Environmental pollution, especially pesticides pollution should be paid more attention to keep wetlands healthy. Based on the risk quotient method, coupled with a probabilistic risk assessment model, this paper proposed a methodology suitable for ecological risk assessment of pesticide residues for wetland ecosystems. As an important industrializing and ecologically vulnerable area in China, the Taihu Lake wetland was chosen for the case study. The risks of eight pesticides in Taihu Lake wetland were assessed, as single substances and in mixtures. The assessment indicates that risks of the representative species are not significant. In general, the herbicide is found to be more toxic for algae, whereas insecticides pose more risks to zooplankton, insect and fish. For each pesticide in the wetland, the ecological risk it poses is acceptable. But the combined ecological risk posed by mixture can harm more than 10% of species of the wetland ecosystem, mainly dominated by dichlorvos, dimethoate and malathion contributions. These results imply that pesticide residues have been posing pressures on the ecosystem of the Taihu Lake wetland. It is recommended that proper countermeasures should be implemented to reduce the risks.     

Weak indirect effects inherent to nitrogen biogeochemical cycling within anthropogenic ecosystems: A network environ analysis

Indirect effects are assumed to be the major causes of the complexity and stability of ecological networks. The complexity of urban-rural complexes (URCs) could also be attributed to the indirect effects associated with human activities. No studies, however, have quantified the strength of indirect effects in relation to urban biogeochemistry. A network environ analysis (NEA) was used for this study to investigate and compare indirect effects in relation to the nitrogen (N) cycling networks of 22 natural ecosystems and five URCs. Results show that indirect effects were proven to be weak for URC N cycling networks (accounting for only ∼2% of the overall effects measured in natural ecosystems). The weak indirect effects found provide a counterexample for the hypothesis that indirect effects are in fact the dominant components of biogeochemical networks. It also implies that human activity in itself does not always raise the complexity of ecological processes as previously suggested. Weak indirect effects also lead to perturbation fragility for URC N cycles (where the decay rate is greater in comparison to natural ecosystems by a factor of 13). In order to improve the robustness and efficiency of URC biogeochemical cycling, a knockout analysis was carried out. By comparing results after removing single interactions between natural ecosystems and URCs it was found that the loss of indirect effects require cooperative strategies to optimize N cycling networks within URCs.     

Surface modelling of global terrestrial ecosystems under three climate change scenarios

A high accuracy and speed method (HASM) of surface modelling is developed to find a solution for error problem and to improve computation speed. A digital elevation model (DEM) is established on spatial resolution of 13.5 km × 13.5 km. Regression formulations among temperature, elevation and latitude are simulated in terms of data from 2766 weather observation stations scattered over the world by using the 13.5 km × 13.5 km DEM as auxiliary data. Three climate scenarios of HadCM3 are refined from spatial resolution of 405 km × 270 km to 13.5 km × 13.5 km in terms of the regression formulations. HASM is employed to simulate surfaces of mean annual bio-temperature, mean annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration ratio during the periods from 1961 to 1990 (T₁), from 2010 to 2039 (T₂), from 2040 to 2069 (T₃), and from 2070 to 2099 (T₄) on spatial resolution of 13.5 km × 13.5 km. Three scenarios of terrestrial ecosystems on global level are finally developed on the basis of the simulated climate surfaces. The scenarios show that all polar/nival, subpolar/alpine and cold ecosystem types would continuously shrink and all tropical types, except tropical rain forest in scenario A1Fi, would expand because of the climate warming. Especially at least 80% of moist tundra and 22% of nival area might disappear in period T₄ comparing with the ones in the period T₁. Tropical thorn woodland might increase by more than 97%. Subpolar/alpine moist tundra would be the most sensitive ecosystem type because its area would have the rapidest decreasing rate and its mean center would shift the longest distance towards west. Subpolar/alpine moist tundra might be able to serve as an indicator of climatic change. In general, climate change would lead to a continuous reduction of ecological diversity.     

Integrating soil carbon cycling with that of nitrogen and phosphorus in the watershed model SWAT: Theory and model testing

In this paper we describe and test a sub-model that integrates the cycling of carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) watershed model. The core of the sub-model is a multi-layer, one-pool soil organic carbon (S_C) algorithm, in which the decomposition rate of S_C and input rate to S_C (through decomposition and humification of residues) depend on the current size of S_C. The organic N and P fluxes are coupled to that of C and depend on the available mineral N and P, and the C:N and N:P ratios of the decomposing pools. Tillage explicitly affects the soil organic matter turnover rate through tool-specific coefficients. Unlike most models, the turnover of soil organic matter does not follow first order kinetics. Each soil layer has a specific maximum capacity to accumulate C or C saturation (S_x) that depends on texture and controls the turnover rate. It is shown in an analytical solution that S_x is a parameter with major influence in the model C dynamics. Testing with a 65-yr data set from the dryland wheat growing region in Oregon shows that the model adequately simulates the S_C dynamics in the topsoil (top 0.3 m) for three different treatments. Three key model parameters, the optimal decomposition and humification rates and a factor controlling the effect of soil moisture and temperature on the decomposition rate, showed low uncertainty as determined by generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation. Nonetheless, the parameter set that provided accurate simulations in the topsoil tended to overestimate S_C in the subsoil, suggesting that a mechanism that expresses at depth might not be represented in the current sub-model structure. The explicit integration of C, N, and P fluxes allows for a more cohesive simulation of nutrient cycling in the SWAT model. The sub-model has to be tested in forestland and rangeland in addition to agricultural land, and in diverse soils with extreme properties such high or low pH, an organic horizon, or volcanic soils.     

What does ecological modelling model? A proposed classification of ecological niche models based on their underlying methods

Species distribution model is the term most frequently used in ecological modelling, but other authors used instead predictive habitat distribution model or species-habitat models. A consensual ecological modelling terminology that avoids misunderstandings and takes into account the ecological niche theory does not exist at present. Moreover, different studies differ in the type of niche that is represented by similar distribution models. I propose to use as standard ecological modelling terminology the terms “ecological niche”, “potential niche”, “realized niche” models (for modelling their respective niches), and “habitat suitability map” (for the output of the niche models). Therefore, the user can understand more easily that models always forecast species’ niche and relate more closely the different types of niche models.     

论开展主要环境质量指标浓度考核

针对现行环境质量考核体系中存在问题,选取主要的环境质量考核指标,提出逐步推行浓度值考核设想,并对比分析该考核办法与现行比例考核办法的优劣。